USDCAD: So, You Wanna Go SHORT? B4 You Do, You Should Know...

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
UPDATE: For anyone who is thinking to take trades according to my post and looking to go SHORT on this pair, I do want to again emphasize and CAUTION to not be greedy on the trade. As i mention in this post, I would NOT be surprised if prices DO NOT reach target 2 and may not even reach target 1. I would advise to pay close attention to how prices react as it approaches the B point of the Gartley around the 1.26000 level. Personally, if prices do drop as per my analysis, I will take 50% of trade off at the 1.26000 level and let the rest ride to target 1 or close the trade if I see signs of this RETRACEMENT ending and a resumption of the trend. This is a STRONG trend going up and this is a counter-trend trade. I FULLY expect the uptrend to continue and go MUCH higher!

Ok. So everybody and his brother (sister? Uncle? Aunt?) has been looking at this over and over and anticipating a big payday by going SHORT, right? Well, NOT SO FAST!

I (and seems like everybody else here) posted about this large Gartley on the DAILY chart some days ago (see my post under "Related Ideas: ANALYSIS: USDCAD: 2 Bearish Gartley's Point The Way Down" 4 days ago and also "USDCAD 1 Gartley and 1 Cypher with Bullish Morning Star pattern" posted 18 days ago). Well, it is finally here and completed. But WAIT! Should you go SHORT now??? Let's go deeper and examine what's happened and what's happening now....


As you can see here, on the monthly chart, there's a very clear cup and handle pattern. Cup&Handle patterns are trend continuation patterns. The cup is already well-formed. Now we are working on the handle. Handles will usually retrace about 1/3 of the cup height generally. But not always! So in fib terms, the handle should retrace down to the 38.2% range but in very strong impulse waves, it might only retrace to the 23.6% as well. Which this handle already has done.. As seen on the chart, around that area, there is also a strong S/R zone that seems to have been tested already.. You'll also notice that I've labeled the large impulse wave up this pair has been on as a 5 wave advance with prices probably completing wave 4 of 5 and expecting wave 5 up..
Short and sweet...you've seen this before, right?
Here's my wave count of what's possibly happening right now. We could already be in a wave 5 of a 5 wave impulse wave seen on the MONTHLY chart. Explanations are on the chart. CONCLUSION: SO WHAT ABOUT NOW?
Of course, this is what everybody wants to know. If I only had a crystal ball.... USDCAD is at this moment extremely overbought and due for some relief. It should find it in the form of a RETRACE and NOT a REVERSAL. Prices should fall to hit at least Target 1 of the Gartley but I would not be surprised if it does not reach target 2. I would even be cautious that it might not reach Target 1. I say this because currently, according to my wave count, we are still in a very strong uptrend and just starting on wave (5). This retrace down should only be wave (ii) of wave 1 of the larger wave (5) up. And then wave ( iii ) of wave 1 should start. I'll definitely be on the lookout for wave ( iii ) to start.

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Thanks akil! Very good lessen :)
Tijmen_K Tijmen_K
Omg. Sorry thougt is was redding akils post haha Thanks anyway! Follow ;)
LOL! It's a compliment to be mistaken for Akil!
+1 Reply
I thought the elliot wave count was missing #5 so i went long and made a profitable quick scalp. You're saying we're just at wave #1? I'll keep an eye out for #2 then and reenter.
That's just my opinion but yes. That's how I see it. I'm thinking the coming move down per the Gartley should be wave (ii) of (v) of the wave 1 of (5) of the major trend. IMHO, this pair still has some major upside. No trend reversal for some time to come.
Well it may be forming a cup and handle but I am short usdcad and usdchf right now

Other patterns don't really factor into my decision making process... as I have my own plan, but I do agree with your possibility noted above
Great write up. In this particular situation are you looking to buy, sell or hold and wait?
+1 Reply
Thanks, Akil. I'm already short this Gartley you had posted about awhile back.
Akil_Stokes EverythingForex
Not worried about the cup and handle? "Or just wanted to provide different perspective?
If you're referring to the monthly C&H, no. Not worried because I'm not thinking it's ready to break out of the handle just yet. Since it's a monthly chart, the distance of the retrace down for target 1 of the Gartley is miniscule.
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