thefrenchsniper

Double position on OIL

TVC:USOIL   CFDs on WTI Crude Oil
Nov 10

WTI crude has fallen sharply recently as US crude inventories have risen more than expected.

= Lots of oil => falling prices



Fresh Covid outbreaks in China, the main importer of crude, have raised fears that the Chinese government will stick to the zero-Covid policy, dashing hopes for a gradual economic reopening and a rebound in oil demand. energy.

= Restrictive measures => economic slowdown => fall in oil demand => fall in prices



Uncertainty about China's outlook has added to fears that an aggressive tightening campaign by central banks in advanced economies could push the world into a recession.

= Increase in rates (west) => increase in currencies => fall in production



Nov 11

China has reduced the time new arrivals to the country and close contacts of infected people must spend in quarantine. The country has relaxed a total of 20 of its Covid-19 rules, although its zero Covid policy which has disrupted its economy and lowered demand for oil remains in place.

= Reduction of Chinese coercive measures => increase in global demand => rise in prices



According to the FedWatch tool, interest rate futures markets have now priced an 81% chance of a 50 basis point hike in December. The Fed has already raised rates by 375 bps since March.

= strong chance that the dollar will appreciate following the rate hike next month



Nov 13

Mozambique has officially started exporting liquefied natural gas amid an energy crisis in Europe sparked by Russia's war in Ukraine, President Filipe Nyusi announced on Sunday.

= possible increase in the production of Nat Gas

Nov 14

China's Russian oil purchases are 'completely consistent' with Western countries' plans to keep Russian crude on the global market

Beijing will benefit from the new price cap mechanism to be imposed in December, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday.

Ms Yellen told reporters that China and other buyers of Russian oil will have more leverage to negotiate lower prices.

"We see the price cap is something that benefits China, India and all buyers of Russian oil," Yellen said.

= attempt to limit the increase in the price of crude oil

The Tokyo Stock Exchange started down, landing after a euphoric session at the end of last week thanks to the sharp slowdown in US inflation in October, which could lead to less aggressive monetary tightening in the future in the United States.

= slowing rate increase



Shares of some of Australia's biggest mining stocks surged on Monday on hopes of improving demand for commodities after China reported an easing of pandemic restrictions and a reversal of its clampdown on the real estate sector.

Shares of BHP Group Ltd., the world's largest miner by market value and a major producer of iron ore and metallurgical coal, have recently risen.

Likewise for rival Rio Tinto Ltd.

= optimism about the Chinese economy, growing energy companies

1. We identify economic cycles marking the alternation of growth and decline phases of the market.

2. Smoothed MA acting as a support for then the rebound on the Fib 0.5 extension.

3. Eliott's Corrective Waves started (Wave C missing)

4. High bearish volume between $88 and $86.

5. Fibo 0.38 could initiate an upward price rebound

6. Double top initiated in H1