SPY: Sentiment reset

In this chart I plotted the period following a sub 25% AAII bulls reading, followed by a sharp rise to 55% bulls at the peak in April 2021. We now reset back down to sub 25% this week, so we might be watching a 'coiled spring' situation in equities. This is not so easily seen in $SPY as the $AAPL performance as of late distorts how equities acted for the majority of people. I included the performance of my trading strategy in the period of rising sentiment, and during the last period with deteriorating sentiment. I expect to make outsized gains again as we get a period of steady trends once more. Note I actually caught the bottom in Nasdaq overall, but the gains from that outperformance round were retraced recently with a series of short term losses.

Best of luck, try to milk the good times ahead. Outsized gains away, potentially.


Ivan Labrie.
This fits nicely with quarterly and yearly T@M trends...
Weekly view, cleaned up the chart without the daily support levels.
Comment: Pretty sure the market bottomed.
Comment: Now it's a bottom. There's a very juicy trend setting up in financials once again, and value, as we get some reopening momentum thanks to the Merck pill news, paired with the evolution of Delta...The yield curve is sending a loud and clear message to buy these names. The sentiment reset makes for a great cue that we need to go hard and heavy into the next big market trend, which I think will be financials, energy, value, curve steepeners once again: the reopening trade.
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