WTI is about to approach the upper band of the downward channel. Based on the 4hr chart this is a significant level. Within the last weeks price failed already several times and corrected even further after those attempts.
The EMAs are trying to get in order, which means the lowest (8) on top and the highest (144 /200MA) below all others. Based on this we are still in a bearish control zone, as well as based on the general trend of WTI. This is important to keep in mind, that the general trend is important especially if building a counter trend idea, as it bears a significantly higher risk. Nevertheless, lower EMAs already crossed to the upside (see chart). The stochastic indicator is also in a bearish zone (below 50), but has a upward cross of %k over the moving average.
Daily chart we have a upward cross of the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, with a stochastic above 70. Both are bullish indicators for a near future. On the daily the fight for the 200 MA is already on for about a week. While I am writing these lines we price is slightly above it.
A breakout out of this channel should be at least have one confirmation on the daily and several on the 4hr chart, combined with a more bullish stoch indicator this could be nice entry for a counter trend Long. Let us see how price reacts on the opening of the US markets.
As always, wait for confirmation! It is a game of probabilities and not certainties, everything is possible in the end.
The EMAs are trying to get in order, which means the lowest (8) on top and the highest (144 /200MA) below all others. Based on this we are still in a bearish control zone, as well as based on the general trend of WTI. This is important to keep in mind, that the general trend is important especially if building a counter trend idea, as it bears a significantly higher risk. Nevertheless, lower EMAs already crossed to the upside (see chart). The stochastic indicator is also in a bearish zone (below 50), but has a upward cross of %k over the moving average.
Daily chart we have a upward cross of the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, with a stochastic above 70. Both are bullish indicators for a near future. On the daily the fight for the 200 MA is already on for about a week. While I am writing these lines we price is slightly above it.
A breakout out of this channel should be at least have one confirmation on the daily and several on the 4hr chart, combined with a more bullish stoch indicator this could be nice entry for a counter trend Long. Let us see how price reacts on the opening of the US markets.
As always, wait for confirmation! It is a game of probabilities and not certainties, everything is possible in the end.
Comment:
And there we have the drop. Bears took their chance and went down close to median channel with the latest wick. Expecting some up and down between median and horizontal support around around $54.50
With the dynamic support broken based on the EMAs bears have a free passage down to the median line of the channel, probably with a stop over around the horizontal support around $54.50.
Although signs stand for a further correction, never ever underestimate the waywardness of crude. Also there is the Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole, where many expect Powell to suggest rate cuts, which can be stimulus for the economy and therefore oil as well. Maybe thes assumptions are already price into the market. I'll keep a close eye on this and once we leave the channel to the upside, take the 200 MA or lose the median line consider a trade to either side.
I will keep you updated about my findings on WTI.