quantguy

USD Strong on Geopolitical Factors

Long
FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
The US dollar has been a bit volatile over the past several weeks owing to mixed signals over the trade war, an ongoing spat between Trump and the Fed over the trajectory of interest rate hikes, and the ongoing NAFTA saga.

Although the technicals for USDJPY seem to be bearish at the moment, we don't have a lot of conviction.

The current price of USDJPY is 111.09.

We will find resistance from levels from above including:

111.84 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
112.16 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods
113.14 from highs and lows

We will find support from levels from below including the following:

109.80 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
109.25 from highs and lows

As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility is much lower than usual, anticipate a breakout soon. The RSI is 50, which suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. USDJPY is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 111.18, indicating bearishness. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging.

We are above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 111.01, and fairly close to it. If we can gain some momentum, the upper bound of the KRI indicator at 111.87 will provide resistance.


Daily scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 2 Ranging Score: 2

USDJPY intraday seems to be poised for a bull breakout. There is a bull wedge forming on 15 minute candles and the Kovach OBV is strong.

We will find resistance from levels from above including the following:

111.54 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods
111.84 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods

Levels from below will provide support, including:

110.94 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods
110.70 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods

As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility is much higher than usual. We should expect some consolidation at some point. The RSI is 62, indicating that we are in a bull trend, but not yet overbought. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. USDJPY intraday is above the 50 period SMA, indicating a bull trend. Furthermore, We are well above the 100 period SMA, which suggests that we are overbought. Finally, the 50 period SMA is even with the 100 period SMA, indicating longer term ranging. The ADX indicator is bullish.

Currently, USDJPY intraday is above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, which sits at about 111.29. However, it is getting closer to the upper bound of this indicator at 111.59, which will provide resistance.


Intraday Scores:Bull Score: 6 Bear Score: 0 Ranging Score: 1

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