Lamest gap fill ever, along with some Tug of War
Alright. You're going to to have excuse my brevity and tardiness as i get this entire thing typed up, and was about to post but for some reason it exited out of itself.......... Which is incredibly annoying because these take me about 45 mins to an hour to complete, and this one was really good.
So here we go again.
Today when i woke up we were about 5-10 points lower. By the time i got out of the shower and headed down to get coffee we were about 20-30 points down. By the time the ADP numbers were about to be released we were only down about 15 points. By the time we opened we were back positive again. Buying the dip is back to being trendy again. This was due to "vaccine news" and "good jobs data" which in my opinion is bullshit because Pfizer still hasn't even had their results peer reviewed, and private payroll numbers missed. But alas. What this looked liked to me was dip buying.
It looks like majority of the action happened in the premarket and first hour as volume died off shortly thereafter. Who knows. Maybe the dudes on the street went to go have some outsides drinks or go watch NFLX (speaking of NFLX, take a look at it). But what's for sure is people were out shopping today.
There was a 50 point move from bottom to top including the premarket today and over all we're overwhelmingly bullish. This face ripping rally from this last test of $300 has had people who were short on their heels and anyone who bought options down there watching Vega ruin their options prices if they bought puts or were trying to go delta neutral from the VIX taking a leg down today.
As i said above we are overwhelmingly bullish. This move from support is intense to say the least. My net delta (after i sold some of my positions at Monday open) went from net negative to net positive just from the move we've had and my gamma expsoure. That is intense. This is a complete 180 from market sentiment just a week ago. And just like that the virus is priced in, bad econ data is priced in, and the market is all sunshine and rainbows. Right? Right?
Something, Something Whoooooooooooooooooosh
That might be the case and i had a huge paragraph dedicated to how rationale and logic doesn't matter at this point because the fed is fostering this type of behavior. Logic doesn't matter. It doesn't have to make sense. The fed is there to backstop equities. Full stop.
But with that being said we still have this supply zone at $3140-$3150 to break. Until then it's just a counter trend rally. We have to break through that and fill the gaps at $319. Once we do that the only thing left to do is fill the last gap from the blow off top from Feb and the sky's the limit. We have to get above this little micro island reversal for us to continue onwards.
Today we did break my trendline of the descending triangle. But on terrible volume. We broke it originally, and got faded with a bearish engulfing hourly only to algo pump ourselves back outside of it. And on top of that they had every chance available to take the gap at $312 and they didn't. But now we've printed this weird rising wedge with bearish RSI divergences. Again, we need to take the gap at $312, and break this supply zone at $315 to continue onwards.
On top of that today we had a some weird price action. NDX was trading upwards, while IWM, XLF, and DJI were trading downwards putting SPX in the middle between the two.
On the intraday TF's we've ended up printing a broadening top in this zone. Price action was anemic after the first hour with algos taking over and crawling like a slug to try and fill the gap. Oh yea, lamest gap fill attempt ever.
Zoomed out to show the rising wedge. Nearing the apex
Hourly showing the supply zone and rising wedge.
Daily showing a .10 close above the 20 period MA. This chart is now 100% bullish, above all of the MA's
Oh yea, the supply zones. Note that that's where we had the triple top and that's what sent us back down to $3000. The rejection from there. Again, we need to break through in order to continue bullish. Also note SPX printed a more bearish hourly close this last hour
ES showing a trend line break, retest, and then getting cozy with $3100
Supply zone inc
IWM showing weakness the entire day with a trade back down to support, and a beautiful trade away from it all the way to the .5 fib, and back down to support. Ending with an anemic trade away from it
Hourly looks ugly
Daily with a bounce of the .236 fib
Oof, now would be the time to starting buying long calls and puts as they're getting more affordable
Cute little headfake on XLF today
Daily looking ugly
DJI struggling to retake it's trendline with a gap back up above it today and an immediate rejection and multiple retests
It's imperative it retakes this trendline
NDX: "What 13m people unemployed? People dying? Holy shit there's a virus?!?!"
Up Up and Away
Silver having $18.67 come back and haunt it, per usual
Gold hit $2 above my target and traded away from it. Definitely in a breakout, but definitely just printed a bearish engulfing
Bonds with the oof, giving up 139. Ugly chart, bullish for stocks
Everything rests on the non farm payroll report tomorrow. Remember, tomorrow is the last day of trading and it's packed full of econ data as well. The tone will hopefully be solidied by tomorrow's open.
Again i apologize for the brevity and not as indepth post. Be on your toes tomorrow. Remember, break above supply zone, bullish. Rejection, bearish.
Thanks everyone!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
So here we go again.
Today when i woke up we were about 5-10 points lower. By the time i got out of the shower and headed down to get coffee we were about 20-30 points down. By the time the ADP numbers were about to be released we were only down about 15 points. By the time we opened we were back positive again. Buying the dip is back to being trendy again. This was due to "vaccine news" and "good jobs data" which in my opinion is bullshit because Pfizer still hasn't even had their results peer reviewed, and private payroll numbers missed. But alas. What this looked liked to me was dip buying.
It looks like majority of the action happened in the premarket and first hour as volume died off shortly thereafter. Who knows. Maybe the dudes on the street went to go have some outsides drinks or go watch NFLX (speaking of NFLX, take a look at it). But what's for sure is people were out shopping today.
There was a 50 point move from bottom to top including the premarket today and over all we're overwhelmingly bullish. This face ripping rally from this last test of $300 has had people who were short on their heels and anyone who bought options down there watching Vega ruin their options prices if they bought puts or were trying to go delta neutral from the VIX taking a leg down today.
As i said above we are overwhelmingly bullish. This move from support is intense to say the least. My net delta (after i sold some of my positions at Monday open) went from net negative to net positive just from the move we've had and my gamma expsoure. That is intense. This is a complete 180 from market sentiment just a week ago. And just like that the virus is priced in, bad econ data is priced in, and the market is all sunshine and rainbows. Right? Right?
Something, Something Whoooooooooooooooooosh
That might be the case and i had a huge paragraph dedicated to how rationale and logic doesn't matter at this point because the fed is fostering this type of behavior. Logic doesn't matter. It doesn't have to make sense. The fed is there to backstop equities. Full stop.
But with that being said we still have this supply zone at $3140-$3150 to break. Until then it's just a counter trend rally. We have to break through that and fill the gaps at $319. Once we do that the only thing left to do is fill the last gap from the blow off top from Feb and the sky's the limit. We have to get above this little micro island reversal for us to continue onwards.
Today we did break my trendline of the descending triangle. But on terrible volume. We broke it originally, and got faded with a bearish engulfing hourly only to algo pump ourselves back outside of it. And on top of that they had every chance available to take the gap at $312 and they didn't. But now we've printed this weird rising wedge with bearish RSI divergences. Again, we need to take the gap at $312, and break this supply zone at $315 to continue onwards.
On top of that today we had a some weird price action. NDX was trading upwards, while IWM, XLF, and DJI were trading downwards putting SPX in the middle between the two.
On the intraday TF's we've ended up printing a broadening top in this zone. Price action was anemic after the first hour with algos taking over and crawling like a slug to try and fill the gap. Oh yea, lamest gap fill attempt ever.
Zoomed out to show the rising wedge. Nearing the apex
Hourly showing the supply zone and rising wedge.
Daily showing a .10 close above the 20 period MA. This chart is now 100% bullish, above all of the MA's
Oh yea, the supply zones. Note that that's where we had the triple top and that's what sent us back down to $3000. The rejection from there. Again, we need to break through in order to continue bullish. Also note SPX printed a more bearish hourly close this last hour
ES showing a trend line break, retest, and then getting cozy with $3100
Supply zone inc
IWM showing weakness the entire day with a trade back down to support, and a beautiful trade away from it all the way to the .5 fib, and back down to support. Ending with an anemic trade away from it
Hourly looks ugly
Daily with a bounce of the .236 fib
Oof, now would be the time to starting buying long calls and puts as they're getting more affordable
Cute little headfake on XLF today
Daily looking ugly
DJI struggling to retake it's trendline with a gap back up above it today and an immediate rejection and multiple retests
It's imperative it retakes this trendline
NDX: "What 13m people unemployed? People dying? Holy shit there's a virus?!?!"
Up Up and Away
Silver having $18.67 come back and haunt it, per usual
Gold hit $2 above my target and traded away from it. Definitely in a breakout, but definitely just printed a bearish engulfing
Bonds with the oof, giving up 139. Ugly chart, bullish for stocks
Everything rests on the non farm payroll report tomorrow. Remember, tomorrow is the last day of trading and it's packed full of econ data as well. The tone will hopefully be solidied by tomorrow's open.
Again i apologize for the brevity and not as indepth post. Be on your toes tomorrow. Remember, break above supply zone, bullish. Rejection, bearish.
Thanks everyone!
This is not trading advice. This is my own personal opinion based on my own personal TA. You are responsible for your own trades.
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Oh yea i forgot. Y tho?
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They were frontrunning the jobs data afterall. But the bulls got some cold water thrown on their better than expected jobs data with worse than expected weekly jobs data, All eyes on $314/$315
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Fifth time's the charm? Pretty convincing break from the triangle at this point
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I have $315.14 as the last resistance before we start for the gap at $19..
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-31 delta on the day..
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If they break $314.23 they're going to try and take us to the gap. Not sure how cloe we'll get though.
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The book in ES right now is insane. Multiple blocks of 200-400 contracts being flashed on both sides.
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IWM catching a fade this morning as well. Almost filled the gap
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312.10. Fancy seeing you again. We'll see if they try and bounce us here.
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Finding support on the top trendline from the yearly megaphone.
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Where to?
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Multiple candles under 200k in volume last hour or so. Watch for shenanigans going into the close.
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If SPX makes a new high today that's more than notable.
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Weirdest bear flag ever
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Trendline broken. Not sure how significant that is considering the amount of sideways we've had. We're about to find out.
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They defended $312.10 earlier, we'll see if they can a second time.Trendline breaking on the hourly now as well.
