USDCHF: Trading on the support. Analysis ahead of weekly news.
This is a break down analysis of USDCHF ahead of this week's U.S. (ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) and Swiss (Consumer Confidence) data.
Fundamental Analysis:
- Long term strategists such as Karen Jones (Head of Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank) turn "attention on the 0.961 January low, failure here will target the September 2018 low at 0.9543".
- The week starts off with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: if actual < forecast then the trend has 77.80% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 100% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the Swiss Consumer Confidence gives actual < forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 75% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ADP Employment Change gives actual < forecast then the trend has 83.30% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gives actual < forecast then the trend has 71.40% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 80% chance to go higher in the next 12 and 48 hours.
Technical Analysis:
- The Resistance is set within 0.9765 - 0.9745 and the Support within 0.9625 - 0.9610.
- The MA50 can be the first short term Resistance level.
- The RSI is on a 15 day Support level.
- The MACD hasn't yet rolled over to bullish but is close to the 15 day Support level.
The above mix indicates that the pair has fundamentally slightly more chances to reverse higher on the medium term as there are more probabilities for a bullish move after the news release. However depending on the outcome of the reports, traders should act accordingly. Technically with the price at to top of the Support Zone and both the RSI and MACD on/near a 15 day Support level, there are again more probabilities for a rebound. In our view, traders can wait for the MACD to turn bullish (cross) and target the Resistance Zone.
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Fundamental Analysis:
- Long term strategists such as Karen Jones (Head of Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank) turn "attention on the 0.961 January low, failure here will target the September 2018 low at 0.9543".
- The week starts off with the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: if actual < forecast then the trend has 77.80% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 100% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the Swiss Consumer Confidence gives actual < forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 75% chance to go lower in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ADP Employment Change gives actual < forecast then the trend has 83.30% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 66.70% chance to go higher in the next 12 hours.
- If the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI gives actual < forecast then the trend has 71.40% chance to go higher in the next 48 hours. If actual > forecast then the trend has 80% chance to go higher in the next 12 and 48 hours.
Technical Analysis:
- The Resistance is set within 0.9765 - 0.9745 and the Support within 0.9625 - 0.9610.
- The MA50 can be the first short term Resistance level.
- The RSI is on a 15 day Support level.
- The MACD hasn't yet rolled over to bullish but is close to the 15 day Support level.
The above mix indicates that the pair has fundamentally slightly more chances to reverse higher on the medium term as there are more probabilities for a bullish move after the news release. However depending on the outcome of the reports, traders should act accordingly. Technically with the price at to top of the Support Zone and both the RSI and MACD on/near a 15 day Support level, there are again more probabilities for a rebound. In our view, traders can wait for the MACD to turn bullish (cross) and target the Resistance Zone.
If you like this idea give us a like, follow and share your thoughts in the comments section below. Remember to stay tuned for future technical analysis , news, updates, and more from PrimeXBT!