For over a year i have been posting charts on why i think the stock market is going to crash over 80%. I've posted charts for a while talking about how the stock market will top out at 36k and well, so far it looks like im right. we have seen the stock market top out/consolidate around the 36k level.
i think this consolidation should be a warning to all. right now markets are looking extremely bearish and i will show you why.
before i do show you multiple examples on why i think the greatest financial/ economic collapse is right around the corner.
(here are the previous charts i have posted)
this is a chart showing similarity to the Great Depression
this is the second chart. here it shows the steps markets will make and during the crash. (here are the steps with explanation)
phases/key: phase 1: first sell of/ bear trap (this is kind of a trick that tricks investors)
phase 2: media attention/ greed (this is when the media starts talking about all time highs/ how markets are overvalued)
phase 3:delusion/ parabolic move (this is when people start thinking that markets will not crash and they also think this is the start of a new bull market)
phase 4: denial/ start of bull trap( this is when investors are delesonal and think that this is just a small sell off and they think it will continue to go up)
phase 5: return to normal/ end of bull trap (this is when investors think that markets are starting to recover from that "small" sell off)
phase 6: fear (this is when investors see that markets won't go up just yet so they start to pull out sending markets into a small free fall)
phase 7: capitulation/ retest (this is when markets continue to sell off sharply) (expect a 40% retest)
phase 8: despair/retest (this is when markets start to go into another sharp sell off plus 10%+ retests of strong future resistance)
phase 9: return to mean (this is when we will come back up to the mean level of the market)
phase 10: leg down (this is another sharp sell off/ leg down. this is when we will retest lows) (8k should be the low)
phase 11: recovery (this is when we start our recovery phase. markets will take 5 or 10 years to recover from this giant collapse)
on this chart i posted why i thought the stock market was going to crash/patterns. (here are the patterns i listed)
1. bearish divergence
2. market is overvalued
3. price is about to hit the 618 fib level ( 36k )
^^ these are some of the patterns we are still seeing today. we are seeing markets are overvalued + patterns like rising wedges/channels
this is the last chart i posted about the crash.
here i talked about divergence happening in the market and why i think it will crash.
now that i have listed that i will list my other reasons why i think markets will crash.
1. equities vs commodities
marketcap.com.au/wp-...2018/02/gundlach.gif
as you can see on this chart, we are reaching dangerous levels. last time we were at these levels we had 2 major crashes.
2. private debt
static.seekingalpha....saupload_Picerno.png
on this chart you can see the amount of private debt is at at(almost) an ATH. this is something you should keep an eye out since last time private debt was this high the 2008 financial crisis took place.
3. S&P vs real earning yield
twitter.com/Not_Jim_...251660734466/photo/1
this is a good one! as you can see on this chart we have seen that every time we go into negative territory a market crash occurs. right now it is the lowest it has ever been which should be something you need to look at.
4. US profit margin vs linear trend and deviation from linear trend in %
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*CYZq9N1rvoSEbErt
on this chart you can see that the % on this chart is again at a new ATH. this is not good since every time we get a huge spike in it we end up getting a recession (show on chart)
5. buffet indicator
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*hvYBpuw8MTg0N8xL
ATH on this chart too. (note: this is a more controversial indicator)
6. Shiller P.E ratio
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*MO95_Mv-ZtnoH2z_
on this chart you can see that we are reaching dangerous zones. last time we were up in this zone the .com bubble happened.
7. S&P mean regression
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*DEm1qUrv09H5dA7u
on this chart we are starting to form a new ATH. last time we were in this zone the .com bubble happened.
final:
now that i have shown multiple reasons why the market will crash i will give my final take:
over the past year and so (start of covid) we have seen a lot of people get into stocks/crypto (including gme , bitcoin , and other meme coins) this is usually bearish because we have seen dumb money come in during a lot of historic crashes including: the 2001 .com bubble and the 1987 great depression. i do think that this will be one of the leading causes of the crash behind inflation .
we have seen so much "dumb money" come into markets after covid and i think this will be one of the major reasons we will crash. it seems like everyone is making money without trying.
other reasons for crash:
-covid- covid is still raging in the world. i think we will keep seeing strains that are worse causing economic fear.
-debt- national and private debt is so high eventually the bubble will burst
-dumb money- dumb money has been a problem for over 2 years and i think we will see that crash markets too.
-inflation- inflation is now at 7.5% meaning we could see the inflation bubble pop.
-Russia invades- IMPORTANT- OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WE HAVE SEEN TENSIONS RISE OVER A POSSIBLE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA. TOMORROW BIDEN AND PUTIN WILL HOLD A PHONE CALL MEETING AT 11 AM ET. I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DECISION MADE AFTER THE PHONE CALL MEANING TENSIONS COULD STILL RISE. I PERSONALLY THINK RUSSIA WILL IN FACT INVADE UKRAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN IT WILL MAKE MARKETS START CRASHING FAST.
the final charts:
here are some charts showing why i think markets will crash:
this is the 10yr yield. as you can see it has been forming a rising channel (bearish pattern) meaning we could see it breaking down, bring markets down with it.
this is the US10Y-US02Y. this is the yield curve. every time it goes below 0 the yield curves. the yield curve is a strong indicator for market crashes since it has predicted all of the last crashes. right now it is dropping fast and i do think it will go negative soon.
this is the US inflation. right now inflation is sitting at 7.50% which is high but i think we will go much higher. we are forming a triangle pattern that i think will break to the upside. i do think inflation will keep on rising since the US keeps printing money. if this does play out we could see 14% inflation or higher.
this is the US money supply. as you can see we have printed over 40% of the total money supply in 2 years! this should be a huge warning on why a big market crash will happen.
this chart shows the volatility in markets. over the past few months we have not seen crazy volatility but its starting to pick up. i do think it will pick up in the upcoming months causing a market crash.
conclusion:
i am sorry that this is a bit long but i do think it is important you read it well since your life could depend on it.
i think this consolidation should be a warning to all. right now markets are looking extremely bearish and i will show you why.
before i do show you multiple examples on why i think the greatest financial/ economic collapse is right around the corner.
(here are the previous charts i have posted)
this is a chart showing similarity to the Great Depression
this is the second chart. here it shows the steps markets will make and during the crash. (here are the steps with explanation)
phases/key: phase 1: first sell of/ bear trap (this is kind of a trick that tricks investors)
phase 2: media attention/ greed (this is when the media starts talking about all time highs/ how markets are overvalued)
phase 3:delusion/ parabolic move (this is when people start thinking that markets will not crash and they also think this is the start of a new bull market)
phase 4: denial/ start of bull trap( this is when investors are delesonal and think that this is just a small sell off and they think it will continue to go up)
phase 5: return to normal/ end of bull trap (this is when investors think that markets are starting to recover from that "small" sell off)
phase 6: fear (this is when investors see that markets won't go up just yet so they start to pull out sending markets into a small free fall)
phase 7: capitulation/ retest (this is when markets continue to sell off sharply) (expect a 40% retest)
phase 8: despair/retest (this is when markets start to go into another sharp sell off plus 10%+ retests of strong future resistance)
phase 9: return to mean (this is when we will come back up to the mean level of the market)
phase 10: leg down (this is another sharp sell off/ leg down. this is when we will retest lows) (8k should be the low)
phase 11: recovery (this is when we start our recovery phase. markets will take 5 or 10 years to recover from this giant collapse)
on this chart i posted why i thought the stock market was going to crash/patterns. (here are the patterns i listed)
1. bearish divergence
2. market is overvalued
3. price is about to hit the 618 fib level ( 36k )
^^ these are some of the patterns we are still seeing today. we are seeing markets are overvalued + patterns like rising wedges/channels
here i talked about divergence happening in the market and why i think it will crash.
now that i have listed that i will list my other reasons why i think markets will crash.
1. equities vs commodities
marketcap.com.au/wp-...2018/02/gundlach.gif
as you can see on this chart, we are reaching dangerous levels. last time we were at these levels we had 2 major crashes.
2. private debt
static.seekingalpha....saupload_Picerno.png
on this chart you can see the amount of private debt is at at(almost) an ATH. this is something you should keep an eye out since last time private debt was this high the 2008 financial crisis took place.
3. S&P vs real earning yield
twitter.com/Not_Jim_...251660734466/photo/1
this is a good one! as you can see on this chart we have seen that every time we go into negative territory a market crash occurs. right now it is the lowest it has ever been which should be something you need to look at.
4. US profit margin vs linear trend and deviation from linear trend in %
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*CYZq9N1rvoSEbErt
on this chart you can see that the % on this chart is again at a new ATH. this is not good since every time we get a huge spike in it we end up getting a recession (show on chart)
5. buffet indicator
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*hvYBpuw8MTg0N8xL
ATH on this chart too. (note: this is a more controversial indicator)
6. Shiller P.E ratio
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*MO95_Mv-ZtnoH2z_
on this chart you can see that we are reaching dangerous zones. last time we were up in this zone the .com bubble happened.
7. S&P mean regression
miro.medium.com/max/...0/0*DEm1qUrv09H5dA7u
on this chart we are starting to form a new ATH. last time we were in this zone the .com bubble happened.
final:
now that i have shown multiple reasons why the market will crash i will give my final take:
over the past year and so (start of covid) we have seen a lot of people get into stocks/crypto (including gme , bitcoin , and other meme coins) this is usually bearish because we have seen dumb money come in during a lot of historic crashes including: the 2001 .com bubble and the 1987 great depression. i do think that this will be one of the leading causes of the crash behind inflation .
we have seen so much "dumb money" come into markets after covid and i think this will be one of the major reasons we will crash. it seems like everyone is making money without trying.
other reasons for crash:
-covid- covid is still raging in the world. i think we will keep seeing strains that are worse causing economic fear.
-debt- national and private debt is so high eventually the bubble will burst
-dumb money- dumb money has been a problem for over 2 years and i think we will see that crash markets too.
-inflation- inflation is now at 7.5% meaning we could see the inflation bubble pop.
-Russia invades- IMPORTANT- OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS WE HAVE SEEN TENSIONS RISE OVER A POSSIBLE INVASION OF UKRAINE BY RUSSIA. TOMORROW BIDEN AND PUTIN WILL HOLD A PHONE CALL MEETING AT 11 AM ET. I THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DECISION MADE AFTER THE PHONE CALL MEANING TENSIONS COULD STILL RISE. I PERSONALLY THINK RUSSIA WILL IN FACT INVADE UKRAINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN IT WILL MAKE MARKETS START CRASHING FAST.
the final charts:
here are some charts showing why i think markets will crash:
conclusion:
i am sorry that this is a bit long but i do think it is important you read it well since your life could depend on it.