XBTFX

CRYPTO week ahead: March 6 – 12

CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL   Crypto Total Market Cap, $
Last week in the news

Both EU and US equity markets were closed higher on Friday, after easing in the US Treasury yields. The market had priced available information regarding further tightening of monetary policy, however, the week ahead is bringing some important data which might bring back volatility. At the same time, the crypto market slowed down amid concerns regarding the Silvergate crypto-friendly bank during the previous week, with Bitcoin ending the week above $22K, and Ether holding above $1.550.
Inflation in the Euro zone continues to surge, data showed. During the previous week, published yearly inflation figures for February showed a further increase of 5,6% y/y, above market expectations of 5,3%. There is an increasing number of economists who are pointing that the planned 50 bps ECB`s increase in rates in March would not be enough, and that probably additional 100 bps should be needed in the coming period. At the same time, still strong US employment data impacted the strengthening of the USD, but most importantly, it made an additional impact on the US Treasury bond yield curve. Namely, the 2-year T-bonds reached a level of 4,86%, which was last seen in June 2007. This bond is mostly watched by the market due to its sensitivity to FED`s moves and certainly as a signal to markets that the FED will continue to hike rates in the coming period above current levels. On the other hand, there are analysts who are voicing that the FED is currently lagging behind the yield curve with rate increases, and that 25 bps would not be enough to cope with inflation.

Binance exchanger is once again in the news spotlight. This time is due to several senators in the US Congress requesting detailed information on the Binances`s business operations due to concerns over the company's illegal practices. Senators are especially pointing to Binance`s anti-money laundering and sanctions law practices and compliance with the US regulation in that respect. Binance USD coin issued on the Paxos fell below a $10 billion market capitalization, since Paxo`s announcement that it will halt minting new BUSD, as it has been requested by the New York Department of Financial Services. This comes after a concern from regulators that Paxos is offering unregistered securities.

Published statements of the Silvegate crypto bank showed that its business has been hurt by the crypto implosion as of the end of 2022., when the bank lost more than $8 billion in deposits. At the same time, the bank faced investigations from regulators but also potential restating of its financial statements after the ongoing audit was finalized. Special warning to the markets was an announcement from the Silvergate bank that it is closing its SEN platform, which has been used by bank`s clients to transfer their funds from bank to other exchangers.

Coinbase (COIN), a cryptocurrency exchanger, announced that the company had acquired One River Digital Asset Management. As a rationale for such a decision, the company is noting that it is looking to expand its business to investment advisory service to the institutional clients.


Crypto market cap

Questions regarding FED`s future monetary tightening is still the main topic on the market. Still, during the previous week the crypto market has been impacted by the news regarding Silvergate bank development and its potential further deterioration in business due to crypto implosion as of the end of the previous year, when the bank went into the spotlight of regulators after the collapse of the FTX exchanger. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased again below the level of $1 trillion, reaching $980B. This represents a decrease of 3% on a weekly level where the crypto market lost more than $34B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes continue to be decreasing, trading around $56B on a daily basis, which is a further decrease from $88B during the week before. For one more time the crypto market is slowing down, which is its usual course of action during the times of high uncertainty of market participants. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 30% since the beginning of this year, adding total $224B to the market cap.

Major coins on the market were the ones which led to last week`s drop. Bitcoin was a leader on a negative side, losing $14B on a weekly basis or more than 3%. Ether`s loss in market cap was relatively lower, holding at $4.5B or more than 2% compared to the previous week. BNB was hit by the negative news around Binance exchanger, where the coin`s cap was down by $2B or around 4%. Majority of altcoins were mostly down up to 10%, with few coins with higher loss in market cap, like Miota and Theta, which were both down by more than 16%, ZCash was down by 15%, or Filecoin with a decrease of 12%. On the opposite side, few altcoins managed to perform with a positive weekly result, like Maker, with a surge of 23%, EOS was up by 11%, while NEO managed to gain 6% compared to the previous week. As for coins in circulation, the winner of the week was Monero with a surge in coins in circulation of 5.5%, and was followed by LINK, which increased its coins by 1.8%.


Crypto futures market

During the previous week crypto futures were traded a bit lower from the spot market. This comes as a result of significant liquidations of long positions after negative news regarding the Silvergate bank. BTC short term futures were traded down by more than 4%, while longer terms were traded in a calmer way. Futures maturing as of the end of this year were closed at price $24,14K, almost flat compared to the week before, while maturities in December 2024 were down by 1%, ending the week at price $24,96K.
ETH short term futures ended the week about 3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year and in 2024 were relatively flat on a weekly basis, where December 2023 ended the week at price $1,67K, while December 2024 was traded at price $1.719.

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