As the new year begins, the markets are a little quiet but in the oil , markets seem a little confusing, Based on OPEC-JMMC Meetings we made our view on the oil market.
"That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters"
While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period.
OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club.
I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 :
24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020
to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021
Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year.
The technical view
you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart,
also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area.
The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly
but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline
For the position
I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area
Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding
Targets
1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area
2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area
The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated )
This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months
The news and numbers source coming from
theoilsellers.com/
news.cn/
ycharts.com/
"That's one way of looking at it OPEC plus seems confident that despite omicron spreading rapidly around the world and with cases rising it's not going to have that much of an impact on oil demand the group is expecting the oil market to be in a supply surplus in the first and second quarters"
While the U.S airlines have canceled and delayed thousands of flights since 23 December 2021, The energy sector will depend on storage more than consumption in the coming period.
OPEC plus is probably not almost certainly not going to actually add 400 000 barrels a day to the market because of supply problems incertain members in the oil club.
I see OPEC crude oil production increasing since Jul 2020 :
24.82M bbl /d on Jul 2020
to be 28.87M bbl /d in Aug 2021
Making the oil production increase +16.31% in one year.
The technical view
you will see 83.00 -82.00 area as a supply area on the chart,
also, 86.50 - 85.00 area is a strong historical supply area.
The Market tend to sell from these areas, we may see some increase in the price shortly
but in the volume indicator the average volume is in decline
For the position
I recommend a sell order from 83.00 -81.50 area
Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 in case the market still growing before retrograding
Targets
1st target 77. 40 - 77.00 demand area
2nd target 68.40- 69.10 demand area
The period of the Positon is more than 1 month up to 5 months (estimated )
This is a swing trade so be patient we estimate +16% to +20% profit for 5 months
The news and numbers source coming from
theoilsellers.com/
news.cn/
ycharts.com/
Trade active:
Sell limit on 84.5- 86.5 order triggered
Trade active:
We opened a hedge position on Natural Gas for the current news
Trade closed: stop reached
