Japan is heading for a recession.
Q419 QoQ annualised GDP coming in at -6% BEFORE the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak had been flagged. Subsequent to Japan's 2 percentage point October consumption tax hike, there was an expected decline in expenditure which in our view will carry on into Q120 growth numbers.
What we see happening
- Macro risk off themes should in the short term keep Yen bid where we currently remained positioned (net long)
- The existing fiscal stimulus policy which may negate the effects of the consumption tax, is likely to be insufficient to battle decline growth themes which may warrant monetary stimulus shift in the BoJ.
- Any material shift in this regard may be exacerbated by a contraction in global growth, with capital flight into the dollar
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
Like, subscribe and leave your comments below!
Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management
Q419 QoQ annualised GDP coming in at -6% BEFORE the impacts of the coronavirus outbreak had been flagged. Subsequent to Japan's 2 percentage point October consumption tax hike, there was an expected decline in expenditure which in our view will carry on into Q120 growth numbers.
What we see happening
- Macro risk off themes should in the short term keep Yen bid where we currently remained positioned (net long)
- The existing fiscal stimulus policy which may negate the effects of the consumption tax, is likely to be insufficient to battle decline growth themes which may warrant monetary stimulus shift in the BoJ.
- Any material shift in this regard may be exacerbated by a contraction in global growth, with capital flight into the dollar
We look forward to continuing to provide market leading analysis to traders & investors alike across the TradingView platform.
Like, subscribe and leave your comments below!
Until next time,
Portier Capital
Macro Strategy & Portfolio Management