What goes up has to come down - really?

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
There is a received wisdom that what goes up has to come down. Well, this currency pair trend may defy that rule. We shall have to wait and see.

For sure there are corrections to be expected. This begs the question of what does 'down' mean? Is 'down'
- a correction? or
- does it mean a fall below its original starting point?

If you take it as below some original starting point then USDTRY may never actually go 'down' to a level pre-2011.

If you take 'down' to mean a significant correction then yes the pair is overdue a correction. I would argue that a 'significant correction' means a retracement greater than 50% from starting point - to somewhere around 5. That may seem improbable but strange things do happen. I'm not making any predictions here. I don't do predictions.

TRY met an all time low on Friday 12th Nov meaning it would have taken about 8 TRY to buy one USD (or one USD would have bought you 8 TRY). Then something 'magical' happened and it appeared to strengthen. This followed major turmoil in Turkey (read the news).

But keep in mind that the ratio of USD to TRY is based on US Dollar strength, which is not easy to estimate, as everything is relative.

If your US Dollar weakens further this could and bearish pressure to the ratio (that doesn't mean it's going south).

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