Technical analysis of major crypto currencies: Jan 30 – Feb 5
Last week in the news
It was a relatively calm week on financial markets in the wake of the coming FOMC meeting on the first day of February. In this sense, some higher volatility might be back on the market, especially if FED hikes rates by 25bps, as the market is expecting. Positive sentiment for equity markets across US and EU were published GDP data for the US, whose economy expanded in Q4 by 2,9%, better than forecasted 2,6%. Still, recession fears remain high on the markets. Bitcoin is finishing the week by testing $23K resistance, while Ether is holding above $1.5K.
Equity markets across the US and EU were supported during the previous week by better than expected GDP data for the US. The US economy rose by 2,9% in Q4 2022 which was better from the market estimate of 2,6%. Still, some slow down in the output of the US economy is evident, considering that Q3 GDP post was 3,2%. Regardless of the better than expected results, the fear of a coming recession is still strong among investors on the market. As it takes time for the monetary measures to reflect in the real economy, the currently ongoing series of layoffs in the US and across the world, and the slowdown of China's output, might all result in a gradual decrease of economic output in the coming period. As of February 1st the FED will announce a decision over the further rate increases. The market is expecting a further 25 bps hike, a slowdown from previous higher increases, which would be a certain signal that the FED is heading toward the end of its monetary tightening. Certainly, the week ahead will be an important week for the financial markets and fundamentals.
Current lay-offs wave in the crypto industry continues. During the previous week a crypto-exchange company Luno, which is part of the Digital Currency Group, announced that it will cut 330 jobs, which is roughly one third of their current number of employees. As a reason for such a step the management of the company noticed a very hard previous year for the tech industry, as it has significantly impacted their growth and revenues.
As Coindesk is reporting the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, owned by famous investor, Antony Scaramucci, lost 39% of its value due to the crypto coins downturn during the previous year, as well as investments into collapsed FTX exchanger. Due to this huge loss in value, the investors are seeking a redemption of about 60% of the fund's capital.
The non-fungible tokens are again expanding their presence in the news. It comes after the crypto winter, where investors and people from the industry are searching new ways in order to further expand the use of NFT`s. News attention came after the Aptos (APT) token surged by more than 300% since the beginning of the year. The management of the Aptos company is looking at the expansion of the use of NFT`s above the current use as a collectables and into the NFT`s as the exchangers of the value.
Crypto market cap
After a quite optimistic beginning of the year, the crypto market slowed down during the previous week. The current economic and crypto winter news were exhausted, and the market is currently waiting for new signals in order to choose the trading side. Latest posted figures on US GDP shows that the US economy is still able to sustain extreme monetary tightening from the FED, however, insecurity over the potential higher recession in the US and the rest of the world, especially China, is still shaping investors confidence. In the week ahead, FOMC will decide on further rate hike, in which sense, some volatility is coming on markets, after a relatively quiet week. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, still holding at $1 trillion. Although the main coins lost some of their value, altcoins saved the game during the week, adding counterbalance to the total crypto cap to remain flat. Daily trading volumes decreased compared to a week before, moving around $80B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $117B, or $153B three weeks ago. It is evidence that the market is drying up as the investors are waiting for a new market signal in order to choose a trading side. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap, and without change from a week before.
Altcoins saved the week for the crypto market. While major coins performed relatively flat, or with a small drop in value, the majority of altcoins dragged the capital back on the market, leading to total crypto market capitalization flat on a weekly basis. Bitcoin and Binance Coin remained relatively flat compared to the week before in terms to their market capitalization, while Ether passed a struggle, losing almost $10B in value, decreasing the market cap by less than 5%. Tether had a relatively good week, where the coin added $1B to the value of its market cap or 1.5%. Some of the highest weekly winners in relative terms were OMG Network, adding more than 11% to its cap, Polygon, with a surge of 8.5% or Algorand, with an increase of 6.5%. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 1.5% of coins during the previous week, and increasing its market cap by 9.5% within a single week.
Crypto futures market
Developments from the spot market were reflected in the prices of both BTC and ETH futures during the previous week. However, it should be mentioned another important development, which is related to slope reversion of the futures curve. Namely, after some time we have finally faced the situation that prices for longer term futures are higher from the short term ones. This might be perceived as an important break-through on the market, as indicates that investors are finally perceiving the end of the crypto winter as well as, improvement in the macroeconomic environment which would again lead to increase in value of assets, including crypto.
BTC short term futures finished the previous week higher by some 4% on average. At the same time longer term futures were up more than 11%, with December 2023 ending the week at the price of $23.390. Prices for December 2024 were higher by more than 13% on a weekly basis, ending the week at level of $23.565.
In line with the spot market, ETH`s short term futures were down by some 2%. At the same time, longer term futures were traded higher by 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at $1.623. Futures maturing in December 2024 were 9.5% higher from the week before, ending the week at level of $1.639.
It was a relatively calm week on financial markets in the wake of the coming FOMC meeting on the first day of February. In this sense, some higher volatility might be back on the market, especially if FED hikes rates by 25bps, as the market is expecting. Positive sentiment for equity markets across US and EU were published GDP data for the US, whose economy expanded in Q4 by 2,9%, better than forecasted 2,6%. Still, recession fears remain high on the markets. Bitcoin is finishing the week by testing $23K resistance, while Ether is holding above $1.5K.
Equity markets across the US and EU were supported during the previous week by better than expected GDP data for the US. The US economy rose by 2,9% in Q4 2022 which was better from the market estimate of 2,6%. Still, some slow down in the output of the US economy is evident, considering that Q3 GDP post was 3,2%. Regardless of the better than expected results, the fear of a coming recession is still strong among investors on the market. As it takes time for the monetary measures to reflect in the real economy, the currently ongoing series of layoffs in the US and across the world, and the slowdown of China's output, might all result in a gradual decrease of economic output in the coming period. As of February 1st the FED will announce a decision over the further rate increases. The market is expecting a further 25 bps hike, a slowdown from previous higher increases, which would be a certain signal that the FED is heading toward the end of its monetary tightening. Certainly, the week ahead will be an important week for the financial markets and fundamentals.
Current lay-offs wave in the crypto industry continues. During the previous week a crypto-exchange company Luno, which is part of the Digital Currency Group, announced that it will cut 330 jobs, which is roughly one third of their current number of employees. As a reason for such a step the management of the company noticed a very hard previous year for the tech industry, as it has significantly impacted their growth and revenues.
As Coindesk is reporting the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, owned by famous investor, Antony Scaramucci, lost 39% of its value due to the crypto coins downturn during the previous year, as well as investments into collapsed FTX exchanger. Due to this huge loss in value, the investors are seeking a redemption of about 60% of the fund's capital.
The non-fungible tokens are again expanding their presence in the news. It comes after the crypto winter, where investors and people from the industry are searching new ways in order to further expand the use of NFT`s. News attention came after the Aptos (APT) token surged by more than 300% since the beginning of the year. The management of the Aptos company is looking at the expansion of the use of NFT`s above the current use as a collectables and into the NFT`s as the exchangers of the value.
Crypto market cap
After a quite optimistic beginning of the year, the crypto market slowed down during the previous week. The current economic and crypto winter news were exhausted, and the market is currently waiting for new signals in order to choose the trading side. Latest posted figures on US GDP shows that the US economy is still able to sustain extreme monetary tightening from the FED, however, insecurity over the potential higher recession in the US and the rest of the world, especially China, is still shaping investors confidence. In the week ahead, FOMC will decide on further rate hike, in which sense, some volatility is coming on markets, after a relatively quiet week. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, still holding at $1 trillion. Although the main coins lost some of their value, altcoins saved the game during the week, adding counterbalance to the total crypto cap to remain flat. Daily trading volumes decreased compared to a week before, moving around $80B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $117B, or $153B three weeks ago. It is evidence that the market is drying up as the investors are waiting for a new market signal in order to choose a trading side. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap, and without change from a week before.
Altcoins saved the week for the crypto market. While major coins performed relatively flat, or with a small drop in value, the majority of altcoins dragged the capital back on the market, leading to total crypto market capitalization flat on a weekly basis. Bitcoin and Binance Coin remained relatively flat compared to the week before in terms to their market capitalization, while Ether passed a struggle, losing almost $10B in value, decreasing the market cap by less than 5%. Tether had a relatively good week, where the coin added $1B to the value of its market cap or 1.5%. Some of the highest weekly winners in relative terms were OMG Network, adding more than 11% to its cap, Polygon, with a surge of 8.5% or Algorand, with an increase of 6.5%. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 1.5% of coins during the previous week, and increasing its market cap by 9.5% within a single week.
Crypto futures market
Developments from the spot market were reflected in the prices of both BTC and ETH futures during the previous week. However, it should be mentioned another important development, which is related to slope reversion of the futures curve. Namely, after some time we have finally faced the situation that prices for longer term futures are higher from the short term ones. This might be perceived as an important break-through on the market, as indicates that investors are finally perceiving the end of the crypto winter as well as, improvement in the macroeconomic environment which would again lead to increase in value of assets, including crypto.
BTC short term futures finished the previous week higher by some 4% on average. At the same time longer term futures were up more than 11%, with December 2023 ending the week at the price of $23.390. Prices for December 2024 were higher by more than 13% on a weekly basis, ending the week at level of $23.565.
In line with the spot market, ETH`s short term futures were down by some 2%. At the same time, longer term futures were traded higher by 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at $1.623. Futures maturing in December 2024 were 9.5% higher from the week before, ending the week at level of $1.639.
