DanV
Short

USDJPY - POTENTIAL SHORT IN WAVE "C" DECLINE

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
Since publishing last USDJPY             chart suggesting bearish pull back or correction the price action has been relatively choppy and sideways congestion with associated difficulties in labelling correct counts on each swings.

However it appears that with initial zigzag decline in to Dec low, the price action has formed what appears to be bearish triangle which could be complete offering potential short opportunity in wave C decline which should be comparatively strong not overlapping 5 wave decline to conservative 114 downside target.

Summary:

1. Bearish triangle.
2. RSI divergence with price between point C and E.
3. Important 120 level appears to be strong resistance which it failed to take out so far.
4. It has been out of sync with SP500             for sometime which could now could now snap back with both declining together (see chart below)
5. Invalidation pint would be 120.45
6. Potential downside target 114 (conservative)

As always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement. Select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. If you like the analysis then please indicate this by thumbs up, comments and sharing with others. If you have an alternative idea then please share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
USDJPY & SP500 correlation chart referred to above
snapshot
+1 Reply
Iridium DanV
2 years ago
sub wave b is a clear ending diagonal that completes a 3-3-5 flat. There is going to be a pull back most likely to the 117.00 level which could start to form a triangle
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Seems possible, this was the choppiest of rallies, so really not sure we saw the end of the correction as I first thought.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Indeed. I have been of the view that larger pull back was in progress but struggled to put labels till just now when I posted the above chart and feel it has good chance of playing out.
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
Correction - Invalidation is 120.85
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+1 Reply
kumarz
2 years ago
hah, it almost looks like someone's purposely fking with your charts for fun ... I still think your wave C is still due(started at the reversal from 121.3 ?),
snapshot
but I am seeing a slightly different ABC. Anyway, we shall see what surmises :) Fundamentally speaking tho, i think we're due a retest of 135s:
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... not touching this trade for few months atleast! gd luck all and soz for the chart spam
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DanV MOD kumarz
2 years ago
Hi. thank you for that positive interaction, I appreciate it. I think that Friday's high could be an overshoot and wave C will still develop. It is also possible that the minor counts in the triangle are adjusted to show that Friday's high was in fact ending diagonal in which case there is higher probability that it will develop wave c.

On the other questions about wave 3 in your above chart, my view is that it is actually abc X abc rather than 5 wave from 2012 low. Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
HarryPotter
2 years ago
chart is invalidated ? hmmm
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DanV MOD
2 years ago
UJ pattern has evolved little differently than originally published. However still looking good with overall similar expectation. It would be expanded flat. So for now attempting another short. As long as today's high holds. So clearly defined risk. Here is the chart
snapshot
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