Markets always change and strategies have to be adapted. Just like with games, the meta changes all the time. An all round good trader should be able to adapt and succeed in all metas, or almost all, as long as it doesn't get too stupid and too random.
Ignorant cognitive bias shoe shine boys have taken over. Just like in the 1920s. But worse.
I expect markets to keep going parabolic for a while, and in particular those trollish "investments" like Tesla and other scams surfing the "end of the world clomote shounje" wave.
Bushfire crisis definitely not caused by arsonists...
When earth was pangea and average temperature was higher by 20°K/C (36F) (so even mor eon pangea) earth was in a constant buring state right? How did all thois survive? The power of imagination?
We also can notice that alarmists, The Armageddonists as JPM calls them, get alot of attention. Nouriel Roubini got a Nobel Prize for "predicting 2008 crisis".
He is very bearish on the stock market since 2011 and on Bitcoin since 2011 too.
JPMorgan Chase 2 months ago published a nice article about The Armageddonists am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383648210719
Those retail very low level low skill investors are very emotional and at the same time ignore reality because "that's being emotional".
So we can expect all the obvious things to be important and to consider (sudden price movements that have nothing to do with true value, end of the world predictions being given alot of attention, rational thoughts being ignored, irrational markets, mini bubbles everywhere, etc, the usual that happens regularly since 1500).
I think TA will work more often also, since this is what retail learns, and makes buying decisions on some arbitrary made up indicators (or extensions) rather than on the value of a company.
The cycle is I'd say at around 90% by now.
First all the bears get killed, then one last parabolic move up with every one euphoric. Another 4 years of bull and another 4 years of Trump I'm guessing.
With the internet, comission free brokers, complete noobs "invest". They are gullible and fall for complete scams so this has to be taken into account now.
Not going to fight it for the next few years. I still have my dow jones target around 33k.
There are ways to profit from all this of course, this is for me to know and you to find out :D
They do everything opposite...
I will mostly continue to focus on Fx & hard commodities anyway. I like my clean & repetitive trades.
Stocks and indices will probably get alot of random (or maybe they are not random?) large spikes...
Got to give stupid news more weight now.
Gone are the good old days when you could ignore lunatics or just laugh at the kid that eats grass and vomite at school.
Now the more unimportant and ridiculous one is, the more markets will react to that person or group.
So we have to sit there and pretend we take seriously complete mongoloids that are convinced 2+2 is 5, a 25% efficient 50 times more dense energy source can be replaced by "just make electricity more efficient" (50 times 0.25?) or the earth is a sphere because "science" no matter the proof you show to them.
I really like the dead stock bounce strategy, Marc from the ukspreadbetting channel has posted some of his trade on youtube recently, he is making money from suckers (oh here I gave you a way to abuse this current situation), here is an example:
The secret is to be rigorous. The first part is you have to get in early after the new high is made, and if you missed out you stay away. Then price keeps going on as suckers notice it, read about it, or suckers that were afraid of buying start having regrets and finally surrender and buy. So you are front running the noobs.
The second part is once the price starts dropping you get out! Noobs will hold on by fear of missing out (and a few times they will "be right" and have survivor bias and think they wer"e geniusses lmao) but experienced skilled speculators just get out no question asked. It's so simple... yet most can't do it. If you manage to do this, naturally or via training, here is your lucrative strategy. Still it's grindy to go and scan all these stocks and look for the right ones read about them etc. Time actually has to be spent analysing this.
Apart from this DSB strat I don't really like much. I would just look for buys until the dow gets to around 33k and/or Trump presidency is over. Then maybe consider shorting the entire stock market especially if there is a catalyst at the same time.
Just going to stick to FX&Futures but they have their periods, and during certain times it gets so boring, and I spent so much time looking for new strats for those times but haven't found much, it might be interesting to look at stocks actually. Or just go on vacation.
Ignorant cognitive bias shoe shine boys have taken over. Just like in the 1920s. But worse.
I expect markets to keep going parabolic for a while, and in particular those trollish "investments" like Tesla and other scams surfing the "end of the world clomote shounje" wave.
Bushfire crisis definitely not caused by arsonists...
When earth was pangea and average temperature was higher by 20°K/C (36F) (so even mor eon pangea) earth was in a constant buring state right? How did all thois survive? The power of imagination?
We also can notice that alarmists, The Armageddonists as JPM calls them, get alot of attention. Nouriel Roubini got a Nobel Prize for "predicting 2008 crisis".
He is very bearish on the stock market since 2011 and on Bitcoin since 2011 too.
JPMorgan Chase 2 months ago published a nice article about The Armageddonists am.jpmorgan.com/gi/getdoc/1383648210719
Those retail very low level low skill investors are very emotional and at the same time ignore reality because "that's being emotional".
So we can expect all the obvious things to be important and to consider (sudden price movements that have nothing to do with true value, end of the world predictions being given alot of attention, rational thoughts being ignored, irrational markets, mini bubbles everywhere, etc, the usual that happens regularly since 1500).
I think TA will work more often also, since this is what retail learns, and makes buying decisions on some arbitrary made up indicators (or extensions) rather than on the value of a company.
The cycle is I'd say at around 90% by now.
First all the bears get killed, then one last parabolic move up with every one euphoric. Another 4 years of bull and another 4 years of Trump I'm guessing.
With the internet, comission free brokers, complete noobs "invest". They are gullible and fall for complete scams so this has to be taken into account now.
Not going to fight it for the next few years. I still have my dow jones target around 33k.
There are ways to profit from all this of course, this is for me to know and you to find out :D
They do everything opposite...
I will mostly continue to focus on Fx & hard commodities anyway. I like my clean & repetitive trades.
Stocks and indices will probably get alot of random (or maybe they are not random?) large spikes...
Got to give stupid news more weight now.
Gone are the good old days when you could ignore lunatics or just laugh at the kid that eats grass and vomite at school.
Now the more unimportant and ridiculous one is, the more markets will react to that person or group.
So we have to sit there and pretend we take seriously complete mongoloids that are convinced 2+2 is 5, a 25% efficient 50 times more dense energy source can be replaced by "just make electricity more efficient" (50 times 0.25?) or the earth is a sphere because "science" no matter the proof you show to them.
I really like the dead stock bounce strategy, Marc from the ukspreadbetting channel has posted some of his trade on youtube recently, he is making money from suckers (oh here I gave you a way to abuse this current situation), here is an example:
The second part is once the price starts dropping you get out! Noobs will hold on by fear of missing out (and a few times they will "be right" and have survivor bias and think they wer"e geniusses lmao) but experienced skilled speculators just get out no question asked. It's so simple... yet most can't do it. If you manage to do this, naturally or via training, here is your lucrative strategy. Still it's grindy to go and scan all these stocks and look for the right ones read about them etc. Time actually has to be spent analysing this.
Apart from this DSB strat I don't really like much. I would just look for buys until the dow gets to around 33k and/or Trump presidency is over. Then maybe consider shorting the entire stock market especially if there is a catalyst at the same time.
Just going to stick to FX&Futures but they have their periods, and during certain times it gets so boring, and I spent so much time looking for new strats for those times but haven't found much, it might be interesting to look at stocks actually. Or just go on vacation.