We are currently seeing an inversion of the US 10 Year Yield and the 2 Year Yield this is a recession signal but remember after this signal we get on average another 22 Months until a bigger correction and another 12% run to the upside in the Markets, this would match well with the EW Counts which also shows me one last Impuls to the upside. We can further see that the inversion level (red line, 0 line) has just been touched there is still plenty of room for the FED to manouver, typically a crash szenario playes out when we have been under the red line (inversion territory) for quite a while and when we start to get out of the inversion territory.
The problem I see is that you will see falling yields - and they will fall VERY quickly - 1.000 for the 10 year and 1.75 for the 30 year will happen very fast and trigger algo sell-offs in the general market and scare the general public. People can argue whether the inversion is "a true indicator" or not; however, the fact that it COULD be is all that matters as that in itself will psychologically lead to a contraction regardless.
In the end you will see yields fall to record lows (triggering an algo sell-off), go below 1.000 10yr and 1.5 30yr (triggering further algo sell-offs), then again below 1 (triggering algo sell-offs again), and finally approaching 0 or even negative (triggering even more sell-offs) and wrecking havoc on the banking system.
In the long-run I see treasuries rising and us entering a stagflationary recession with Gold/Silver absolutely surging to historic and parabolic highs. In the end, the USD (and currencies around the world) will be obliterated to try to save the stock market in the next 2 or so years.
I have been saying for the past 12 months that while 2010-2019 will be known as the decade of cheap money and astronomically soaring (and ridiculous) valuations, late 2019-2025+ will be known as the epic return of metallics.