TNX: 10 Year Treasury Note: Longer Term Outlook

10 Year T Note TNX

'Nothing trends like long term rates' is perhaps one of the oldest stock market adages there is, along with 'buy the rumor, sell the event'...

Things don't change much because people don't change much at the core, beneath the veneer.
Fear and greed affect us just the same way that they affected our fathers and grandfathers, pretty much. The patterns we make are pretty similar too. Just the time factor changes - making fractal patterns that we see repeating in almost all markets at different points in time.
The 10 year T Note is proably the daddy of all charts, beating even Google for power and ultimate dominance.
No trend is as powerful and long lasting as this one.
8 or 9 major waves down over 31 years took the 10Y from a high at 158 to a low at 13.95.
It then doubled in price and more to 30.75 before falling away again to make a good double bottom/loss of downside momentum 4 years later (mid 2016 low).
Since the double bottom it's rallied back to the same levels at 30.75 as it touched the upper parallel at the same point in time.

This is a key level as the chart shows.
The trend is turning back up. The President, no matter how much he dislikes the trend here, cannot stop it.

Eventually it's going to break the upper parellel and start its ascent to 39.15 initially and then 52.4.
The trend is unlikely to stop there for long though.
The next significant resistance lies at 69.20, and then 101.54 above here.

It may not look like it right now, just as talking of a 14 low when it was trading at 158 back in 1981 seemed crazy then - but given enough time this will eventually trade back at 101 once it breaks the upper parallel.

Once wage inflation starts to become the norm: people expect another wage increase the next year.
For 10 years and more this has never figured - commodity inflation post 2009 was easily absorbed. Wage inflation is not so easily absorbed.
It leads eventually to over-inflated wage expectations and starts to run out of control over time.
Last time around it led to interest rates at 16%.
Only time will tell how much or little we have learned and since forgotton.

TNX 10 Year Note
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