- Top left = SPX
- Bottom left = Initial jobless claims (unemployment metric)
- Top right = US 10 year and US 2 year spread (Yield curve inversion metric)
- Bottom right = Fed funds rate (short-term interest rates)
It is no secret that US equities are grossly overvalued, from Warren Buffet to Stanley Druckenmiller to Ray Dalio, the smart money has made...
Dow Jones dropped over 1200 points in one day, that's the biggest downward move ever happen.
Interest rates are going down FED Watch Tool shows over 99% that FED will cut at least 25pts.
More cuts will come soon, please check www.cmegroup.com
I follow this website and 3-5 days ago there was only 10% for a...
Yes it is nothing new or original, but it bears repeating.
The inversion of the 2yr and 10yr US yields still remains the holy grail of predictive indicators, once these yields invert (the 2yr yields more than the 10yr) start your stop watch to recession.
DO NOT BE CAUGHT OUT
Protect your wealth that you choose to hold within the financial system, think about...
This is a Weekly Chart of the US10Y yield minus the US02Y yield. (This composite is sometimes referred to as the Yield Curve and if the spread or difference goes below 0.000, then that phenomena is termed to as Yield Curve Inversion).
This spread is widely followed worldwide as any number below or close to 0 tends to indicate impending slowdown in the US Economy,...
US10y: Series on Bonds- Sept 20th 2019(7-8 minute read)
For the past couple of month yield curves, particularly the 10 year vs the short term maturities have been a popular topic in the mainstream media, mostly because of the yield curve inversion. This analysis aims to provide a well detailed approach to some of the crucial factors regarding the US Treasuries...
I am short term bearish for the US Markets but I expect a last 5-Wave Impuls Move on the upside in the longer term (look at the SP500 Big Picture Analysis).
We are currently seeing an inversion of the US 10 Year Yield and the 2 Year Yield this is a recession signal but remember after this signal we get on average another 22 Months until a bigger correction and...
Green positive, red negative yield curve.
Blue is dow jones index.
Red vertical lines indicate where yield curve first turns negative.
As you can see, at least historically, market continues to do well for some time (years) after yield curve first turns negative.
This long term chart compares the SPX (orange), US10Y (white) and the Fed's National Activity Index (blue).
Note the extended periods of the NAI which remain below 0 marking recession.
The 10 year yield tends to peak well in advance of the next recession. On a daily basis we see ongoing concern about the 10y-3mo inverted yield curve as an indication of...
The very famous chart formation again happen in Dow Futures. The pattern target is eyeing 23842 with conservative projection from left shoulder instead of right shoulder.
However, if price hit 23842, it will be 50% retracement from the previous swing. In a longer term view, S&P 500 have divergence and yet to confirm. In Dow Jones, the head and shoulder pattern...
In this video update I make my case for one last blow-off top in the SPX500. I breakdown the chart using Elliott Wave and Fibonacci for technical as well as discuss the impact of the inverted yield curve on the equity space.
For BND...the 79.80 level is where the problems are. If it breaks up through the 79.80 level decisively the entire Yield Curve will have to invert until everything unwinds. A rejection would be tell tale of Central Bank intervention. They would be buying stocks and forcing everyone into stocks instead of Bonds.