merkd1904

Oh you thought they were going to let the monthly close bearish?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
Shenanigans afoot. "Best quarter since 1998!!!".

I heard that multiple times today.

And just like that. The virus doesn't matter. bearish econ data doesn't matter. China and the US possibly entering into a new trade war doesn't matter.

Whoooooooooooooooooosh.

The difference a weekend can make huh?

It's comical. It really is. If you watch the lower time frames you can literally see these people tactically getting to key levels, at key timeframes to try and send us higher. It's almost admirable.

Yesterday i put bullish targets at key levels and said we could hit those all within the first hour. It took two. My bad. And if you were following my posts from yesterday i said if we got a close above last Thursday's high we were going to go to $310. Wasn't expecting that all in the same day.

But here's the thing. $310 was the target. That was also the downsloping trend line from the top of the descending triangle . It was also the breakdown candle high from our gap down early last week. And we got rejected almost completely. Oh, this all happened the last 10 mins too by the way. It only took a 5m candle with over 10 million shares traded in it. There were multiple blocks of 10,000 to 20,000 shares chasing price higher.

Last Friday i said i completely expected this going into the end of the month. Last Friday the monthly candle was looking bad. It was looking to print a shooting star and on the monthly that is a harbinger of bad, bad things to come. So, what do we get? A rescue operation to save the monthly close. Duh. I will admit i wasn't expecting this type of commitment though.

This wasn't based on any econ data, or any particular sector, or any particular news piece. This was pure market manipulation to pad the monthly/quarterly close. Both yesterday and today volume until the last 20 mins of trade was absolutely devoid of anything meaningful. But, as soon as we get close to close all the sudden there's this massive amount of volume that wants to send us upwards. Also, they're not stupid. They know the key technical levels to get us to, and to close above to send us to their intended target. All it takes is some server rooms and a metric fuck ton of money. Which is cheap right now btw.

The only other thesis i have is that was just a massive short cover over the past couple days. I mean ES had over 382k contracts traded in it's last 30 min candle, and like i mentioned SPY had a 5m candle with over 10m shares traded in it. There was a HUGE short position in ES since Mar and it'll be interesting to see if it's still there when CME releases the numbers here in a little bit.

Technically today was significant for a few different reasons. Most bullish , one bearish that didn't happen until the last 5 mins of trade.

First, this is a confirmed reversal from a double bottom off of the $300 level. That's bullish . We took out the high from last Thursday's short squeeze and filled the gap without getting rejected. Bullish . VIX printing a confirmed reversal (actually just repriced to now AS bad looking). Bullish . 10 yr bonds printing a bearish engulfing . Bullish . Volume at average. Bullish .

But, and this is the reason why i think it's synthetic, we hit that last target today. Which was $310. Top of the downtrend line for the descending triangle . Too far too fast. The bulls got carried away in a buying orgy and we got rejected from that level pretty savagely. Technically, to me, they just completed the move. Now, in any other time i'd see this type of move it'd be news induced or the general market sentiment would be raging bull and i wouldn't think twice about following the trend. But that's not reality right now. In normal market conditions when you hit this top trendline the third time, it generally will reverse back down towards support. Now, i also said yesterday that this pattern has a tendency to tell you to go F yourself and it'll just slide right through your trendline and keep going while it leaves you in the dust. But we're not in a raging bull market currently. Now, i could be wrong and i have been wrong before but this is my take on it. That was their target. If not, we'll head out of the triangle and most likely go fill the last two gaps above.

So, tomorrow will tell. These past two days have just been strange price action wise and i said above what i think it was and will be proved or disproved going into the latter half of the week. We also have the start of a new earnings season warming up.

5m showing another pump to the key levels, and infusions of volume to clear them. Key closes above them, and continuations. Look at that those last two candles. And i stand corrected. TWO 5m candles with over 10m shares traded. 12m in one, 10.4 in the other. That second to last 5m candle is a .5% 5m candle, and the one right after a -.5% candle with a complete retrace.


The hourly showing an incredible counter trend rally after the liquidity trap yesterday. This is over an $11 move to the upside in two days. Taking the high from last Thursday and filling the gap. Hitting my targets of $305.87, $306.20, $307.31, and $310 just for good measure. All in one day. I drew that box you see as a target for tomorrow. Things to note - Rejection from the trendline , rejection from $310, a close below the .618 fib. Descending triangle is still very much in play

Monthly showing a bounce off of the $300 zone and a confirmed reversal and a bounce today off of the BBand basis, average is over 100m, but 100 day MA is still around 180m

Ok, remember how i said shenanigans afoot? I just noticed this. SPX actually closed AT $3100. We all remember how important this number was a couple weeks ago. Well, hey, we're back. We literally closed at $3100.03. SPY closed at $308.36. That's the equivalent of 20 point arbitrage between the two. I have literally never seen that before. Also with a rejection actually before they got to the trend line

But futures did *insert confused guy meme here*. Look at that wick. Tagged $3100 almost perfectly and then faded all of it. Contract rolls maybe?

ES daily with a double bottom and rejection from BBand basis

IWM 5m also showing the gap fill and bullish tones. It was follow the leader to SPY all day today.

Hourly showing a rejection from the top of it's breakdown candle high as well

This is an overwhelmingly bullish chart right now

Supported by this. It didn't close as bad as i thought it did finding support at it's .618 fib, but still. Out of the consolidation range, downwards

DJI was only about on average about .3% all day today because you guessed it, BA was down. And looooow and behold the last 15 mins of trading it shoots up to being up over 200 points

Perfect retest of the trend line with the confluence of MA's acting as gate keepers

Maybe maybe maybe..

What's this look like to you?

Silver catching a bid getting out of it's range but.. Volume??? *confused guy meme*

Gold retaking $1800 from it's 2011 self and pretty sure you can all this a confirmed breakout from it's range

Bearish engulfing on the 10 yr..

I just want to post a look around the monthly closes for the broader market:

Retail
Consumer discretionary ( aka AMZN with some other companies)
Chip makers
Small caps ( IWM )
Healthcare
Banks

Alright, "BEST QUARTER SINCE 1998!!!!" is over. So where do we go next? Honestly this ground swell of bullish momentum and the evaporation of pessimism has me thinking i may have been bamboozled but when you zoom out things are not all rosy. We still have the island reversal confirmed by another smaller island reversal in the midst of a descending triangle . We're at the mercy of the econ data the rest of the week, and then earnings starting next week.

As always, keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.

This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.


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Comment: Just taking a gander around the market because it's EOM and came across this. What does this look like? Thought i'd share.

/VX, VIX futures.

Comment: Not sure if it's coming from here or the EU but sellers have shown up. Bears playing defense. We'll see if it bleeds into open.

Comment: Private payrolls missed. But big money must have seen something bullish in it because we're off our lows.

Lots of ISM numbers starting at 9:45

Comment: Buy the dip crowd got back from vacation apparently.

Comment: I got nothin.

Comment: CNBC reporting that we're opening higher on positive vaccine data and strong jobs numbers.

We missed on the jobs report.

The vaccine data was from Pfizer, was released online, was not peer reviewed, and all it was is that it created antibodies.

This is a wall of money.

Comment: First target is $312.10 gap fill, second is the breakdown candle high from a week or two ago at $314.35. ISM numbrs out in 10 mins.

Comment: ISM mostly beat but still mixed.
Comment: Looks like most the buying was done in the premarket. We'll see where the market makers and algos take us the rest of the day. The tone is overwhelmingly bullish right now. But watch out for whipsaws, we're starting to get overbought.

Comment: Either that was a fucking huge stop hit or we just popped the algos. Stay tuned

Comment: Ok two possible scenarios. One being that we got an hourly close well above $310, and now they're consolidating us above this important number and we melt higher.

Second being we're printing a H&S on the 5m. I think if they give up $310 and close back inside the trendline we're headed lower.

We got an hourly close above so far and this hourly candle looks like it wants to close above as well. If we do that's bullish.

Comment: Holy shit just looked at IWM. Note this.

Comment: Gold's also shitting the bed. If you're bold that might be a buying opportunity. 13 period EMA at 1765 on /GC continuous contract.

Comment: They gave it up...

Comment: SPX WELL back into the trendling.

Comment: Volume's dead. Algos want to take us higher. That last 5m only had 224k. We'll see where volume wants to take us when it shows back up.

Comment: Also something to keep your eye on - XLF.

Comment: For post above
Comment: IWM's second bounce off of support, let's see if it holds.

Comment: Target is 22.76 if this does end up playing out.

Comment: Was saving this till after close but just in case it plays out early. This is what i have on the 5 min. Megaphone pattern within a rising wedge, as well as an bearish RSI divergence. With the level 10 strength we saw this morning i was hesitant, but with the mood changing (again) i wanted to pre post it.

Comment: We've been ranging with the BBands tight the past two hours. Hopefully we'll have a move here shortly.

Comment: We're .60 away from the gap fill. Why they haven't taken it yet, i don't know.

Comments

As bearish as I've been for the past month, and as artificial as the past 2 days have looked, I'm really starting to wonder about this. Fund managers, brokers, financial advisors, fiduciaries, etc. all want the market to keep going up; they want to get right back to work, but need the go-ahead sign. I think it's possible that fund managers were worried about another EoQ bottleneck in the repo market that could force equity liquidations, and we got through it without too much hiccup. And then the double bottom bounce off of the 200dMA, AND the unreal 98.1 consumer confidence report today ... I'm really starting to think that they're all ready to just fake this thing into Q3. But i still feel like that doesn't make any sense, because they all know how horrible the Q3 data is going to be .. unless they know it's going to be manipulated with adequate window-dressing. I'm irresponsibly still holding a short position and am assuming they're going to push this as high as they can to frontrun the data release
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@kaxo1, Yea the issue is there's no clear trend. It's just been this washing machine thunderdome type market that's incredibly hard to trade. Punji pits and land mines.
+1 Reply
@kaxo1, Agree with everything you said. Still, though, it seems like a setup for an epic rug pull of the Robinhooders. Time will tell.
+1 Reply
merkd1904 mcjohnson72637
@mcjohnson72637, That's all this is. Washing everyone out. Most new traders can't trade this type of chop and end up losing on theta or overtrading. But at the same time i've never seen this type of volatility or mixed signals myself. This is pretty nutty to trade through.
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Oof I may have been bamboozled as well. Holding until tomorrow and added some positive delta in case this melts up and incinerates me. Nice to have your insight to at least give me a sliver of hope !
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merkd1904 horacejunior
@horacejunior, Yea i didn't touch anything either. I had unloaded some credit spreads i had from Friday at open yesterday. We closed yesterday and i was at -8. We closed today and i'm at -2, and that's without me even touching anything.
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horacejunior merkd1904
@merkd1904, fingers crossed. As per your picture, i would say a bull flag but I really couldn’t tell you since my eyes are swollen shut from the beating today
+1 Reply
merkd1904 horacejunior
@horacejunior, Haha i feel you on that. I was just looking at ES. And majority of that volume in the last 30 mins was in the last 5 min candle of the cash session, and it was 194k contracts retracing that move in SPY, or wherever it came from. So that's a little encouraging. And yea, VX looking like a old timey British navy battleflag.

+1 Reply
horacejunior merkd1904
@merkd1904, yeah, that was nuts. there are always weird hidden "quantum veil" like truths out there. that felt like one. sort of like last thursday when there were several last minute 100k put contracts on SPY @300 when everyone was celebrating the close above resistance. who knows!?
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