Oil needs to stay below 95-100USD for disinflation to continue
Hello friends.
Theres a lot of stuff going on in the crypto space but we keep our head clear. We flipped net long on our portfolio after BTC's last drop to 15K as we believe this is the 5th wave of the impulse down. If you are interested to see our portfolio, please refer to the links below.
We expect a rough ride till at least the end of November but we see a lot of positive signs for a market recovery. The most important one is inflation coming down. In order to keep this trend of prices coming down, we need to have a close look at the oil price. We dont know what the sanctions on Russian oil will imply for the market, so we need to wait and see. So we keep it simple: for disinflation to continue we need to keep the oil price roughly below 93 USD, where the POC resides (wicks to 100 USD excluded). If oil breaks out above 100 USD we have a big problem.
Yet as shown on the chart, we believe the oil bull run has calmed down and believe price will stay in the range between 93 and 56 USD. Hopefully we can continue our impulse waves down to land on 56 USD volume support. Yet, in the current macro and geopolitical environment we need to be careful with projections as any event can invalidate it immediately. Oil is leading for inflation and we hope consumers, businesses and the market will find relief with a lower oil price.
I wish everyone good luck!
Theres a lot of stuff going on in the crypto space but we keep our head clear. We flipped net long on our portfolio after BTC's last drop to 15K as we believe this is the 5th wave of the impulse down. If you are interested to see our portfolio, please refer to the links below.
We expect a rough ride till at least the end of November but we see a lot of positive signs for a market recovery. The most important one is inflation coming down. In order to keep this trend of prices coming down, we need to have a close look at the oil price. We dont know what the sanctions on Russian oil will imply for the market, so we need to wait and see. So we keep it simple: for disinflation to continue we need to keep the oil price roughly below 93 USD, where the POC resides (wicks to 100 USD excluded). If oil breaks out above 100 USD we have a big problem.
Yet as shown on the chart, we believe the oil bull run has calmed down and believe price will stay in the range between 93 and 56 USD. Hopefully we can continue our impulse waves down to land on 56 USD volume support. Yet, in the current macro and geopolitical environment we need to be careful with projections as any event can invalidate it immediately. Oil is leading for inflation and we hope consumers, businesses and the market will find relief with a lower oil price.
I wish everyone good luck!
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