botje11

USDMXN triangle play

FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
Looks like a solid triangle here and from the looks of it we will probably see a break on the upside. But every triangle can go both ways. So i am going to wait for some confirmation first. So i want to see it move like one of the blue lines first before going in the trade. So a break of the triangle and a retest.


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Previous analysis:

Comment: So we broke the resistance and made a quick textbook pullback to test the former resistance zone. Pullbacks don't always happen, but with FX they usually do, if we don't see a big squeeze at the breakout. On the right we can see that we might even have done that bigger pullback already (yellow zone). With FX pullbacks are not always textbook to bounce up from the former resistance zone. So i am going to keep my stop around that green support on the bottom right chart, just below the entry. If we start to move up i will slowly move my stop up as well

Comment: Before i forget, i have drawn a big bearish wedge on the left, which is my next game plan. Will depend on how things go the coming days
Comment: Still following the blue line (pullback scenario), but imo it has dropped a bit to much to be very convincing. There is still a chance for another move up, but i don't think it will be that strong. If we get towards the high of that possible wedge, i will close take profit and might even turn short there.

Comment: Unfortunately this one did not work out. Even worse, missing the entry for the bearish wedge. Poorly played :(
Part of the game, up to the next. Bitcoin has taken all the attention lately :(

Comments

It will go down december 1st due to the mexican president taking control of the country
+5 Reply
botje11 megajuanca18
@megajuanca18, I am not aware of those fundamentals, but the daily does show a possible bearish wedge. So that would fit that picture your saying
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Thank you so much for this David! I had been hoping you did a usdmxn chart, very helpful. I know it's not that big of a pairing, but if you can take a quick look at eurmxn, that would be even more helpful! Not even a chart just your thoughts would be great. Thanks as always
+1 Reply
botje11 OSx28
@OSx28, Clear channel on the daily, even though first daily says down, lower time frame gives chance to the upside. Also a trend line there to watch on the 1H
+3 Reply
OSx28 botje11
@botje11, Ok yes, I see it. Many thanks again!
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Bearish medium divirgence
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