US CPI October 2022 Forecast Related to USOIL Price
Buy the dollar till the DXY index hit 125. Some of you might have been familiar with my US CPI forecast based on Oil and last time in September 2022 CPI I predicted 8.1%-7.8% during pre-data release. Turns out the MoM inflation for September 2022 was at 8.2%, a bit off 0.1% from my forecast.
So what happened here actually? As you can see that during the September period the price of USOIL ranged from 90-81USD per barrel from 1-23 September and then break to around 76USD per barrel during the fourth week of the month. Of course, the fourth week of the month did not give any significant impact on the final calculation of the CPI due to the price range from the first to the third week already at 90-81 per barrel. Now, in the first week of October, USOIL started rallying back again to 93USD per barrel due to a supply cut from OPEC+.
As for the current situation the USOIL raging from 93-82USD per barrel which is considerably high still. I am predicting that inflation in the US is not yet cooled down and will be raging around 8.4-8.1%. 75bps hike is already on the table but the question is if the inflation on October 2022 gives a shock to the FED, will they consider 100bps at the next meeting?
I am also waiting for the USOIL price to react to the Joe Biden move in which released the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Currently, there is not enough data to conclude that USOIL prices will go down as the OPEC+ members cut oil production which is an equal move to Joe Biden.
That's it for my forecast. Just buy the dollar.
So what happened here actually? As you can see that during the September period the price of USOIL ranged from 90-81USD per barrel from 1-23 September and then break to around 76USD per barrel during the fourth week of the month. Of course, the fourth week of the month did not give any significant impact on the final calculation of the CPI due to the price range from the first to the third week already at 90-81 per barrel. Now, in the first week of October, USOIL started rallying back again to 93USD per barrel due to a supply cut from OPEC+.
As for the current situation the USOIL raging from 93-82USD per barrel which is considerably high still. I am predicting that inflation in the US is not yet cooled down and will be raging around 8.4-8.1%. 75bps hike is already on the table but the question is if the inflation on October 2022 gives a shock to the FED, will they consider 100bps at the next meeting?
I am also waiting for the USOIL price to react to the Joe Biden move in which released the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Currently, there is not enough data to conclude that USOIL prices will go down as the OPEC+ members cut oil production which is an equal move to Joe Biden.
That's it for my forecast. Just buy the dollar.