USDZAR 1:4 Risk Reward SHORT (Fundamental Analysis)
USD Fundamentals
Fundamental Quant Scores dipped to a negative -3
- Continuuing Jobless claims increased by 6,000 suggesting more US citizens are claiming credit to help support their lifestyle.
- Latest GDP for Q4 showed a less than forecast outcome missing it by 0.2%
- Pending Home sales a huge leading indicator dropped to -1% when forecast to stay above 0
- More gas supplies suggests less capital efficiency and more asset storage, so less vehicles are being used, manufacturing is slowing down and is bearish for GAS which can also affect CAD
ZAR
Fundamental Quant score +33 shows bullish signal
- PPI increased to 0.3% showing South African Producers are bullish of the ZAR
- Interest Rates stayed the same with no signs of change, suggesting investors from abroad can take advantage of their high interest rates.
- Retail sales on 20th grew by 1.2% showing a strong consumer population
Fundamental Quant Scores dipped to a negative -3
- Continuuing Jobless claims increased by 6,000 suggesting more US citizens are claiming credit to help support their lifestyle.
- Latest GDP for Q4 showed a less than forecast outcome missing it by 0.2%
- Pending Home sales a huge leading indicator dropped to -1% when forecast to stay above 0
- More gas supplies suggests less capital efficiency and more asset storage, so less vehicles are being used, manufacturing is slowing down and is bearish for GAS which can also affect CAD
ZAR
Fundamental Quant score +33 shows bullish signal
- PPI increased to 0.3% showing South African Producers are bullish of the ZAR
- Interest Rates stayed the same with no signs of change, suggesting investors from abroad can take advantage of their high interest rates.
- Retail sales on 20th grew by 1.2% showing a strong consumer population
Comment:
Momentum and fundamentals still in favour of the short, starting to reach areas of buying likely to see some support but overall short in the long term.
Comment:
US employment data could push the position even further, however, the preliminary labour statistics are suggesting healthy employment in the US with less people claiming jobless credit and less job cuts meaning more people in employment and spending money in the economy.
A good option could be to scale out, this is supported by the +2 quant shift in USD. It would also protect the position from any unwanted volatility.
A good option could be to scale out, this is supported by the +2 quant shift in USD. It would also protect the position from any unwanted volatility.
Trade closed manually:
Fundamentals shifted in favour of USD and not so much for ZAR. Closed position as fundamental quant scores no longer fit my bias for the pair.
