USD/JPY - US Dollar Japanese Yen Strong Bearish
Trend Bearish
New ell signal 13th dec 2023
Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cut
The dollar tumbled against the euro and yen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled in new economic projections that U.S. interest rate increases have come to an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024.
A near unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials project that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024, with the median projection showing the rate falling three-quarters of a percentage point from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. No officials see rates higher by the end of next year.
The Fed kept interest rates steady for the third meeting in a row, as was widely expected.
"The Fed turned decisively dovish this afternoon, waving a red flag in front of market bulls hoping for an easing in policy,"
The U.S. dollar index dropped to 102.89, down 0.83% on the day, and the lowest since Nov. 30.
The euro rose 0.80% to $1.0882 and hit $1.08970, the highest since Dec. 1. The single currency is on track for its largest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 14.
The greenback fell 1.67% to 143.03 Japanese yen, the lowest since Dec. 8..
Powell said the central bank was likely done raising interest rates, but kept open the option to act again if needed, noting that "the economy has surprised forecasters."
He also noted that the question of when it will be appropriate to cut rates is coming into view.
"The Powell Pause may only last until the May meeting. The critical question is whether the Fed will be cutting because it can or because it has to,
However, the U.S. central bank may also cut rates to maintain the level of restrictive policy it is aiming for.
If the Fed holds rates steady as inflation eases the gap between the two rates, known as the real interest rate, can make monetary conditions more restrictive than policymakers intend.
With the Fed meeting now concluded, investors will turn to a host of international central bank meetings on Thursday.
These include the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank. The Norwegian central bank is considered to be the only one that could potentially raise rates. There is also a risk the SNB could dial back its support for the franc in currency markets.
The Bank of Japan also meets next week. The yen has been volatile on speculation that the BOJ is drawing close to ending its negative rate policy. But hopes this may occur next Tuesday were dashed after Bloomberg reported this week that BOJ officials see little need to rush to the exit.
New ell signal 13th dec 2023
Dollar drops as Fed signals coming rate cut
The dollar tumbled against the euro and yen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled in new economic projections that U.S. interest rate increases have come to an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024.
A near unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials project that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024, with the median projection showing the rate falling three-quarters of a percentage point from the current 5.25%-5.50% range. No officials see rates higher by the end of next year.
The Fed kept interest rates steady for the third meeting in a row, as was widely expected.
"The Fed turned decisively dovish this afternoon, waving a red flag in front of market bulls hoping for an easing in policy,"
The U.S. dollar index dropped to 102.89, down 0.83% on the day, and the lowest since Nov. 30.
The euro rose 0.80% to $1.0882 and hit $1.08970, the highest since Dec. 1. The single currency is on track for its largest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 14.
The greenback fell 1.67% to 143.03 Japanese yen, the lowest since Dec. 8..
Powell said the central bank was likely done raising interest rates, but kept open the option to act again if needed, noting that "the economy has surprised forecasters."
He also noted that the question of when it will be appropriate to cut rates is coming into view.
"The Powell Pause may only last until the May meeting. The critical question is whether the Fed will be cutting because it can or because it has to,
However, the U.S. central bank may also cut rates to maintain the level of restrictive policy it is aiming for.
If the Fed holds rates steady as inflation eases the gap between the two rates, known as the real interest rate, can make monetary conditions more restrictive than policymakers intend.
With the Fed meeting now concluded, investors will turn to a host of international central bank meetings on Thursday.
These include the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank. The Norwegian central bank is considered to be the only one that could potentially raise rates. There is also a risk the SNB could dial back its support for the franc in currency markets.
The Bank of Japan also meets next week. The yen has been volatile on speculation that the BOJ is drawing close to ending its negative rate policy. But hopes this may occur next Tuesday were dashed after Bloomberg reported this week that BOJ officials see little need to rush to the exit.
Comment:
The USDJPY pair declined strongly yesterday to surpass our first waited target at 144.47 and rallied bearishly to reach 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at 142.76, noticing that the price begins today with more decline to break this level and open the way to suffer more losses in the upcoming sessions, as the next target reaches 140.65.
Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50 that presses negatively on the price, noting that breaching 142.76 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to start recovery attempts on the intraday basis.
Therefore, we are waiting for more expected decline on the intraday and short-term basis, supported by the EMA50 that presses negatively on the price, noting that breaching 142.76 will stop the current negative pressure and push the price to start recovery attempts on the intraday basis.
Comment:
Treasury yields hit lowest since August, fueling market optimism
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
U.S. stock futures climb as Fed hints at 2024 rate cuts; Dow hits all-time high.
Fed Open Market Committee keeps rates steady; markets react positively to dovish outlook.
Post-Fed, Treasury yields drop to lowest since August, signaling economic optimism.
U.S. stock futures experienced a significant uplift Wednesday night, following the Federal Reserve’s indication of possible rate cuts in 2024.
US DOLLAR DOWN YIELDS DOWN ASSETS vs Dollar UP
Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Signal
The Federal Open Market Committee maintained interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5%, aligning with market expectations. However, the revelation of potential rate cuts in 2024 spurred a positive shift in market sentiment. The Fed’s decision, signifying the potential end of a cycle that included 11 rate hikes, has been viewed as a pivot towards a softer monetary policy approach
Impact on Treasury Yields
The Fed’s announcement influenced Treasury yields, with the 10-year note hitting its lowest since August. The dovish outlook implies further cuts through 2025 and 2026, potentially lowering the fed funds rate to 2%-2.25%. This forecast aligns with a brighter inflation outlook, as indicated by recent consumer and wholesale price data
Solar Stocks Respond Positively
The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) saw a significant increase, with constituent stocks like Enphase Energy, SolarEdge Technologies, and Sunrun recording notable gains. This uptrend reflects the solar industry’s sensitivity to interest rates, as lower rates could reduce financing costs and improve valuations.
Comment:
USD/JPY Dips after US CPI miss but the Yen struggles to appreciate
The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for a number of weeks now as markets braced for the possibility of FX intervention from Japanese officials which has not yet materialized. Earlier this morning the Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki was not going to be drawn into comments around current FX levels but reaffirmed he is aware of the pros and cons of a weak yen.
One thing to note now is that oil prices have eased considerably in the last three weeks, meaning a weaker yen is more tolerable. Oil reliant companies will see their fuel costs easing and the continued yen depreciation supports attractively priced Japanese exports.
The USD/JPY pair printed a new yearly high yesterday, without much push back from Japanese officials. Markets have become more emboldened to trade above the 150 market for extended periods of time as the immediate threat of FX intervention has faded. The pair is down only 0.7% at the time of writing while GBP/USD is up more the 1.7% - revealing the inability of the yen to take advantage of the move.
The pair heads towards 150 but the uptrend has been relentless, keeping well above the dynamic level of support shown by the blue 50-day simple moving average. In the absence of intervention, it would appear that a significant decline in USD/JPY will be a massive challenge even as US data eases.
The Japanese yen has depreciated against the US dollar for a number of weeks now as markets braced for the possibility of FX intervention from Japanese officials which has not yet materialized. Earlier this morning the Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki was not going to be drawn into comments around current FX levels but reaffirmed he is aware of the pros and cons of a weak yen.
One thing to note now is that oil prices have eased considerably in the last three weeks, meaning a weaker yen is more tolerable. Oil reliant companies will see their fuel costs easing and the continued yen depreciation supports attractively priced Japanese exports.
The USD/JPY pair printed a new yearly high yesterday, without much push back from Japanese officials. Markets have become more emboldened to trade above the 150 market for extended periods of time as the immediate threat of FX intervention has faded. The pair is down only 0.7% at the time of writing while GBP/USD is up more the 1.7% - revealing the inability of the yen to take advantage of the move.
The pair heads towards 150 but the uptrend has been relentless, keeping well above the dynamic level of support shown by the blue 50-day simple moving average. In the absence of intervention, it would appear that a significant decline in USD/JPY will be a massive challenge even as US data eases.
Comment:
Shorter-dated and front-end expiry FX option implied volatility trades near long-term lows in many of the major currency pairs, but appears to be finding support.
A recent increase in risk appetite amid falling realised FX volatility has weighed on option premium ahead of the Christmas and New Year holiday lull. However, the delicate balance between time decay and potential amplified FX volatility - especially towards month-end in thin holiday markets - seems to have reached an equilibrium.
Markets exhibit a more aggressive stance on 2024 rate cut expectations than major central banks are hinting at. This disparity might lead to increased FX volatility as these views converge, drawing buyers towards the existing low implied volatility levels.
JPY related implied volatility fell after the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish bias on Tuesday, but it failed to threaten recent lows as focus shifts to BoJ meetings in early 2024. On Thursday, one-month included the Jan.23 BoJ meeting and related implied volatility and JPY call premium gains show that dealers are taking no chances. However, the March and April meetings are deemed more likely to see a rate hike and related volatility/JPY gains.
A recent increase in risk appetite amid falling realised FX volatility has weighed on option premium ahead of the Christmas and New Year holiday lull. However, the delicate balance between time decay and potential amplified FX volatility - especially towards month-end in thin holiday markets - seems to have reached an equilibrium.
Markets exhibit a more aggressive stance on 2024 rate cut expectations than major central banks are hinting at. This disparity might lead to increased FX volatility as these views converge, drawing buyers towards the existing low implied volatility levels.
JPY related implied volatility fell after the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish bias on Tuesday, but it failed to threaten recent lows as focus shifts to BoJ meetings in early 2024. On Thursday, one-month included the Jan.23 BoJ meeting and related implied volatility and JPY call premium gains show that dealers are taking no chances. However, the March and April meetings are deemed more likely to see a rate hike and related volatility/JPY gains.
Comment:
the bullish sentiment in the yen makes the yen stronger and a stronger yen will help inflation ease in Japan, and slow inflation will allow the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to remain relaxed about normalizing policy. Indeed, released this morning, the BoJ core inflation fell more than expected to 2.7%. Bingo! Therefore, it looks like the USD/JPY’s downside potential may be coming to a point of exhaustion near the 140 – in the absence of fresh news.
Comment:
trend bearish
Japanese inflation indicators have been heading lower. Last week, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped in November from 2.9% to 2.5%. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan’s Core CPI index followed suit and declined to 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in October.
Core inflation may have dropped in November, but it has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target for well over a year and speculation is high that the central bank will shift policy and lift interest rates from negative territory, perhaps in early 2024. Such a move would mark a sea change in monetary policy, after decades of negative rates.
We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it’s a safe bet that a shift in rate policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets.
BoJ Governor Ueda has hinted that the economy is slowly moving towards the BoJ target, but the central bank wants to see stronger wage growth before it considers inflation to be sustainable. The BoJ has insisted that current inflation is being driven by cost-push factors and is not sustainable. On Monday, Ueda said that he would consider shifting policy if the “cycle between wages and prices intensifies” but added that there was no specific timing to changing the Bank’s ultra-loose policy.
The US wrapped up last week with the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The headline reading fell to 2.6% y/y in November, down from a downwardly revised 2.9% in October and lower than the market consensus of 2.8%. The core rate eased to 3.2%, down from a downwardly revised 3.4% and lower than the market consensus of 3.3%.
The numbers are welcome news for the Fed and support the case for rate cuts next year. Fed Chair Powell has pencilled in three cuts in 2024 but the markets have priced in up to six cuts. Investors have priced in a rate cut in January at 14%, up from 8% a week ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
Japanese inflation indicators have been heading lower. Last week, Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped in November from 2.9% to 2.5%. On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan’s Core CPI index followed suit and declined to 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in October.
Core inflation may have dropped in November, but it has exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target for well over a year and speculation is high that the central bank will shift policy and lift interest rates from negative territory, perhaps in early 2024. Such a move would mark a sea change in monetary policy, after decades of negative rates.
We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it’s a safe bet that a shift in rate policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets.
BoJ Governor Ueda has hinted that the economy is slowly moving towards the BoJ target, but the central bank wants to see stronger wage growth before it considers inflation to be sustainable. The BoJ has insisted that current inflation is being driven by cost-push factors and is not sustainable. On Monday, Ueda said that he would consider shifting policy if the “cycle between wages and prices intensifies” but added that there was no specific timing to changing the Bank’s ultra-loose policy.
The US wrapped up last week with the PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The headline reading fell to 2.6% y/y in November, down from a downwardly revised 2.9% in October and lower than the market consensus of 2.8%. The core rate eased to 3.2%, down from a downwardly revised 3.4% and lower than the market consensus of 3.3%.
The numbers are welcome news for the Fed and support the case for rate cuts next year. Fed Chair Powell has pencilled in three cuts in 2024 but the markets have priced in up to six cuts. Investors have priced in a rate cut in January at 14%, up from 8% a week ago, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.
Comment:
Strong Bearish-
Now after hort term and intermediate bearish short trend of the USD/JPY started very trongly, the bearish trend entered today 10. am. Tokyo time a new era:The long term Bearish short trend started based on my trading systems. I increased my short selling position on +25% at 141.83.
BOJ’s Ueda Prepares Ground for Rate Hike With Salvo of Comments
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continued to prepare the ground for the nation’s first interest rate increase since 2007 with another round of comments that further build the case for a move in the spring while not ruling out the less probable option of a January hike. It’s possible to make some decisions even if the bank doesn’t have the full results of spring wage negotiations from small- and middle-sized businesses
The latest comments from the governor, in a busy week of signaling from the central bank, suggest the BOJ may be less likely to wait until July to raise rates when more complete pay deal data is compiled by Rengo, the nation’s largest union federation.
While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates aggressively to tackle soaring prices, the BOJ has stuck with the world’s last remaining negative interest rate as it tries to fuel a positive cycle of inflation supported by pay gains.
Now after hort term and intermediate bearish short trend of the USD/JPY started very trongly, the bearish trend entered today 10. am. Tokyo time a new era:The long term Bearish short trend started based on my trading systems. I increased my short selling position on +25% at 141.83.
BOJ’s Ueda Prepares Ground for Rate Hike With Salvo of Comments
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continued to prepare the ground for the nation’s first interest rate increase since 2007 with another round of comments that further build the case for a move in the spring while not ruling out the less probable option of a January hike. It’s possible to make some decisions even if the bank doesn’t have the full results of spring wage negotiations from small- and middle-sized businesses
The latest comments from the governor, in a busy week of signaling from the central bank, suggest the BOJ may be less likely to wait until July to raise rates when more complete pay deal data is compiled by Rengo, the nation’s largest union federation.
While the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised rates aggressively to tackle soaring prices, the BOJ has stuck with the world’s last remaining negative interest rate as it tries to fuel a positive cycle of inflation supported by pay gains.
Comment:
US Pending Home Sales Index Holds at Lowest Level on Record
A gauge of pending US existing-home purchases held at a record low in November, indicating a weak resale market beset by a lack of inventory and high prices.
US jobless claims rose for second straight week after ticking up before Christmas
US: 7Y high yield 3.859%, WI 3.837%, 2.2bps tail; biggest tail since Nov 2022
GOOD FOR NASDAQ AND CO,bad for inflation and U Dollar
A gauge of pending US existing-home purchases held at a record low in November, indicating a weak resale market beset by a lack of inventory and high prices.
US jobless claims rose for second straight week after ticking up before Christmas
US: 7Y high yield 3.859%, WI 3.837%, 2.2bps tail; biggest tail since Nov 2022
GOOD FOR NASDAQ AND CO,bad for inflation and U Dollar
Comment:
Japanese core inflation falls to 2.5%, as expected
US to release PCE Price Index on Friday
The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.03, down 0.06%.
Japanese core inflation eases to 2.5%
Japan’s Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped to 2.5% in November, matching the consensus estimate. This was down from the October gain of 2.9% and marked the lowest reading since July 2022. Still, it was the twentieth consecutive month that the core rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%. The headline figure dropped to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in October.
The yen shrugged off the drop in inflation, taking a breather after surging 1% a day earlier. The sharp gains were driven by the third-estimate US GDP for Q3, which came in at 4.9%, lower than the second estimate of 5.2%. The drop in GDP was driven by weaker consumer spending, but the economy remains strong, as the 4.9% gain was the highest level since Q4 2021.
The BoJ released on Friday the minutes of its October 31 meeting, when the central bank unexpectedly tweaked its yield curve control (YCC) program. The yen took a bath and fell 1.78% on the day of the meeting, as the markets viewed the move as a step by the BoJ’s to phasing out its ultra-easy monetary policy. The minutes indicated that board members were divided on whether the BoJ should make clear that the tweak was not a step towards ending YCC, or should the Bank “not strongly deny” that the tweak could lead to an end of YCC. The debate highlights that board members are well aware that a shift in policy can have a significant impact on the currency markets, as was evident with the yen’s plunge following the October meeting.
The US wraps up the week with the PCE Price Index, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The headline and core readings are expected to remain unchanged in November, at 0.2% and 0%, respectively. Recent inflation readings have had a strong impact on the movement of the US dollar, and that could be the case later today if the headline or core rate readings are wide of the estimates.
US to release PCE Price Index on Friday
The Japanese yen is showing little movement on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.03, down 0.06%.
Japanese core inflation eases to 2.5%
Japan’s Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes fuel costs, dropped to 2.5% in November, matching the consensus estimate. This was down from the October gain of 2.9% and marked the lowest reading since July 2022. Still, it was the twentieth consecutive month that the core rate has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s target of 2%. The headline figure dropped to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in October.
The yen shrugged off the drop in inflation, taking a breather after surging 1% a day earlier. The sharp gains were driven by the third-estimate US GDP for Q3, which came in at 4.9%, lower than the second estimate of 5.2%. The drop in GDP was driven by weaker consumer spending, but the economy remains strong, as the 4.9% gain was the highest level since Q4 2021.
The BoJ released on Friday the minutes of its October 31 meeting, when the central bank unexpectedly tweaked its yield curve control (YCC) program. The yen took a bath and fell 1.78% on the day of the meeting, as the markets viewed the move as a step by the BoJ’s to phasing out its ultra-easy monetary policy. The minutes indicated that board members were divided on whether the BoJ should make clear that the tweak was not a step towards ending YCC, or should the Bank “not strongly deny” that the tweak could lead to an end of YCC. The debate highlights that board members are well aware that a shift in policy can have a significant impact on the currency markets, as was evident with the yen’s plunge following the October meeting.
The US wraps up the week with the PCE Price Index, which is considered the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator. The headline and core readings are expected to remain unchanged in November, at 0.2% and 0%, respectively. Recent inflation readings have had a strong impact on the movement of the US dollar, and that could be the case later today if the headline or core rate readings are wide of the estimates.
Comment:
BoJ Summary of Opinion highlights split over shift in policy
The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.54, up 0.12%.
The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the December meeting was released earlier today. That meeting was somewhat of a disappointment to the markets, as there were expectations of a move after senior BoJ members hinted prior to the meeting that the Bank was looking to lift interest rates out of negative territory. In the end, the BoJ stayed put and maintained policy settings.
The summary highlighted the split amongst board members regarding the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. One member stated that the timing of normalizing policy was “getting closer” but another member said that the BoJ could wait until after wage talks next spring.
The internal debate revolves around the key question as to when inflation will become sustainable at the 2% target. Governor Ueda has argued that wage growth must increase before inflation is sustainable and that the current high rate of inflation is due to cost-push factors. This means that national wage talks in April will play a key role in determining the BoJ’s rate policy. The takeaway from the summary is that an exit from ultra-loose policy is a question of when rather than if, and that there are differences of opinion within the central bank as to the timing of a shift in policy.
We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it’s a safe bet that a shift in policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. The BoJ holds its next meeting on January 22-23.
The Japanese yen continues to have a quiet week. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.54, up 0.12%.
The Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the December meeting was released earlier today. That meeting was somewhat of a disappointment to the markets, as there were expectations of a move after senior BoJ members hinted prior to the meeting that the Bank was looking to lift interest rates out of negative territory. In the end, the BoJ stayed put and maintained policy settings.
The summary highlighted the split amongst board members regarding the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. One member stated that the timing of normalizing policy was “getting closer” but another member said that the BoJ could wait until after wage talks next spring.
The internal debate revolves around the key question as to when inflation will become sustainable at the 2% target. Governor Ueda has argued that wage growth must increase before inflation is sustainable and that the current high rate of inflation is due to cost-push factors. This means that national wage talks in April will play a key role in determining the BoJ’s rate policy. The takeaway from the summary is that an exit from ultra-loose policy is a question of when rather than if, and that there are differences of opinion within the central bank as to the timing of a shift in policy.
We have seen that tweaks to the yield curve control program have triggered sharp movement from the yen, and it’s a safe bet that a shift in policy would send the yen flying higher. BoJ policy meetings have become market-moving events and every comment from a senior BoJ official has the potential to shake up the currency markets. The BoJ holds its next meeting on January 22-23.
Comment:
Federal Reserve 2023 monetary policy recap: Fed Chair Powell breaks down interest decisions
Comment:
Trend down old more usd
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Dollar tentative as investors await Fed Dollar tentative as investors await Fed minutes
Gold firms on Fed rate-cut hopes; US data in focus
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by the prospect of interest rate cuts in 2024 from the Federal Reserve, while investors look forward to a slew of economic data this week for more clarity on the U.S. rate outlook.
Markets are now pricing in an 86% chance of rate cuts from the Fed in March, according to CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Also on the radar, data on U.S. job openings and December non-farm payrolls will also been keenly watched for more clarity on Fed rate path.
Comment:
All short positions closed.Now all longs are active agian.
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USDJPY BULLISH SHORT HEDGES CLOSED U.S. Treasury yields extend
More: click on thi chart
USDJPY BULLISH SHORT HEDGES CLOSED U.S. Treasury yields extend
The Federal Reserve concluded its last FOMC meeting of the year, and as expected, they kept their benchmark interest rate unchanged.
Seventeen voting members are all predicting interest rate cuts next year, with five officials projecting a decrease of ¾%, five officials anticipating a larger rate cut than ¾%, and the remaining two voting members anticipating no rate cuts next year. According to their economic projections, the Fed believes core inflation will peak at 2.4% next year, which is lower than its projections in September of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve is also projecting inflation will cool to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Their projections anticipate unemployment rising to 4.1% in 2024 and remaining at that level through 2026. The Fed also anticipates an economic deceleration forecasting growth at 1.4% next year, and rising to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026