That was probably one of the most fun to watch closes in a while.
On TV i have the close at $300.01 (was just remarked to $300.09). How bout them algos? Think that's a coincidence? The big news for the daily is taking the daily 200 period MA. That's significant. But i don't think the bulls, or the five guys in a room are going to give it up that easy.
Today was a marked selling day, but the bears had opposition. It was a decent fight the majority of the day. This further reinforces the fact that yesterday's close was a short squeeze as we slightly gapped down this morning and after like a 10 min fight the bulls got knocked on their ass and it was smooth sailing down into $302. We had multiple bear traps/liquidity hunts if you you day trade or trade on the shorter time frames where it looked like we were going to give it up again and then it reverses. But towards the end of the day the downward momentum was pretty impressive. Volume was also decent majority of the day too, not as high as some of our other down days but the tape was showing some heavy action. Multiple times today both my broker and TV lagged out for about a second or two which was weird, and honestly kind of terrifying. Anyone see this? It's days like today that make trading fun as long as you stick to your plan and don't overtrade.
It's pretty safe to say we've established a trend today and it wants to go down. But, like i said about i don't think the bulls are going to make it that easy. I honestly was surprised that they gave up $300, even on a 5 or 30m timeframe. But note we did not have an hourly close below. That's notable as well. Also note SPX did not even breach $3000 while ES (continuous contract) and SPY did.
IWM was interesting today as it was showing strength in the face of all other indexes, BUT was also it's annual rebalancing day so i'm not sure what to read from that. XLF got absolutely smoked. Which is a complete U turn from yesterday. Which i'm pretty sure might have just been a short cover rally. But you can never tell for sure.
The real story is going to be the monthly close. Currently it looks pretty ugly across most indexes excluding NDX. Now. I'm fully expecting a bull counter attack sometime early next week if anything to salvage the monthly print. And on the other side of that i feel like what's going to get us through this $300/$3000 area may be a bear sneak attack gap down over support.
There's been a noticeable shift in the sentiment of the market from positive to negative. You can literally see the optimism starting to get leeched out of the market via the tape. The bulls today were trying to save a techincal/psychological gaffe by keeping us above $300/$3000 but man, was that a hell of a fight or what? Other notable things today was the 10 yr T note breaking above 139 devisively. Also, this showed more like a technical type move as well as the VIX wasn't acting like maniac today. The past few down days we've had the VIX has made these huge outsized moves that are indivative of panic selling or panic buying of puts.
Another thing of note is around $302 was also ES's decade long trend line from the 09 lows that we were fighting over as well. We closed below that.
Most notably we closed below the most recent lows from the past week or so on all major indexes.
Oh, yea, metals are acting like a haven again today. Which is weird they just decided to do that. Not sure if that's tied to inflation or if bonds got too expensive overnight.
5m showing the day play out. I've circled what i mean by bear traps/liquidity hunts. If you day trade and that was your signal you got burned. Also, note today's close
We still need to break the lows from 06/15, and also we have a mess of things down below to crash into to get to the gap at $296, but again i think the daily is looking at $286 like a snack
But what does SPX look like? Double bottom? Who's to tell. Like i said i think we're going to need to gap over $3000 to make it official
Another daily break out of the triangle, close below the 200 period MA
ES giving up that trendline after a decent squabble over it and a peek down below $3000 just to say hi
ES daily showing it still intact though, and not breaking most recent lows either, but check volume, higher on the daily than SPY
IWM 5 min showing actually more strength than SPX but also printing something pretty ominous
Daily taking out the lows of the past week
Inside day for VIX. Still below it's .382 fib and 100 period MA but it does look like it's coiling up (that could be for a move either way)
NDX now below it's 13 period EMA which is a start, also taking out the lows from earlier in the week. A 2.5% down day for NDX is pretty significant
DJI taking out lows from last week. Target is gap at 24465 and the top of range. Has the 50 and 100 period MA to contend with though
Oof. Gap fill at $21.92 (XLF)
DJT still riding that 100 period MA. But gap fill at $8470. Also has the 50 period MA to deal with
Whereever this breaks it's going to be a pretty large move once it figures it out
Gold with another retest and hold of the top of that flag and also a kiss of the 13 period EMA before reversing nicely
This is most telling to me for a continued move downward. I'd like to see another strong close Monday
I made some decent trades today at open selling some premium on IWM and SPY and day traded some weeklies but i also closed my short calls and puts i had on as hedges (think diagonals) because i think we're finally going to be leaving this trading range. I'm now -14 delta. I am completely expecting to feel some pain early in the week next week as bulls try and lay out some punji traps and landmines trying to take out as many shorts as possible but i do (This is not trading advice).
We still have two trading days till the end of the quarter. But the selling today was pretty overwhelming for the buyers, and that's telling. Today there looked like concerted efforts to try and support the market or gain positions around the $300 or $3000 area. We'll see who comes out on top Monday.
Hope you all had a good trading day today and as always, keep your head on a swivel and watch for shenanigans Monday and Tuesday to pad that monthly candle.
Have a good weekend!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
On TV i have the close at $300.01 (was just remarked to $300.09). How bout them algos? Think that's a coincidence? The big news for the daily is taking the daily 200 period MA. That's significant. But i don't think the bulls, or the five guys in a room are going to give it up that easy.
Today was a marked selling day, but the bears had opposition. It was a decent fight the majority of the day. This further reinforces the fact that yesterday's close was a short squeeze as we slightly gapped down this morning and after like a 10 min fight the bulls got knocked on their ass and it was smooth sailing down into $302. We had multiple bear traps/liquidity hunts if you you day trade or trade on the shorter time frames where it looked like we were going to give it up again and then it reverses. But towards the end of the day the downward momentum was pretty impressive. Volume was also decent majority of the day too, not as high as some of our other down days but the tape was showing some heavy action. Multiple times today both my broker and TV lagged out for about a second or two which was weird, and honestly kind of terrifying. Anyone see this? It's days like today that make trading fun as long as you stick to your plan and don't overtrade.
It's pretty safe to say we've established a trend today and it wants to go down. But, like i said about i don't think the bulls are going to make it that easy. I honestly was surprised that they gave up $300, even on a 5 or 30m timeframe. But note we did not have an hourly close below. That's notable as well. Also note SPX did not even breach $3000 while ES (continuous contract) and SPY did.
IWM was interesting today as it was showing strength in the face of all other indexes, BUT was also it's annual rebalancing day so i'm not sure what to read from that. XLF got absolutely smoked. Which is a complete U turn from yesterday. Which i'm pretty sure might have just been a short cover rally. But you can never tell for sure.
The real story is going to be the monthly close. Currently it looks pretty ugly across most indexes excluding NDX. Now. I'm fully expecting a bull counter attack sometime early next week if anything to salvage the monthly print. And on the other side of that i feel like what's going to get us through this $300/$3000 area may be a bear sneak attack gap down over support.
There's been a noticeable shift in the sentiment of the market from positive to negative. You can literally see the optimism starting to get leeched out of the market via the tape. The bulls today were trying to save a techincal/psychological gaffe by keeping us above $300/$3000 but man, was that a hell of a fight or what? Other notable things today was the 10 yr T note breaking above 139 devisively. Also, this showed more like a technical type move as well as the VIX wasn't acting like maniac today. The past few down days we've had the VIX has made these huge outsized moves that are indivative of panic selling or panic buying of puts.
Another thing of note is around $302 was also ES's decade long trend line from the 09 lows that we were fighting over as well. We closed below that.
Most notably we closed below the most recent lows from the past week or so on all major indexes.
Oh, yea, metals are acting like a haven again today. Which is weird they just decided to do that. Not sure if that's tied to inflation or if bonds got too expensive overnight.
5m showing the day play out. I've circled what i mean by bear traps/liquidity hunts. If you day trade and that was your signal you got burned. Also, note today's close
We still need to break the lows from 06/15, and also we have a mess of things down below to crash into to get to the gap at $296, but again i think the daily is looking at $286 like a snack
But what does SPX look like? Double bottom? Who's to tell. Like i said i think we're going to need to gap over $3000 to make it official
Another daily break out of the triangle, close below the 200 period MA
ES giving up that trendline after a decent squabble over it and a peek down below $3000 just to say hi
ES daily showing it still intact though, and not breaking most recent lows either, but check volume, higher on the daily than SPY
IWM 5 min showing actually more strength than SPX but also printing something pretty ominous
Daily taking out the lows of the past week
Inside day for VIX. Still below it's .382 fib and 100 period MA but it does look like it's coiling up (that could be for a move either way)
NDX now below it's 13 period EMA which is a start, also taking out the lows from earlier in the week. A 2.5% down day for NDX is pretty significant
DJI taking out lows from last week. Target is gap at 24465 and the top of range. Has the 50 and 100 period MA to contend with though
Oof. Gap fill at $21.92 (XLF)
DJT still riding that 100 period MA. But gap fill at $8470. Also has the 50 period MA to deal with
Whereever this breaks it's going to be a pretty large move once it figures it out
Gold with another retest and hold of the top of that flag and also a kiss of the 13 period EMA before reversing nicely
This is most telling to me for a continued move downward. I'd like to see another strong close Monday
I made some decent trades today at open selling some premium on IWM and SPY and day traded some weeklies but i also closed my short calls and puts i had on as hedges (think diagonals) because i think we're finally going to be leaving this trading range. I'm now -14 delta. I am completely expecting to feel some pain early in the week next week as bulls try and lay out some punji traps and landmines trying to take out as many shorts as possible but i do (This is not trading advice).
We still have two trading days till the end of the quarter. But the selling today was pretty overwhelming for the buyers, and that's telling. Today there looked like concerted efforts to try and support the market or gain positions around the $300 or $3000 area. We'll see who comes out on top Monday.
Hope you all had a good trading day today and as always, keep your head on a swivel and watch for shenanigans Monday and Tuesday to pad that monthly candle.
Have a good weekend!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
Comment:
Bullish divergences on the 30 min for ES. You can track it all the way up to the 2h. Not sure how high it'll bounce but we were oversold. All going to determine on how Asia and the EU are feeling this Monday. Remember, we held $300/$3000. That could be a green light for the bulls to try and bounce us.
Comment:
Another thing i wanted to point out is this: DXY. Not looking too hot. Remember the dollar sold off pretty deep on our last uptrend. Now, the dollar and stocks aren't inversely correlated 100% of the time. But when there's equity weakness the dollar generally shows strength. But, right now the dollar is printing a pretty noticeable bearflag. Keep your eye on it.
Comment:
Also, kind of random but doing my weekly recon and came across this. /NQ (NDX/QQQ) weekly. Look at how ugly of a close that was last week.
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AMZN
Comment:
AAPl
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Ok super interesting morning so far. RTY (IWM) up about 1% and leading, next is YM (DJI) up about .75%. NQ is flat... Apparently investors are magically bullish on the economy again.
Apparently ES REALLY wants to be in that 11 year bull market.
Apparently ES REALLY wants to be in that 11 year bull market.
Comment:
Super funky day today but the bulls have control. If we get an hourly close above $302 i'd expect a shot at resistance at $305.87.
Comment:
Cute little short squeeze there this morning. IWM is crushing it. Banks are not.
Bullflag or roll over?
Bullflag or roll over?
Comment:
If this does turn into a proper short squeeze i'd expect them to go after the ones who shorted the last one around $307.43.
Comment:
IWM going for the gap fill already. Can't really rationalize this so far today.
Comment:
We just had a whopping 195k shares traded that last 5 min candle. 100 period Ma is 950k..
Comment:
WEBSITE UPDATE: I have the pre registration open! The landing page is live as of this weekend. If you so wish, you are more than welcome to pre register on the website for half off the first month. I will be charging $20/month for the newsletter and either $5 each, or a flat fee for all of the write ups. If you pre register you'll have access for $10 for the first month, and half off how ever many write ups i have done by the time we launch.
I currently have a write up for into to options, a Charting I, Market Nuances. These include things like delta hedging. The character of the market. How to identify support/resistance zones and targets, etc.
By signing up you will not be committed to anything besides an email when we go live with actual content. I'm about 85% done with the ones mentioned above and as soon as we get the website launched and i have time i will add to them.
We're currently doing all of the tedious stuff like formatting and working out some kinks in the blog widget we're going to be using for the daily posts i.e how to post the charts on it seamlessly, how to make sure they're aesthetic and not unwieldy, and to make sure it runs smoothly when we do launch. I want to be able to do live updates throughout the day and also have a comments section or chat section where we can talk about the day, what's happening, and what went on like we do here.
Again i still will be posting on TV after i go live, but the posts will be much more limited, and the posts on the websites much more indepth.
So check it out if you so please. All you're signing up for is to be notified when we launch and 50% off discount when we finally do go live.
I currently have a write up for into to options, a Charting I, Market Nuances. These include things like delta hedging. The character of the market. How to identify support/resistance zones and targets, etc.
By signing up you will not be committed to anything besides an email when we go live with actual content. I'm about 85% done with the ones mentioned above and as soon as we get the website launched and i have time i will add to them.
We're currently doing all of the tedious stuff like formatting and working out some kinks in the blog widget we're going to be using for the daily posts i.e how to post the charts on it seamlessly, how to make sure they're aesthetic and not unwieldy, and to make sure it runs smoothly when we do launch. I want to be able to do live updates throughout the day and also have a comments section or chat section where we can talk about the day, what's happening, and what went on like we do here.
Again i still will be posting on TV after i go live, but the posts will be much more limited, and the posts on the websites much more indepth.
So check it out if you so please. All you're signing up for is to be notified when we launch and 50% off discount when we finally do go live.
