Hi all,
Thanks for viewing. I am relatively new to TA and am not a professional. I am very new to FOREX and generally don't see it as an investment vehicle of preference. I am not currently in a FOREX trade. I am also not super careful with my wave degrees, only aiming to show smaller and larger degree trends, and avoid some wave degrees because I feel they clutter the screen. This is posted to further my own technical analysis education and is based on looking at the chart for about 10 minutes.
But this is a potentially very profitable set-up and I may not be able to ignore it if this scenario ends up developing.
Situation; in 2012 the USD started a bull-run vs the yen that ended peaking in 2015 +60% at ~126 yen / usd. FOREX is often described as having insufficient volatility to be profitable to trade - but that is quite a bull run. It also may have gone a little too far - as evidenced by the 2015 to present correction. My view is that the correction is a little over 50% complete. The A wave doesn't seem to resemble a single or series of zig-zag corrections and on the face of it appears to have been a 5 (larger degree) sub-wave corrective move to form wave A.
If my view is correct we also may have the wave 1 and maybe even wave 2 peak in place of wave C down to ~90 yen / USD. If I enter it will be on a break below the wave 1 peak as this holds the lowest risk of a relatively close stop-loss not being triggered. When the price has dropped quite a bit I will lower my stop to the break-even point and let it ride - unless I decide to play wave 3 and 5 separately.
The green box for the end of wave 3 is just a zone to track the progress of this call. The larger green box represents a 1:1 extension of wave A extended from both the wave B peak and also from the start of what I wave termed wave 1 to give a possible range. It is confluent with between the 1.618 and 2.618 extension of what is labelled wave 1 in wave C. My expectation is that, if this develops, wave 3 (most likely - as in wave A) or wave 5 is likely to be extended. Saying that, price may fall short of the 1:1 wave A extension, or it may even exceed it. I for one, will be very interested to see how this all develops. This scenario is consistent with my previous post on the USDX, although was arrived at independently.
Thanks for viewing. I am relatively new to TA and am not a professional. I am very new to FOREX and generally don't see it as an investment vehicle of preference. I am not currently in a FOREX trade. I am also not super careful with my wave degrees, only aiming to show smaller and larger degree trends, and avoid some wave degrees because I feel they clutter the screen. This is posted to further my own technical analysis education and is based on looking at the chart for about 10 minutes.
But this is a potentially very profitable set-up and I may not be able to ignore it if this scenario ends up developing.
Situation; in 2012 the USD started a bull-run vs the yen that ended peaking in 2015 +60% at ~126 yen / usd. FOREX is often described as having insufficient volatility to be profitable to trade - but that is quite a bull run. It also may have gone a little too far - as evidenced by the 2015 to present correction. My view is that the correction is a little over 50% complete. The A wave doesn't seem to resemble a single or series of zig-zag corrections and on the face of it appears to have been a 5 (larger degree) sub-wave corrective move to form wave A.
If my view is correct we also may have the wave 1 and maybe even wave 2 peak in place of wave C down to ~90 yen / USD. If I enter it will be on a break below the wave 1 peak as this holds the lowest risk of a relatively close stop-loss not being triggered. When the price has dropped quite a bit I will lower my stop to the break-even point and let it ride - unless I decide to play wave 3 and 5 separately.
The green box for the end of wave 3 is just a zone to track the progress of this call. The larger green box represents a 1:1 extension of wave A extended from both the wave B peak and also from the start of what I wave termed wave 1 to give a possible range. It is confluent with between the 1.618 and 2.618 extension of what is labelled wave 1 in wave C. My expectation is that, if this develops, wave 3 (most likely - as in wave A) or wave 5 is likely to be extended. Saying that, price may fall short of the 1:1 wave A extension, or it may even exceed it. I for one, will be very interested to see how this all develops. This scenario is consistent with my previous post on the USDX, although was arrived at independently.