Double bottom divergence on RSI today. Looking at all the reversals from pullbacks before, this is an excellent time to open a LONG position in the SPY. Starting to see more of the same in my basket of stocks that looked pretty bearish the past few days. Loving that long term MACD trend line. Average volume spikes are not losing their intensity, but they're losing their duration. This tells me that the market is warming up to higher highs. I would like to have seen a 10% pullback here, but it doesn't look like we'll get it just yet. Volatility just hit its long term upper trendline as well, further reinforcing what we see above in the SPY.
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Bond yields zapped price action near close today. That faded rapidly in the post-market. Watch for bounce on Monday AM or Tuesday. If we're going to breakdown lower here, there needs to be some fundamentally bad news to drive it. I like what I'm seeing on all time frames at the moment, otherwise:
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That said, keep a close eye on VIX. If this was a bounce off the 50 MA on the 30m chart, I would have liked to have seen MACD/RSI in bottom phase recharged for climb higher. At this point, I expect a small bounce and quick fade out (double-top) Monday AM. This could give buyers a temporary opportunity to buy Thur/Fri lows before marching higher:
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Someone asked me what that big blue bowl is beneath todays price action. Ha! Probably should have mentioned that. That's where I expect price action to go if we break down below this weeks lows next week. Happy trading all!
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Watch for resistance @ $388. The green arrow depicts the ideal scenario. A strong bullish rally upward up and above the cloud. If we don't get that spring off the current low, expect a mile retrace following the red line followed by a steep sell off to lower lows, continuing the downtrend. Lots of external signals influencing the market right now. Couldn't help but notice that savings rates are above 30% again (from 15% back in Dec 2020 -- eeek!). If we hit resistance as depicted above, I'm immediately closing my long positions and going short w/target $376 minimum. Will post new chart at that time. Happy & safe trading all:
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Futures (currently) pointing to a gap up to $383 in the AM. Goodnight all!
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Really nice breakout volume. $390 is a realistic high for today. If we close at that level. Yowsers...
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Price action needs to stay above the point of control, if not, we'll be heading to 386-87, and then possibly down to 379. Looking at the basket to see what the index leaders tell me.
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Holding fast. Good job bulls.
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Assuming no major market sell-off at the close, we'll have a nice little dragonfly doji on the 3-day chart. That's rather optimistic coming out the series of red candles we've seen lately.
