And today there wasn't a lot of it.
We officially traded the least amount of shares since the pandemic hit at 51m shares traded vs the 100 day MA of 148m. And it showed in the price action.
Whenever you have low volume like this it doesn't take much to move price, and people on both sides can infuse some volume in order to move the price their direction. At the end of the day today the bulls did just that.
You can see it in the tape. And the late day rescue operation to close SPY and SPX above their key levels was obvious. What they do is they flash 10,000 to 20,000 share buy orders in the book and the algos take off in the opposite direction to push price whichever way they desire. This also acts as a buy wall when people start trying to sell into it as well. Some of the only meaningful volume we had today was for this rescue operation to get the price back above $315.14, and more importantly $315.52 which is back outside the range after they attempted and failed to do it this morning. Bold move frontrunning the weekly jobless claims tomorrow though.
I want to point out again how this pattern looks eerily like the pattern we had back in early June when we had that island top.
Another thing i want to point out is that the SPX was green today majority of the day, but like 380+ of it's 500 companies that are in it were red.. What does this tell us? the supremacy of names like AAPL, and MSFT. The FANG stocks hold (probably more now) 20% of the S&P market cap. The entire market is on their back, again.
Yesterday's post title was which one was the fakeout, and frankly they both were at this point. I liken it to a washing machine where people get washed out by this chop trading. They gave it the ol college try this morning with a last minute gap up and they took us out of the range only to run out of steam and give it back up and all markets started to look like they were going to roll over when almost all of them hit some sort of support. IWM the uptrend line in the triangle. SPY the top trendline from the megaphone patter. QQQ the neckline of a H&S. The buy the dip crowd was called back to active duty today in the clutch. The save on all these was pretty impressive i might add.
As i've said the past couple days anything above the range we just left (again) is bullish. Usually hourly and daily closes being the metric. Today, in that first hourly they barely held it before giving it up. They were not going to let the daily close below. But, this is with a caveat. They need to follow through. On both the buy and sell side there's been a lack of follow through, participation, volume. And that usually points to negativity without a positive catalyst. And again the catalyst i think we're looking for is earnings which don't start till next week. But, the path of least resistance is up. Majority of big money owns stocks. So they obviously win if price goes higher. Algos in low volume environments like this will generally just slowly crawl us upwards until actual buying or selling enters the market. We need to fill the gap at $319 if the bulls wish to have their "new bull market" stay intact. And i just want to note again, that NFLX, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN can drag the entire market higher with it by themselves. But that's not a healthy market. It's a bubble. But, a bubble can go on as long as it wants before it pops. And pair that with the current Fed we have right now and the sky's the limit, not even the sky. Outer space. AMZN can get to $5k, AAPL to $1k, and TSLA to $3500 before something finally pops it. Keep that in mind. This past decade's bull market has been a bear genocide and to a lot of people it's still alive and well. Just ask the people trading anything on NDX.
The 5m showing the gap up at open and the immediate shot back into the bull comfort zone only to have themselves drop the ball and a trade back to the critical zones where we consolidated and bear flagged before finally trading through it. This is the only other time we had any meaningful volume other than the late day rescue op. After a couple false starts trying to get the ball rolling back to $315.14 they finally caught a line in the last hour. How do i know that's where they wanted to take us? Well, it's an important number. And look what they did once we got there. They essentially just stopped and defended. This is where those 10k-20k buy orders show up in the actual book. When they need to support price. Bottom line? We're above $315.14, bullish. We're above the range at $315.52, bullish. It's a statement.
Hourly shows the same. They got their hourly close above and then they defended it until close. This is also what i mean about bearish patterns doing the exact opposite of what they should in markets like these
Daily showing the same, a bullish close over an important level. But, i do want to point out the similarities in the patterns from last month, to this month. Literally the days almost match up
SPX squabbling over it's breakout area all day mostly below it before trading right through it in the last hour
The daily opening literally $1 over it's resistance/breakout area. Think that's a coincidence?
ES looks like an absolute mess. That trendline it's hovering over is the downtrend line that we created when we had this area as a supply zone
You can see it better on the daily. Actually kind of looks like it's bullflagging right now
IWM opening below support and actually regaining it, and then giving it up. Look at that save at the uptrend line
That is a perfect tag and retrace. Starting to run out of room though
VIX failing to confirm the reversal today but stayed above support. Also looks like it may be consolidating for a move DOWN (bearflag)
QQQ - look at that save
This never ends well
Still 20 mins left but Silver!! My boy!! You did it! If we get this daily close silver is going to be folowing big brother gold to gainsville
Gold, doin the thing. Anybody take this trade?
The ten yr was literally unchanged all day basically. The bull case would be a lot more bull like if this was cooperating. Currently not signaling any type of risk on environment
DXY just being a chart traders best friend. Textbook break, retest, and continuation. This is helpful to equities
Ok i was saving these for last. These are the combined, and SPX only put call rations. Interesting divergences today. Market wide we just printed the SECOND most bullish reading since when? LAST MONTH, particularly at the top, June 8th. Which was a day before the island top....... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
And here's the interesting part. SPX is actually bearish. Put call ration indicating big money thinks we may be going downward. KEEP THIS SHIT IN MIND.
Last week we had bearish initial jobless claims and that took some of the wind out of the sails of the bulls on the massive jobs beat we had. So one could assume more businesses have shut down since last week, and if jobs are heading in the wrong direction that's a quantifiable negative to the bull case besides the fed put. They get released at 8 A.M EST. Keep your head on a swivel when they come out. Also watch what futures do tonight as the overnight is always primed for shens.
Targets both directions still stand. We only hit my target of $315.14 today.
Hope you had a good day trading! Thanks for reading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
We officially traded the least amount of shares since the pandemic hit at 51m shares traded vs the 100 day MA of 148m. And it showed in the price action.
Whenever you have low volume like this it doesn't take much to move price, and people on both sides can infuse some volume in order to move the price their direction. At the end of the day today the bulls did just that.
You can see it in the tape. And the late day rescue operation to close SPY and SPX above their key levels was obvious. What they do is they flash 10,000 to 20,000 share buy orders in the book and the algos take off in the opposite direction to push price whichever way they desire. This also acts as a buy wall when people start trying to sell into it as well. Some of the only meaningful volume we had today was for this rescue operation to get the price back above $315.14, and more importantly $315.52 which is back outside the range after they attempted and failed to do it this morning. Bold move frontrunning the weekly jobless claims tomorrow though.
I want to point out again how this pattern looks eerily like the pattern we had back in early June when we had that island top.
Another thing i want to point out is that the SPX was green today majority of the day, but like 380+ of it's 500 companies that are in it were red.. What does this tell us? the supremacy of names like AAPL, and MSFT. The FANG stocks hold (probably more now) 20% of the S&P market cap. The entire market is on their back, again.
Yesterday's post title was which one was the fakeout, and frankly they both were at this point. I liken it to a washing machine where people get washed out by this chop trading. They gave it the ol college try this morning with a last minute gap up and they took us out of the range only to run out of steam and give it back up and all markets started to look like they were going to roll over when almost all of them hit some sort of support. IWM the uptrend line in the triangle. SPY the top trendline from the megaphone patter. QQQ the neckline of a H&S. The buy the dip crowd was called back to active duty today in the clutch. The save on all these was pretty impressive i might add.
As i've said the past couple days anything above the range we just left (again) is bullish. Usually hourly and daily closes being the metric. Today, in that first hourly they barely held it before giving it up. They were not going to let the daily close below. But, this is with a caveat. They need to follow through. On both the buy and sell side there's been a lack of follow through, participation, volume. And that usually points to negativity without a positive catalyst. And again the catalyst i think we're looking for is earnings which don't start till next week. But, the path of least resistance is up. Majority of big money owns stocks. So they obviously win if price goes higher. Algos in low volume environments like this will generally just slowly crawl us upwards until actual buying or selling enters the market. We need to fill the gap at $319 if the bulls wish to have their "new bull market" stay intact. And i just want to note again, that NFLX, AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, and AMZN can drag the entire market higher with it by themselves. But that's not a healthy market. It's a bubble. But, a bubble can go on as long as it wants before it pops. And pair that with the current Fed we have right now and the sky's the limit, not even the sky. Outer space. AMZN can get to $5k, AAPL to $1k, and TSLA to $3500 before something finally pops it. Keep that in mind. This past decade's bull market has been a bear genocide and to a lot of people it's still alive and well. Just ask the people trading anything on NDX.
The 5m showing the gap up at open and the immediate shot back into the bull comfort zone only to have themselves drop the ball and a trade back to the critical zones where we consolidated and bear flagged before finally trading through it. This is the only other time we had any meaningful volume other than the late day rescue op. After a couple false starts trying to get the ball rolling back to $315.14 they finally caught a line in the last hour. How do i know that's where they wanted to take us? Well, it's an important number. And look what they did once we got there. They essentially just stopped and defended. This is where those 10k-20k buy orders show up in the actual book. When they need to support price. Bottom line? We're above $315.14, bullish. We're above the range at $315.52, bullish. It's a statement.
Hourly shows the same. They got their hourly close above and then they defended it until close. This is also what i mean about bearish patterns doing the exact opposite of what they should in markets like these
Daily showing the same, a bullish close over an important level. But, i do want to point out the similarities in the patterns from last month, to this month. Literally the days almost match up
SPX squabbling over it's breakout area all day mostly below it before trading right through it in the last hour
The daily opening literally $1 over it's resistance/breakout area. Think that's a coincidence?
ES looks like an absolute mess. That trendline it's hovering over is the downtrend line that we created when we had this area as a supply zone
You can see it better on the daily. Actually kind of looks like it's bullflagging right now
IWM opening below support and actually regaining it, and then giving it up. Look at that save at the uptrend line
That is a perfect tag and retrace. Starting to run out of room though
VIX failing to confirm the reversal today but stayed above support. Also looks like it may be consolidating for a move DOWN (bearflag)
QQQ - look at that save
This never ends well
Still 20 mins left but Silver!! My boy!! You did it! If we get this daily close silver is going to be folowing big brother gold to gainsville
Gold, doin the thing. Anybody take this trade?
The ten yr was literally unchanged all day basically. The bull case would be a lot more bull like if this was cooperating. Currently not signaling any type of risk on environment
DXY just being a chart traders best friend. Textbook break, retest, and continuation. This is helpful to equities
Ok i was saving these for last. These are the combined, and SPX only put call rations. Interesting divergences today. Market wide we just printed the SECOND most bullish reading since when? LAST MONTH, particularly at the top, June 8th. Which was a day before the island top....... HMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
And here's the interesting part. SPX is actually bearish. Put call ration indicating big money thinks we may be going downward. KEEP THIS SHIT IN MIND.
Last week we had bearish initial jobless claims and that took some of the wind out of the sails of the bulls on the massive jobs beat we had. So one could assume more businesses have shut down since last week, and if jobs are heading in the wrong direction that's a quantifiable negative to the bull case besides the fed put. They get released at 8 A.M EST. Keep your head on a swivel when they come out. Also watch what futures do tonight as the overnight is always primed for shens.
Targets both directions still stand. We only hit my target of $315.14 today.
Hope you had a good day trading! Thanks for reading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Comment:
Small beat on jobless claims but the market seems to not be too enthused so far.
Comment:
So ES is flat but NQ is up like .6%.
Comment:
The trick is breaking that blue horizontal trend line, if they go hopefully they can get the gap fill at $319
Comment:
Gap filled from this morning. The bogey is $315.14, if they give it up that's a bearish tone to the day.
Comment:
This is the reason we're not going to roll over. QQQ
Comment:
nice defense of $315.52 which is the breakout area.
Comment:
Just saw 14.5k shares on the buy side for SPY..
Comment:
Algo pop on the House and NY state being able to get Trump's tax returns. We'll see if the bears can take control.
Comment:
Apparently the street feels this is a big deal. The market's spooked.
Comment:
Volumes good. Strike 1 against the bulls giving up that level on a 5m close. Bears are hijacking the trade.
Comment:
Nice fight over the hourly closed. Closed above by two pennies. Decent battleground right here.
Comment:
If we break this trendline from the megaphone pattern the gap fill at $312.10 is right there.
Comment:
QQQ just filled the gap
Comment:
IWM breaking down out of it's triangle.. we'll see if everything follows
Comment:
Game on
Comment:
Second target hit, gap filled. Next target is gap at $310.20.
Comment:
Volume's money but we just tagged the 15m 200MA. They're going to try and bounce us or maybe consolidate here. On the hourly/higher TF's there's still room to run.
Comment:
Bullish divergences on the 5m barely bleeding over to the 15m. People are buying this dip. There's still half a day left of trading. The daily looks completely blown, the question is are they going to let it close like that. This does not mean we can not go lower.
RSI wise the hourly on up have plenty of room to the downside.
RSI wise the hourly on up have plenty of room to the downside.
Comment:
They'll most likely try and get the hourly to close above $312.10
Comment:
Good try, still short. Bear's have control.
Comment:
Bulls with the steal. Let's see if they close us above that trendline again.
Comment:
Next hourly closes in 8 minutes. I'm willing to chalk this move up to a short cover that turned into a squeeze. They're fighting for that trendline but it looks like everyone's on lunch. We're just above the .382 fib on the day at this level.
Comment:
This is getting comedic at this point. Obviously hourly closed below but they're whacking away at it. Eventually it'll break.
Comment:
ES is struggling to stay above it's downtrend line as well.
Comment:
Alright boys and girls. We're at the .5 fib. This relatively has been low volume besides that last 5m candle and the candle to get us to the trendline. This is the bulls counter attack. Still a lot of time left. Buy the dip crowd called back to action.
Comment:
IWM retaking it's triangle trendline..
Comment:
Someone just flashed a 28k buy side order.. We'll see if they catch a line here before close.
Comment:
We'll see if they can hold the line. It's anyone's game right now for the daily close.
Comment:
Bears gonna let them have it?
Comment:
QQQ has fully retraced..
Comment:
I'll just leave this right here...
Comment:
So far this is a decent rejection. I fully expect end of day shenanigans.
Comment:
They're trying to pad the daily close. They need to close above $314.61.
