I heard that multiple times today.
And just like that. The virus doesn't matter. econ data doesn't matter. China and the US possibly entering into a new trade war doesn't matter.
The difference a weekend can make huh?
It's comical. It really is. If you watch the lower time frames you can literally see these people tactically getting to key levels, at key timeframes to try and send us higher. It's almost admirable.
Yesterday i put targets at key levels and said we could hit those all within the first hour. It took two. My bad. And if you were following my posts from yesterday i said if we got a close above last Thursday's high we were going to go to $310. Wasn't expecting that all in the same day.
But here's the thing. $310 was the target. That was also the downsloping from the top of the . It was also the breakdown candle high from our gap down early last week. And we got rejected almost completely. Oh, this all happened the last 10 mins too by the way. It only took a 5m candle with over 10 million shares traded in it. There were multiple blocks of 10,000 to 20,000 shares chasing price higher.
Last Friday i said i completely expected this going into the end of the month. Last Friday the monthly candle was looking bad. It was looking to print a and on the monthly that is a harbinger of bad, bad things to come. So, what do we get? A rescue operation to save the monthly close. Duh. I will admit i wasn't expecting this type of commitment though.
This wasn't based on any econ data, or any particular sector, or any particular news piece. This was pure market manipulation to pad the monthly/quarterly close. Both yesterday and today until the last 20 mins of trade was absolutely devoid of anything meaningful. But, as soon as we get close to close all the sudden there's this massive amount of that wants to send us upwards. Also, they're not stupid. They know the key technical levels to get us to, and to close above to send us to their intended target. All it takes is some server rooms and a metric fuck ton of money. Which is cheap right now btw.
The only other thesis i have is that was just a massive short cover over the past couple days. I mean ES had over 382k contracts traded in it's last 30 min candle, and like i mentioned SPY had a 5m candle with over 10m shares traded in it. There was a HUGE short position in ES since Mar and it'll be interesting to see if it's still there when releases the numbers here in a little bit.
Technically today was significant for a few different reasons. Most , one that didn't happen until the last 5 mins of trade.
First, this is a confirmed reversal from a off of the $300 level. That's . We took out the high from last Thursday's short squeeze and filled the gap without getting rejected. . VIX printing a confirmed reversal (actually just repriced to now AS bad looking). . 10 yr bonds printing a . . at average. .
But, and this is the reason why i think it's synthetic, we hit that last target today. Which was $310. Top of the downtrend line for the . Too far too fast. The bulls got carried away in a buying orgy and we got rejected from that level pretty savagely. Technically, to me, they just completed the move. Now, in any other time i'd see this type of move it'd be news induced or the general market sentiment would be raging bull and i wouldn't think twice about following the trend. But that's not reality right now. In normal market conditions when you hit this top the third time, it generally will reverse back down towards support. Now, i also said yesterday that this pattern has a tendency to tell you to go F yourself and it'll just slide right through your and keep going while it leaves you in the dust. But we're not in a raging bull market currently. Now, i could be wrong and i have been wrong before but this is my take on it. That was their target. If not, we'll head out of the triangle and most likely go fill the last two gaps above.
So, tomorrow will tell. These past two days have just been strange price action wise and i said above what i think it was and will be proved or disproved going into the latter half of the week. We also have the start of a new season warming up.
5m showing another pump to the key levels, and infusions of to clear them. Key closes above them, and continuations. Look at that those last two candles. And i stand corrected. TWO 5m candles with over 10m shares traded. 12m in one, 10.4 in the other. That second to last 5m candle is a .5% 5m candle, and the one right after a -.5% candle with a complete retrace.
The hourly showing an incredible counter trend rally after the liquidity trap yesterday. This is over an $11 move to the upside in two days. Taking the high from last Thursday and filling the gap. Hitting my targets of $305.87, $306.20, $307.31, and $310 just for good measure. All in one day. I drew that box you see as a target for tomorrow. Things to note - Rejection from the , rejection from $310, a close below the .618 fib. is still very much in play
Monthly showing a bounce off of the $300 zone and a confirmed reversal and a bounce today off of the BBand basis, average is over 100m, but 100 day MA is still around 180m
Ok, remember how i said shenanigans afoot? I just noticed this. SPX actually closed AT $3100. We all remember how important this number was a couple weeks ago. Well, hey, we're back. We literally closed at $3100.03. SPY closed at $308.36. That's the equivalent of 20 point arbitrage between the two. I have literally never seen that before. Also with a rejection actually before they got to the
But did *insert confused guy meme here*. Look at that wick. Tagged $3100 almost perfectly and then faded all of it. Contract rolls maybe?
ES daily with a and rejection from BBand basis
IWM 5m also showing the gap fill and tones. It was follow the leader to SPY all day today.
Hourly showing a rejection from the top of it's breakdown candle high as well
This is an overwhelmingly chart right now
Supported by this. It didn't close as bad as i thought it did finding support at it's .618 fib, but still. Out of the consolidation range, downwards
DJI was only about on average about .3% all day today because you guessed it, BA was down. And looooow and behold the last 15 mins of trading it shoots up to being up over 200 points
Perfect retest of the with the confluence of MA's acting as gate keepers
Maybe maybe maybe..
What's this look like to you?
Silver catching a bid getting out of it's range but.. Volume??? *confused guy meme*
Gold retaking $1800 from it's 2011 self and pretty sure you can all this a confirmed breakout from it's range
on the 10 yr..
I just want to post a look around the monthly closes for the broader market:
Consumer discretionary ( aka AMZN with some other companies)
Small caps ( IWM )
Alright, "BEST QUARTER SINCE 1998!!!!" is over. So where do we go next? Honestly this ground swell of momentum and the evaporation of pessimism has me thinking i may have been bamboozled but when you zoom out things are not all rosy. We still have the island reversal confirmed by another smaller island reversal in the midst of a . We're at the mercy of the econ data the rest of the week, and then starting next week.
As always, keep your head on a swivel and happy trading.
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
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/VX, VIX futures.
Lots of ISM numbers starting at 9:45
We missed on the jobs report.
The vaccine data was from Pfizer, was released online, was not peer reviewed, and all it was is that it created antibodies.
This is a wall of money.
Second being we're printing a H&S on the 5m. I think if they give up $310 and close back inside the trendline we're headed lower.
We got an hourly close above so far and this hourly candle looks like it wants to close above as well. If we do that's bullish.