GabiDahdouh

USOIL warned you about it 2 weeks ago

Short
TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)

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On August 5th I posted about a reversal in the USOIL market, and I've set different Scenarios on how the market is most likely to move.
Today we see the result of that analysis, everything I said would happen happened where the market went near the support levels and bounced back and then down again to breakout the support level and continue moving down.



Now let us talk about what is going to happen with the USOIL market, In the last 2 weeks the USOIL had a big bearish movement as the price dropped more than 14%,
it dropped from 73.36 and today it's trading around 62.99.
It's a big Bearish movement that we had clear signs that it was gonna happen from divergences, Support & Resistance levels, and Candlestick pattern.

in the next period of time we have 2 scenarios of how the market price could be moving :

Scenario 1 :

The market price is now trending near the Support zone from 62.62 - 61.56 by reaching that area we gonna witness a battle between the Bears and the Bulls over control over the market, If the Bears were able to hold control then the price will breakout that zone and will be now on its way to hit the support line at 60.45.

Scenario 2 :

The market price is trending near the Support zone from 62.62 - 61.56, The Bulls will have the chance to show power over the Bears, they will need to gain control over the market and make the price bounce back up, if the Bulls were able to do that then the price will bounce from that support zone and will be headed near the first resistance line at 64.75 where the bulls will have to test the Bears power for any hope to bring the price back up.

Technical indicators showing :

1) The market price is below the 5 10 20 50 100 MA and EMA but still above the 200 MA & EMA . That means that the Moving Averages are giving a strong sell signal.
2) Stoch reached the oversold zone, with a negative crossover between %K (3.90) and %D (4.88)
3) The MACD is under the zero line showing that the market is still in a Bearish state, with a negative crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.

Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 62.62 1) 64.75
2) 61.56 2) 66.10
3) 60.45 3) 69.48

Fundamental point of view :

Oil prices steadied on Friday, clambering away from three-month lows, but they were still on track for a weekly loss of more than 5% as new lockdowns in countries facing surging cases of the COVID-19 Delta variant dampened the outlook for fuel demand.
Broader investor risk aversion also weighed on oil with the U.S. dollar jumping to a nine-month high on signs the U.S. Federal Reserve is considering reducing stimulus this year.

"The spread of the Delta variant amid moderating economic growth and the prospects of tighter monetary policy are creating short-term ripples in the commodity market," ANZ commodity analysts said in a note.
"Increasing restrictions on mobility are raising concerns for oil demand." According to Reuters

This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!

Thank you for reading.