And a successful goal line defense, on SPY at least.
So. Jobs day. Another beat, and the market acted accordingly. But honestly i was thinking they'd use this to get use through these critical levels. Almost one after the other we got the June non farms payroll number, and initial jobless claims from the .gov. One was a beat, the other a miss. Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator, non farm payrolls are a lagging indicator. With that being said that threw some cold water one the bulls almost immediately.
Obviously a short week this week with America's bday this weekend, so anytime you have holidays like this volume has a tendency to die off the closer you get to the weekend as everyone migrates to the hamptons for the long weekend. Also, in general summers can be kind of lame in general as a lot of the big money guys and girls (rich people) take their yachts to Tuscany or some shit. But other than that summers are usually slow. This is not a normal summer.
So goal line defense. SPY it worked, SPX it did not. That's two times the bulls defended my number at $312.10. But SPX failed to close above the top trendline from the multi year megaphone pattern which was their target for close.
This $314/$315 area has turned out to be a pretty serious resistance/supply zone. And at this point (barring a gap up on Monday) we're range bound. Technically we got rejected from this level but it wasn't with as much conviction as i would have liked to see. So come Monday or early next week i'd expect them to try and gap us over this level if we do not trade away from this area. We could always just consolidate near here as well. But normally what i'd expect is a retracement from this weeks move. A 50% retracement would take us back to the high from last Thursday's short squeeze at $317.43 almost to a T. To me it's significant that we got all the way back up here and we didn't make a new high. We barely wicked a new high, but did not close above. The pattern today looks a lot like the last time we were up here 06/23. We broke my 5m, and 1h trendlines which were basically straight up anyways but we finally had a late day sell off taking us away from this level. Bear sneak attack while rich people weren't looking or people like me were literally contemplating taking a nap because trade was so boring. But, in reality we just had a huge move from the bottom of last week's move this entire week and we failed to break higher today, so profit taking is rational and i doubt a lot of people wanted to hold anything over the long weekend. The questions is if there's going to be follow through next week.
DJI, XLF, and IWM all had notably bearish closes while NDX hit another ATH again. Tug of war. Part of the answer to the Monday question is if NDX crew wants to take profit next week as well. That thing is like a money printer over there right now. VIX and bonds are also signalling storm clouds as well. So time will tell.
5m showing a strong open and the expedition into the supply area only to turn around to go test $312.10, and the gap we had just made. We made a low of $312.04 and immediately traded away from it and then it looks like everyone went home for the week. Volume was horrible. There were multiple 5m candles with under 200k in volume which is absolutely horrible. BAC had more volume than SPY today. Fast forward to about 2 oclock and people started unwinding positions and the selling picked up. We gave up the megaphone trendline, and even $312.10 until literally the last minute of trade where they mounted a decent rescue op to get us closed above. $312 man.
The hourly showing this ridiculous face ripping up trend from the bottom and that expedition into the supply zone only to get faded. Ended up breaking the trend line but we did find support on the 13 period EMA. Based off the volume in those last few 5m candles it looked like there were people there to catch the shares being sold. We'll see.
That is a pretty bearish close though
Daily showing the same. We did close below the top trendline from the megaphone which has proven to be a battleground. Volume was even less than it was yesterday
Weekly showing mixed signals. The actual close was bullish, almost printing a bullish engulfing, but three weekly candles in a row have been rejected from this zone and that megaphone trend line.. Again, if they're going to get through this zone they're most likely going to have to gap us over it
ES actually tagging and not breaking it's uptrend. That blue trendline is the uptrend line from the consolidation zone we had in May
This is a bullish chart, but ES has it's work cut out for it. Also struggling with the megaphone trendline
IWM same deal, opened near the resistance level. Immediately rejected and then printed this cool bearish boot/flag pattern. IWM also got the rescue op as well bringing it back within it's intraday lows
Hourly finding support on the 200 period MA, but also looks like it's losing momentum
$144.93 is the resistance level here. Also contending with that .236 fib and 20 period MA
Again, three weeks in a row trying to break back up to this level. Also we had a weekly 50/200 period MA cross this week which is not a good sign either
VIX with a perfect tag of it's 200 period MA. We all know what happened last time we got down here
XLF with what looks like a huge rejection from it's resistance level as well. But look at volume
DJI again failing to get inside it's trendline
Been neglecting DJT lately. Had a huge gap up yesterday that got completely faded with another attempt today
Look familiar? Now this is pure conjecture. It looks like NDX was seeing profit taking start today as well, but it doesn't mean it has to correct like it did last time
Cup and handle??? If silver breaks this price level and holds it's going much, much higher imo
Gold with another test of it's 13 period EMA today as well. I think golds going to be having a pretty serious move here shortly. Fun fact: spot gold actually closed at $1776 today. Fuck yea gold traders
Bonds, starting to point towards a little bit of jitters elsewhere in the market. This is indicative of a risk off sentiment with a bullish engulfing as well
We're range bound until we're not. This $15 range from $300 to $315 is going to be our doldrums until we break out of here. And once we do, just like the breakout from May, we're going to move. Look at this as like the coiling up of a spring. But on a huge index that tracks the entire economy. Downside target would be $280, upside target $335.
I personally shed some calls today and at one point was -34 delta. I finished the day at -27 delta. Also picked up some 315/316 credit spreads. I'm completely screwed if we gap up on Monday but the R/R is there. I hope you had a good week trading and i wanted to thank everyone who's pre subscribed to the website. Over the weekend we should be able to get a decent amount done. I really do appreciate everyone's support.
Now everyone have a safe and fun 4th of July (my favorite holiday) and i'll speak to all of you in a few days.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
So. Jobs day. Another beat, and the market acted accordingly. But honestly i was thinking they'd use this to get use through these critical levels. Almost one after the other we got the June non farms payroll number, and initial jobless claims from the .gov. One was a beat, the other a miss. Initial jobless claims are a leading indicator, non farm payrolls are a lagging indicator. With that being said that threw some cold water one the bulls almost immediately.
Obviously a short week this week with America's bday this weekend, so anytime you have holidays like this volume has a tendency to die off the closer you get to the weekend as everyone migrates to the hamptons for the long weekend. Also, in general summers can be kind of lame in general as a lot of the big money guys and girls (rich people) take their yachts to Tuscany or some shit. But other than that summers are usually slow. This is not a normal summer.
So goal line defense. SPY it worked, SPX it did not. That's two times the bulls defended my number at $312.10. But SPX failed to close above the top trendline from the multi year megaphone pattern which was their target for close.
This $314/$315 area has turned out to be a pretty serious resistance/supply zone. And at this point (barring a gap up on Monday) we're range bound. Technically we got rejected from this level but it wasn't with as much conviction as i would have liked to see. So come Monday or early next week i'd expect them to try and gap us over this level if we do not trade away from this area. We could always just consolidate near here as well. But normally what i'd expect is a retracement from this weeks move. A 50% retracement would take us back to the high from last Thursday's short squeeze at $317.43 almost to a T. To me it's significant that we got all the way back up here and we didn't make a new high. We barely wicked a new high, but did not close above. The pattern today looks a lot like the last time we were up here 06/23. We broke my 5m, and 1h trendlines which were basically straight up anyways but we finally had a late day sell off taking us away from this level. Bear sneak attack while rich people weren't looking or people like me were literally contemplating taking a nap because trade was so boring. But, in reality we just had a huge move from the bottom of last week's move this entire week and we failed to break higher today, so profit taking is rational and i doubt a lot of people wanted to hold anything over the long weekend. The questions is if there's going to be follow through next week.
DJI, XLF, and IWM all had notably bearish closes while NDX hit another ATH again. Tug of war. Part of the answer to the Monday question is if NDX crew wants to take profit next week as well. That thing is like a money printer over there right now. VIX and bonds are also signalling storm clouds as well. So time will tell.
5m showing a strong open and the expedition into the supply area only to turn around to go test $312.10, and the gap we had just made. We made a low of $312.04 and immediately traded away from it and then it looks like everyone went home for the week. Volume was horrible. There were multiple 5m candles with under 200k in volume which is absolutely horrible. BAC had more volume than SPY today. Fast forward to about 2 oclock and people started unwinding positions and the selling picked up. We gave up the megaphone trendline, and even $312.10 until literally the last minute of trade where they mounted a decent rescue op to get us closed above. $312 man.
The hourly showing this ridiculous face ripping up trend from the bottom and that expedition into the supply zone only to get faded. Ended up breaking the trend line but we did find support on the 13 period EMA. Based off the volume in those last few 5m candles it looked like there were people there to catch the shares being sold. We'll see.
That is a pretty bearish close though
Daily showing the same. We did close below the top trendline from the megaphone which has proven to be a battleground. Volume was even less than it was yesterday
Weekly showing mixed signals. The actual close was bullish, almost printing a bullish engulfing, but three weekly candles in a row have been rejected from this zone and that megaphone trend line.. Again, if they're going to get through this zone they're most likely going to have to gap us over it
ES actually tagging and not breaking it's uptrend. That blue trendline is the uptrend line from the consolidation zone we had in May
This is a bullish chart, but ES has it's work cut out for it. Also struggling with the megaphone trendline
IWM same deal, opened near the resistance level. Immediately rejected and then printed this cool bearish boot/flag pattern. IWM also got the rescue op as well bringing it back within it's intraday lows
Hourly finding support on the 200 period MA, but also looks like it's losing momentum
$144.93 is the resistance level here. Also contending with that .236 fib and 20 period MA
Again, three weeks in a row trying to break back up to this level. Also we had a weekly 50/200 period MA cross this week which is not a good sign either
VIX with a perfect tag of it's 200 period MA. We all know what happened last time we got down here
XLF with what looks like a huge rejection from it's resistance level as well. But look at volume
DJI again failing to get inside it's trendline
Been neglecting DJT lately. Had a huge gap up yesterday that got completely faded with another attempt today
Look familiar? Now this is pure conjecture. It looks like NDX was seeing profit taking start today as well, but it doesn't mean it has to correct like it did last time
Cup and handle??? If silver breaks this price level and holds it's going much, much higher imo
Gold with another test of it's 13 period EMA today as well. I think golds going to be having a pretty serious move here shortly. Fun fact: spot gold actually closed at $1776 today. Fuck yea gold traders
Bonds, starting to point towards a little bit of jitters elsewhere in the market. This is indicative of a risk off sentiment with a bullish engulfing as well
We're range bound until we're not. This $15 range from $300 to $315 is going to be our doldrums until we break out of here. And once we do, just like the breakout from May, we're going to move. Look at this as like the coiling up of a spring. But on a huge index that tracks the entire economy. Downside target would be $280, upside target $335.
I personally shed some calls today and at one point was -34 delta. I finished the day at -27 delta. Also picked up some 315/316 credit spreads. I'm completely screwed if we gap up on Monday but the R/R is there. I hope you had a good week trading and i wanted to thank everyone who's pre subscribed to the website. Over the weekend we should be able to get a decent amount done. I really do appreciate everyone's support.
Now everyone have a safe and fun 4th of July (my favorite holiday) and i'll speak to all of you in a few days.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Comment:
So just wanted to post this as i look around today. This is /NQ. The NDX futures. It's riddled with bearish divergences all the way from technically 2018, but this is just looking at from Jan 2019 till now. Think of bearish divergences on momentum and strength indicators as rot. Slowing withering away the structure. Also keep in mind it that this is not indicative besides the rot. It does not mean the market "has" to do anything. But do not that whenever you have these bearish divergences building gravity is a lot less forgiving on the way day.
Comment:
Off the bat it looks like futures traders are bullish this evening with RTY almost up 1%.
Remember futures were still open on Friday and we did trade down (on low volume). Remember what i said about a gap up tomorrow and anytime this week if we stick around $314-$315.
Remember futures were still open on Friday and we did trade down (on low volume). Remember what i said about a gap up tomorrow and anytime this week if we stick around $314-$315.
Comment:
Ball's in their court.
Comment:
Sure why not.
Comment:
Asia bulls set the tone overnight with the EU feeding into it as well.
Hong kong was up almost 4%
China was up 5%
Nikkei was up almost 2%
And for no clear reason. Only thing i found overnight was CNBC calling it an "increase in bull sentiment"
But we gapped up at futures open and never looked back. So take it as you will.
The bulls need to hold this level till open, and then they need to hold this level the entirety of the day. We're most likely going to open around $316.50-$317 if things don't change drastically over the next hour which would be over resistance.
Hong kong was up almost 4%
China was up 5%
Nikkei was up almost 2%
And for no clear reason. Only thing i found overnight was CNBC calling it an "increase in bull sentiment"
But we gapped up at futures open and never looked back. So take it as you will.
The bulls need to hold this level till open, and then they need to hold this level the entirety of the day. We're most likely going to open around $316.50-$317 if things don't change drastically over the next hour which would be over resistance.
Comment:
Higher we go. Gap at $319.
Comment:
Something in the services numbers spooked the market besides it being a beat. They're trying to recover at this point.
Comment:
Just from watching the tape it looks like bears are defending $317 for some reason. Volume has been alright so far.
Comment:
IWM took it on the chin after the ISM numbers and is having trouble recovering. Kind of looking like it did Thursday.
Comment:
IWM trying to break it's intraday low..
Comment:
Comment:
Volume completely died. There's a 5m candle with 142k shares traded..
Also note the VIX is actually positive right now.
Also note the VIX is actually positive right now.
Comment:
IWM had a change of heart.
Comment:
Another one.
Comment:
Breaking intra day lows on SPY. we'll see if they defend the breakout area or they give up the ghost and go for the gap.
Comment:
We've only traded 40m shares today. If we were to close right now that'd be the least traded since the pandemic. So far they're defending the breakout area. Gametime for bears and bulls here shortly.
I currently have a write up for into to options, a Charting I, Market Nuances. These include things like delta hedging. The character of the market. How to identify support/resistance zones and targets, etc.
By signing up you will not be committed to anything besides an email when we go live with actual content. I'm about 85% done with the ones mentioned above and as soon as we get the website launched and i have time i will add to them.
We're currently doing all of the tedious stuff like formatting and working out some kinks in the blog widget we're going to be using for the daily posts i.e how to post the charts on it seamlessly, how to make sure they're aesthetic and not unwieldy, and to make sure it runs smoothly when we do launch. I want to be able to do live updates throughout the day and also have a comments section or chat section where we can talk about the day, what's happening, and what went on like we do here.
Again i still will be posting on TV after i go live, but the posts will be much more limited, and the posts on the websites much more indepth.
So check it out if you so please. All you're signing up for is to be notified when we launch and 50% off discount when we finally do go live.