as my previous posts and DXY prediction and H&S pattern made ,some more upside move is probable
please keep an eye on the neckline and also on DXY to know how this commodity will behave against dollar fluctuations.
please see my previous analysis as below
There is plenty of uncertainty in oil markets at the moment, particularly regarding the timing of China's demand recovery as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy. Despite that uncertainty, oil prices have been buoyed by promising US inflation data, with consumer prices falling for the first time in more than two and a half years. WTI is now flirting with the $80 per barrel threshold again while Brent is nearing $85.
please keep an eye on the neckline and also on DXY to know how this commodity will behave against dollar fluctuations.
please see my previous analysis as below
There is plenty of uncertainty in oil markets at the moment, particularly regarding the timing of China's demand recovery as it moves away from its zero-Covid policy. Despite that uncertainty, oil prices have been buoyed by promising US inflation data, with consumer prices falling for the first time in more than two and a half years. WTI is now flirting with the $80 per barrel threshold again while Brent is nearing $85.
Comment:
fibo level seen on the chart is drawn based on Fibonacci Pinball method first introduced by by Avi Gilburt
as he told :"The Market Pinball Wizard takes Elliot Wave Theory to the next level. In a nutshell, it’s a smarter way to invest because instead of following the herd, I rely on a mix of sentiment and proven mathematical analysis. I started with the traditional structure of Elliott Wave, then added what I call a Fibonacci Pinball method to provide a stronger framework."
as he told :"The Market Pinball Wizard takes Elliot Wave Theory to the next level. In a nutshell, it’s a smarter way to invest because instead of following the herd, I rely on a mix of sentiment and proven mathematical analysis. I started with the traditional structure of Elliott Wave, then added what I call a Fibonacci Pinball method to provide a stronger framework."
Comment:
An OPEC+ panel endorsed the oil producer group’s current output policy at a meeting on Wednesday, leaving production cuts agreed last year in place amid hopes of higher Chinese demand and uncertain prospects for Russian supply.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar fell after traders saw a dovish takeaway from Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement of progress in the ‘disinflationary process’ and that he is not worried about loosening financial conditions. A weaker dollar tends to drive up foreign demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.
Finally, oil prices plunged after U.S. government data showed big builds in crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar fell after traders saw a dovish takeaway from Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement of progress in the ‘disinflationary process’ and that he is not worried about loosening financial conditions. A weaker dollar tends to drive up foreign demand for the dollar-denominated commodity.
Finally, oil prices plunged after U.S. government data showed big builds in crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories.
Comment:
U.S. Dollar Index tested session lows after Powell’s comments. Traders bet that inflation will decline significantly in 2023, so the Fed will have an opportunity to cut rates. Powell said that such a decision would be data-dependent, so he did not rule out a rate cut in 2023.
Key Insights
Powell noted that disinflationary process had begun.
Fed will not change its inflation target.
The decision on any potential rate cuts in 2023 will depend on economic data.
Key Insights
Powell noted that disinflationary process had begun.
Fed will not change its inflation target.
The decision on any potential rate cuts in 2023 will depend on economic data.
Comment:
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower.
A trade through $72.64 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $82.69 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is up. It changed to up when buyers took out the last swing bottom at $78.28 on Wednesday. This shifted momentum to the upside.
The minor range is $82.89 to $72.64. The market is trading on the strong side of its pivot at $77.77, making it support.
On the upside, the nearest resistance is a retracement zone at $79.76 – $81.85. On the downside, minor support is another pivot at $75.84.
A trade through $72.64 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $82.69 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is up. It changed to up when buyers took out the last swing bottom at $78.28 on Wednesday. This shifted momentum to the upside.
The minor range is $82.89 to $72.64. The market is trading on the strong side of its pivot at $77.77, making it support.
On the upside, the nearest resistance is a retracement zone at $79.76 – $81.85. On the downside, minor support is another pivot at $75.84.
Comment:
Over the long-term, WTI and Brent crude oil prices are expected to be supported by speculators betting on China’s demand recovery and limited supply growth due to a lack of investment. This assessment is being supported by OPEC country officials, according to Reuters.
However, over the near-term the rally is going to go through series of stops and starts due to uncertainty over Fed interest rate hikes. The central bank is nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle, but traders are now pricing in potential rate hikes out to June. This may not change the trend to down, but it could produce headwinds, which limit the markets’ upside potential.
However, over the near-term the rally is going to go through series of stops and starts due to uncertainty over Fed interest rate hikes. The central bank is nearing the end of its interest rate hiking cycle, but traders are now pricing in potential rate hikes out to June. This may not change the trend to down, but it could produce headwinds, which limit the markets’ upside potential.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $80.23 will indicate the presence of sellers. Taking out $80.50 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could create the momentum needed to challenge a pair of 50% levels at $77.18 and $76.09.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $80.23 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out $81.62 will change the main trend to up. This could trigger a surge into the Fibonacci level at $82.51, followed by another main top at $83.14.