Holy sh*t. That was aggressive. I mean i thought we might take the elevator down but that was more like skydiving.
Needless to say everything got whacked today. My target was hit and everything besides the daily is oversold. We may see a momentum overshoot to the downside tomorrow just by nature of how big of a move we saw today. But i am expecting a last ditch effort to rescue the markets. We completed the head of the possible H&S perfectly on the neckline for both SPX and NDX. DJI isn't lookin too hot. But with that being said i am expecting a bounce here if anything to retest the 50 period MA on the daily. I am seeing a bullish divergence on the hourly and like i said above everything is grossly oversold at the moment. It was like we had all of this negative energy that the market decided to price in in one day.
Either we mill around the $320 support for a few days, consolidate, flag, and eventually move lower or we do bounce from here creating the right shoulder. I do not see the news flow getting better around the Wuflu anytime soon. But, that also wouldn't stop Jpow and friends from going all in and signaling rate cuts, or full blown QE, so keep that in mind. My technical thesis for a larger move downward rests on the litany of gaps we have down below and the poor market structure that got us up here in the first place. If we do move lower my target would be around $309 filling the gap and retesting the former breakout area in that zone. If that breaks eventually i'm pretty sure we'll retest $300. That would complete a larger than 10% correction from the highs. Volume also spiked today obviously but i don't see that as a completion move. Just a place holder so to speak.
If we do break downwards from here i'd see us running out of downward energy around $313-$315 and then subsequently retracing back up into the $325 area.
Bullish Divergences on /ES and SPY hourly
IWM has already completed its' H&S and i'm now expecting a retest of the neckline. IWM has a tendency to operate on more of a technical level than SPY so if or when we break back down i'm expecting a run at the daily 200 period MA.
I may have been too early (per usual) but i am long for the bounce. I'm out of my short position for the time being but still have my metal longs. It was either i rolled my puts or closed the position, but with IV as high as it was today it didn't feel like the right move paying the premium. A retracement of .5 would take us back to $330.
There was a marked change in market behavior today. There were literally no buyers to be found. That coupled with the fact we were just drilling tells me that investors and traders are buying puts expecting a larger move down. But "they" have a tendency to trap a lot of traders who tried to chase the move. We'll see how everything plays out. Goodluck and Godspeed.
Let me know how you guys are playing this. Straddles today for TWO WEEKS out were $13, IV is insane.
Needless to say everything got whacked today. My target was hit and everything besides the daily is oversold. We may see a momentum overshoot to the downside tomorrow just by nature of how big of a move we saw today. But i am expecting a last ditch effort to rescue the markets. We completed the head of the possible H&S perfectly on the neckline for both SPX and NDX. DJI isn't lookin too hot. But with that being said i am expecting a bounce here if anything to retest the 50 period MA on the daily. I am seeing a bullish divergence on the hourly and like i said above everything is grossly oversold at the moment. It was like we had all of this negative energy that the market decided to price in in one day.
Either we mill around the $320 support for a few days, consolidate, flag, and eventually move lower or we do bounce from here creating the right shoulder. I do not see the news flow getting better around the Wuflu anytime soon. But, that also wouldn't stop Jpow and friends from going all in and signaling rate cuts, or full blown QE, so keep that in mind. My technical thesis for a larger move downward rests on the litany of gaps we have down below and the poor market structure that got us up here in the first place. If we do move lower my target would be around $309 filling the gap and retesting the former breakout area in that zone. If that breaks eventually i'm pretty sure we'll retest $300. That would complete a larger than 10% correction from the highs. Volume also spiked today obviously but i don't see that as a completion move. Just a place holder so to speak.
If we do break downwards from here i'd see us running out of downward energy around $313-$315 and then subsequently retracing back up into the $325 area.
Bullish Divergences on /ES and SPY hourly
IWM has already completed its' H&S and i'm now expecting a retest of the neckline. IWM has a tendency to operate on more of a technical level than SPY so if or when we break back down i'm expecting a run at the daily 200 period MA.
I may have been too early (per usual) but i am long for the bounce. I'm out of my short position for the time being but still have my metal longs. It was either i rolled my puts or closed the position, but with IV as high as it was today it didn't feel like the right move paying the premium. A retracement of .5 would take us back to $330.
There was a marked change in market behavior today. There were literally no buyers to be found. That coupled with the fact we were just drilling tells me that investors and traders are buying puts expecting a larger move down. But "they" have a tendency to trap a lot of traders who tried to chase the move. We'll see how everything plays out. Goodluck and Godspeed.
Let me know how you guys are playing this. Straddles today for TWO WEEKS out were $13, IV is insane.
