USDJPY Testing the top of its 5 month Megaphone. Rejection?

The USDJPY pair rose aggressively last week, breaking above its September 22 High, the Resistance at the time. The price came on Friday as close as possible to the top (Higher Highs) trend-line of its 5-month Bullish Megaphone pattern. That alone would be enough to reject the uptrend and pull the price back on its own.

But this isn't the only metric pointing towards a rejection. As you see on the RSI and MACD indicators below the chart, the 1D RSI also hit its 5-month Lower Highs trend-line. This is the 2nd Lower High within 5 weeks and when that happened previously, the pair priced its short-term top and pulled-back. Same with the 1D MACD, which just printed a Bullish Cross. As you see when a Bullish Cross took place that close to the Megaphone's top, the price formed a High and pulled-back.

As for how deep a potential pull-back can go? The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is the short-term target, with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) being the medium-term, having formed the last bottom on August 02. Naturally the pattern is completed on the Higher Lows trend-line.




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