I'm going to try and keep this one short. There is still an acute divergence on the , and for all TF's from the 2hour to the daily, weekly, and monthly. Pair that with an , or depending on where you draw it from technically we should see this break down out of the triangle. A measured target would send us down 3% back into the support of $324, but would also complete the head portion of a possible printing on all TF's. has diverged from , Cash in Cash out has been on a perfect downtrend, and we're still at new ATH's even today. They fought to keep price above the gap and inside the . has been light but the path of least resistance has been upwards with a lack of sellers, as the traders have been habitually burning anyone going home short overnight. These divergences are prevalent in all the major indices and now the Nasdaq has started participating in weakness with the DJI showing the worst of the bunch. The markets have been quiet, but when selling picks up does. There's been a notable change in price action and it shows cautiousness with the "they" trying to keep prices buoyant so headlines will keep printing "New ATH's". -1% days are bad for business.
I'm looking for a of both the hourly and also the hourly . As this would confirm at least intraday weakness. I'd be looking for this to crash back into support around $324.50 but would expect to get frontrun around $325-$326. The problem is that over the past 4-5 months none of these have really played out, or played out completely. They've been completely washed out by the amount of liquidity being plowed into the market and it's creating false signals and it breaks to the upside.
But at this point i have seen almost a loss of confidence and also a willful ignorance of what's transpiring in China affecting global supply chains (I think). Just from the people i know who work in supply chain management the news has been anything but optimistic. With AT LEAST 2-4 weeks worth of interruption which is, when you think about it, hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars of trade/production lost. And that's not even concerning all the multinationals who have had to close stores/businesses, creating a loss of revenue in China's massive consumer market. Pair that with what i'm seeing as artificial downward pressure on safe havens including gold , silver , and the Yen. The bond market is still signaling danger with T-bills hovering near their intermediate/short term highs. Also the VIX is still above $15, which is weird (to say the least) as we're hitting new highs. The manipulation is never more obvious than when people are starting to get scared.
With what i'm seeing as buyers exhaustion i am still short. VIX is still unbuyable in either direction in my opinion (not trading advice) but if the lid is taken off metals gold could easily top $1600 and silver most likely to $18.50.
As we've seen before this could all just be worthless conjecture and the band plays on, and we truly are operating in a bubble where all news is good news and like i've said, corrections and pullbacks are illegal. But this is just my analysis of what's currently playing out in the markets today.
IWM got smoked dead in its' tracks as it went for the daily breakdown candle high @ $168, but was also up substantially higher percentage wise compared to the majors.
As always, this is not trading advice, this is for entertainment purposes only based on my own personal TA.