NaughtyPines

TRADE IDEA: TBT FEB/JUNE 31/37 UPWARD CALL DIAGONAL

Long
AMEX:TBT   PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTSH 20YRS NEW
METRICS:

Max Loss on Setup: $422
Max Profit on Setup: $178
Break Even Versus Spot: 35.22 versus 35.37
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 70.3%
Delta: 50.2
Theta: .6

Notes: Tomorrow's the last day on which 2018 tax losses can be realized, so I can foresee some additional, last minute dumpage, followed by the Big Dicks buying the dip on Wednesday to position long anew on this weakness. I would ordinarily position straight up short in TLT , but want the mark left to be as small as possible in the event I'm dead ass wrong, and we continue in risk off mode (which will send TLT higher/ TBT lower). I would note that the markets in the back month show somewhat wide at the moment, so the setup may require some fiddling at NY open either with the strikes or the fill price ... .
Trade active: Filled, but for 4.57.
Comment: Rolling the Feb 37 out to the March 37 for a realized gain and a .25/contract credit. Scratch at 4.32. Looking slightly but not quite "dead ass" wrong so far ... . Lol.
Trade active: Late Post: "Fixing" a flub (that being that I wanted to roll down intraexpiry versus rolling down and out). Rolled the March 37 back to the Feb 35 strike for a .21/contract credit. Scratch at 4.11.
Trade active: Now that I kind of (a) did not get a fill with a BE price below spot; and (b) flubbed a roll, I'm rolling the 35 out to March as is for a .32 credit to collect max extrinsic ATM and looking to get out at or near max (4.00) with a scratch at 3.79. I may be able to bring in some more credit on "as is" rolls; we'll just have to see how much that pays when we approach the front month expiry ... . #DontTradeUsingYourPhoneApp Lol.
Trade closed manually: Covering here for a 3.46/contract credit; .33 ($33)/contract profit; 7.8% ROC. Will look to re-up in the more liquid TLT ... .

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