ridethepig | CAD Spot Commentary 2020.02.12
An interesting addition to the Oil dynamics with OPEC cuts coming in March clashing with risk-off flows via coronavirus spillovers and everything else in-between. There is a lot going on; highly recommend tracking the retrace leg in Oil for this one it is really going to act as the main driver for us to lean on over the coming sessions. We can track accurately the isolation of USD and Oil with USDCAD. In diagram below, this one is coming from CADNOK, you will notice NOK outperforming:
You will notice CAD also finding demand into the 1.33xx handle as widely anticipated, happy to sit short USDCAD for now and continue working the sell side. Losing 1.324x in USDCAD will unlock the floodgates for a quick spike towards 1.305x.
Those with a background in waves will know that the impulsive extension is still marginally open but it would take a game changer on the oil front to get us down there in my books which is looking less and less likely given the shift away from Oil. The USDCAD downside can be played for 1H20 before things get difficult again in Oil.
Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
You will notice CAD also finding demand into the 1.33xx handle as widely anticipated, happy to sit short USDCAD for now and continue working the sell side. Losing 1.324x in USDCAD will unlock the floodgates for a quick spike towards 1.305x.
Those with a background in waves will know that the impulsive extension is still marginally open but it would take a game changer on the oil front to get us down there in my books which is looking less and less likely given the shift away from Oil. The USDCAD downside can be played for 1H20 before things get difficult again in Oil.
Don't forget to keep the likes, charts and comments coming!
