XBTFX

Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, February 06 – 12

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Crypto Total Market Cap, $
Last week in the news

Central bankers made a previous week quite a busy one on the financial markets. Both FED and ECB raised interest rates fulfilling market expectations. Equities were traded in a mixed mode after the posted job figures in the US, while the crypto market was holding strongly. Bitcoin is finishing the week above $23K, Ether is still holding above $1.6K.

As it has been expected, FED increased the reference interest rate by additional 25 bps aimed to cope with increasing inflation. Such a decision was expected by markets and increased anticipation of potential further slowdown in monetary tightening. In a statement after the meeting, FED Chair Powell noted the recent drop in inflation as a positive sign; however, the FED will need more evidence that the inflation took the actual decreasing course. On several occasions, he also noted that the FED will have new forecasts in March, which will provide more information over the expected future course of macroeconomic developments. However, equity markets were closed in red on Friday, after the posted jobs report for the US. Namely, markets were shaken by the unexpectedly better than anticipated jobs figures, where nonfarm payrolls in January were increased by 517K much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was down to 3,4%, from 3,6% posted previously, which is its lowest level for the last 50 years. Such strong figures increased investors expectations that FED`s further rate increases might continue during the course of this year, at least to the level of 5%-5.25%, as per latest CME data.

During the week the European Central Bank also lifted its interest rate by additional 50 bps, with high potential for another 50 bps lift in March, as per Lagarde`s statement.
The India`s Enforcement Directorate entered the premises of the CEO of the crypto exchanger WazirX, Sammer Mhatre, after the exchange has been under investigation for support of money laundering activities of 16 companies in tech industry. Binance CEO, CZ, used this opportunity to call crypto investors to transfer their funds from WazirX to Binance. At the same time he tweeted that Binance does not own any shares in Zanmai Labs, however, a co-founder of WazirX, Nischal Shetty, noted in an interview with CoinDesk that “WazirX is the technology which we sold to Binance”.

Rostin Behnan, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noted in his speech during the previous week that the agency had increased the budget for this year which will be used for “growing our enforcement and surveillance teams” for the digital assets.

Crypto market cap

FED increased interest rates for another time by 25 bps during the previous week. Such a move was expected by the market, however, the strong jobs market put some doubts into investors' sentiment that future monetary tightening might soon come to an end. Namely, in January, the US added 517K of nonfarm payrolls, which was much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time the jobless rate fell down to a 50-years minimum of 3,4%. This put investors in a doubt that the FED will halt further rate increases during the course of this year. The crypto market reacted quite positively to the FED`s slower increase of interest rates and added $40B or 4% to its total market cap during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization still holds modestly above $1 trillion. On the other hand, daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of $82B on a daily basis, from $117B traded previously. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 38% since the beginning of this year, adding total $284B to the market cap.

The crypto market is finishing another week since the beginning of this year in green. Last week almost all coins gained in value. Leading coins on the market contributed the most in nominal figures to the increase of the total market cap. The winner of the week was Ether, with an increase in cap by more than 6%, adding almost $12B to its market cap. Bitcoin lagged behind ETH, with a surge in market cap by $7.7B, which is an increase of 1.7% on a weekly basis. Binance Coin also had a relatively good week, as it managed to increase its cap by $4B or more than 8% within a single week. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, with a surge in cap by almost 13%, adding $1.2B in its total value. In a relative terms DASH had good performance, with an increase of 21%, and is followed by Litecoin with a surge in cap by almost 14% and OMG Network, with an increase of 10% within a single week. One of the rare losers in value was Monero, who lost more than 4%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to gain strongly, adding 1.4% of coins, while Tether continues to modestly recover, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.8%.

Crypto futures market

The crypto futures market continues to move in a positive direction. In line with the spot market, both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. On a positive side is also that the longer maturities gained in price more than the shorter ones. In this sense, both BTC December 2023 and December 2024 maturities gained more than 3% both, while ETH futures for the same period gained around 5%. Short term futures were traded higher by 1% for BTC and more than 3% for ETH.

BTC futures ending this year finished the week at level of $24.145, while ETH futures for the same period were traded at level $1.709.


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