4xForecaster

Anatomy Of A (limited) Retracement | $WTI #crude #oil $USOil

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
14581 90 128
SYNOPSIS:

PRICE ANALYSIS:
1 - Dominant trend remains bearish in DAILY chart - See larger scale analysis here: http://bit.ly/1n5q3Wj
2 - This 4-HOUR chart highlights circumstantial technical evidence of an interim rally:
-- First bullish failure sets price into a descending series of 0.386-Fibonacci retracements
-- Last retracement represents a higher-order of Fibonacci level, implying nascent bulls overcoming bears
3 - A larger retracement is expected to occur up to 42.57, or approximating 0.618-Fib of the overall decline:

RSI ANALYSIS:
1 - A series of negative divergences (not bearish divergence) heralded a high-probability decline
-- A negative divergence occurs where RSI carves a higher-high against a lower lower or double-top in price - Expect a significant decline once this high-probability event occurs (higher prob than bearish divergences)
-- Each negative divergences occurred with a single penetration of the 70-Line - Bears are pressing against bulls
-- The most recent RSI illustrates a double 70-Line validation - Bulls are pressing against bears.

USOil             - DAILY Chart:
snapshot



USOil             - 4-HOUR Chart:
snapshot



Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
Linked-In: David Alcindor
TradingView: 4xForecaster
-----

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Comment: 01 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price remains tethered to dashed line as forecast ... Expect the following range to impose first support, then resistance:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 02 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As forecast, price continues its retracement to pre-defined range. Expect significant support at that level, and a bullish reprise to the resistance range also pre-defined this week:
snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: ADDENDUM ... Tech-Note: Volume

In terms of volume, look for decline representing bearish fatigue, followed by a volume SPIKE to indicate a bottom ("Stopping Volume"), then an increase in volume representing the aforementioned bullish reprise.

snapshot


Whereas this volume behavior is not a condition for reversal signal, it would help provide a technical clue to the expected price action.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 02 FEB 2016 - Tech-Note:

Looking purely at the relative strength between the $UKOil versus the $USOil, it becomes evident in the #brent/#crude chart that $Brent has a relative advance against the US counter-part.

snapshot


What I would look at is the historical tendencies of the $UKOil to lead $USOil, and the consequent elasticity that has tended to bring the laggard to parity with its leader.

In terms of individual chart, I am still expecting a retracement to the UP-side in the #crude, such that its value "catches up" with that of the leading #brent.

However, in the net analysis, the forecast remains intact and in force, with $USOil aiming for 21.02, as per last year's forecast.

Best,


David Alcindor

PS: Here is the link to the original UKOil vs. USOil chart - Click to link:
$Brent vs. $WTI Nears Top | $UKOil $USOil #oil #crudeoil #wtic


- David
Comment: 05 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this potential ab = cd reciprocal symmetry:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 09 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this reciprocal ab = cd symmetry completion, as it nears a concomitant double bottom :
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 16 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this probable support range (PINK arrow) as price continues to oscillate around the 27.53 support:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 16 FEB 2016 - News:

- WAJ: Not Even a Wave of Oil Bankruptcies Will Shrink Crude Production http://on.wsj.com/1Ls8tRY via @WSJMoneyBeat

David
Comment: 22 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:

As forecast, price has rallied from its projected base, now carving higher-highs towards the bullish H4 target:
snapshot

(Source: http://bit.ly/1P4yLv7 )

As mentioned in the original analysis, this bullish target represent a high-probability retracement, pending a bearish target which remains unanswered in the DAILY timeframe:
snapshot

(Source: http://bit.ly/1n5q3Wj )


Also noted in the analysis is the elastic correlation between the $UKOil and the $USOil, wherein the latter is expected to "catch up" with the former, in a manner that should reduce their differential - In effect, the following chart is thus expected to decline to the level forecast:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 25 FEB 2016 - Chart Update:

As price continues to rally from its defined base, watch for 33.57 as a significant structural/resistance level, which if breached, would likely signal a bullish resumption:
snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: 05 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Retracement continues to unfold to the upside, as forecast, with price nearing the first of three expected Fibonacci levels ... 42.57 residing slightly above 0.618 remains a pending structural target:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 17 MAR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to hit the Fibonacci levels and inches closer to the structural 42.57 target:
snapshot


Expect significant time-consumptive consolidation as this level nears.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 17 MAR 2016 - Addendum:

The UKOil vs. USOil relative strength MONTHLY chart remains intent on its 0.92 target:
snapshot


This suggests that as the $USOil (posted just a few minutes ago) gains ground towards its target, it is also gaining strength against its $UKOil acolyte, expressed in this current chart.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 17 MAR 2016 - Addendum #2:

Just as important, this DAILY chart provides a larger granular detail of the 4-hour chart just posted, with an Elliott Wave development which suggests that the Predictive/Forecasting Model's target defined now over a year ago on February 04th, 2015 as 21.02, remains a high-probability event:
snapshot


Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 02 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Looking at the $UKOil versus $USOil relative strength, the parity line (whereby UKOil = USOil) was reached, and price immediately rallied from thereon.

This is the FIRST parity hit. As you may recall, the UKOil has been a relatively good "feeler" for directional bias, such that as it remains above the value of USOil, it suggests that USOil has yet to rally.

Now that the parily value has been reached, we are to consider the possibility of a reversal, which is occurring in the vicinity of the 0.618-Fibonacci level, which has been hit, whereas the 42.57 remains a PROBABLE target at this time.

Best,


David Alcindor

PS: I am developing a course aimed for experienced traders, so I will need to look at your prior charts, analysis and performance before taking you on - Space is limited to 12 traders per year, as I will aim to provide day-to-day targets before public release, personal trade review, personal coaching and teaching of proprietary patterns and methods (AFT, EAGLE, personal RSI systems, proprietary pattern - Janus, Great White - Price/Volume Analysis).
Comment: Here is the associated chart#1:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Comment: ... And the Relative Strength ("RS") chart between $UKOil and $USOil:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 14 APR 2016 - Chart update / Tech-Note:

As per forecast, price has carved higher highs, surpassing the technical 0.618-Fib level, and now consolidating near the 42.57 forecast level - This target remains pending, in force and likely to play out a reversal:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: 21 APR 2016 - Chart Update: Target Hit; Imminent reversal

Interim, short-term target at 42.57 has finally been hit. Now, expect market to enter a consolidating pattern with high-probability reversal at the 43.57/44.75 range:

snapshot


For those learning about the GEO construction, see how price is winding around the 2-4-Line transposed off of Point-3 to define Point-5' )called point five prime).

David Alcindor
Comment: 24 APR 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Overall, the relative strength between $UKOil and $USOil remains above the parity line, which means that #Brent continues to lead in value over that of $WTI:
snapshot


However, what the smaller 4-Hour timeframe suggests is a probable reversal at the 42.57/44.75 range:
snapshot


Hence, look specifically for a move underneath the PARITY line as a probable indication that $WTI is taking over the lead, reversing the relative strength to fractional values.

What the Predictive/Forecasting Model forecasts is a 0.92 attainment, whereas the same Model forecasts 21.02 $USOil value, defined last February 2015, over a year ago.

Best,


David Alcindor
Comment: 05 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for bear entrenchment at 50.90 - A double-top and symmetrical ab = cd reciprocity awaits there:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

PS-1: I now offer a private course to advanced technical traders - Only 1-2 students per month, since this is an open-ended course in which I reveal all proprietary patterns and methods, including the "secret" method I have been using to predict and forecast all and any financial markets - If interested, take a look at the generic course outline (each course is tailored to the student, based on proficiency level) here: http://bit.ly/1U0tIka - David

PS-2: For those living in the US, I am considering a one-time one-on-one day-long course in person if this is at all possible in our mutual schedule - The student is welcome to travel to my home in Durango, Colorado, Colorado, or I would consider traveling to student home or workplace, just to get myself out of the mountain - David
Comment: 08 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Pattern completion: Kiss of Death

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 08 JUN 2016 - Addendum:

Watch for this structural support from expected reactive decline as price completes this BEARISH Kiss of Death pattern:

snapshot


Best,

David
Comment: 08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-2:

Predictive/Forecasting Model's target at 21.02 defined on February 2015 remain intact and in force:

snapshot


Best,

David
Comment: 08 JUN 2016 - Addendum-3:

Crude Oil ETF ($W11!) - Daily Chart:

snapshot


Here, expect a limited reactive rally from 29.350, up to 41.175, and a probable resumption of bearish trend down to 16.325.

Regards,

David
Comment: 08 JUN 2016 - Chart update:

Hit Target in M15 chart (announced this morning on Twitter):

snapshot


Expect bearish entrenchment at this highlighted level.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 09 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

M15 may provide an early bearish tack indication ... Best is to wait for breach of pattern base at Pt-A:

snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

As forecast, price continues to roll from top-reversal target:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 10 JUN 2016 - Addendum:

Most proximal target is geometric - Other targets from Model are more bearish.

snapshot


Best,

David
Comment: 10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Most immediate target remains geometric:

snapshot



ST target is structural:

snapshot



LT target remains 21.02, defined last FEB 2015:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 10 JUN 2016 - Chart Update: Target HIT:

... 2 more to go:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 13 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Reactive bulls to recent onslaught remain able to push back price to 0.61-Fib = 50.30 - A rally to 52.18 is possible, but less probable:

snapshot


Overall, bears remain in control, with a LT target still unanswered at 21.02, as per forecast defined nearly 1.5 year ago.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 14 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

This #oil market remains in the grips of bear and refused to give bull time to regain some air at the surface - Moving on up to the larger timeframe:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

This is an adjustment to last estimated retracement forecast ... Price remains under bearish influence, and an interim rally to the 50.013 vicinity is probable:

snapshot


Overall, bears remain in charge, with LT target still eyed at 21.02, as defined at the beginning of last year (FEB 201).

Best,


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 15 JUN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

M15 level forecast expects a slight rally to a limited upside, but higher-timeframe bears remain the dominant forces - A Model's anticipated weak support exists at 46.47, whereas subsequent rally is expected to be shallower in the 38.6-Fib retracement level, corresponding to a structural resistance:

snapshot


As per long-term forecast, 21.02 remains unanswered, representing the probable target for the time being, best appreciated in the Weekly frame - Predictive analyses and forecast at smaller time frames remain increasingly unreliable:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Happy FIRST day of summer!

As we depart from the M15 timeframe, following is the H1 with a dashed pathway of a probable price action, as bears continue to dominate the field:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 21 JUN 2016 - Chart Update:

Look for probable exhaustion moves in the 51.01 vicinity:

$TSLA Forecast Hit ALL FEB 2015 Targets: Moving On Up To Weekly Chart:

http://bit.ly/1Iee0fm

#tsla #TeslaMotors

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affilaite #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 07 JUL 2016 - Tech-Note:

Watch for $USOil decline - Just released a signal where price was expected to turn ... It now did, and we expect a significant decline to 30.58.IF price BACA < 45.82, then expect the following sequence:

1 - Significant fall to 38.63;

2 - Bullish reaction pushing back to about 43.40 (not likely higher than structural support-turned-resistance level of 45.82;

3 - Then a resumption to the 30.58 level.This sequence is generated off of the Predictive/Forecasting Model:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, Alias: 4xForecaster
Comment: 07 JUL 2016 - ADDENDUM:

Re: $USOil ... As a general recap:

Price has remained true to forecast, first as hitting and reversing from the extremely narrow target range of 51.58/51.70 I had provided, and then remaining subdued under that level, as further forecast:
snapshot


Most recently, I forecast a slight reactive rally before another head-strong decline, which is just what occurred this morning:
snapshot


OVERALL:

As forecast way back in February 2015 (now over 1.5 years ago), the 21.02 target remains intact and in force.

Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
Comment: 25 JUL 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price cedes to 45.82 level as forecast. Bearish momentum carries on as per predictive analysis:

snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 28 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:

snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 01 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

42.22 consumed ... 36.63 next as per forecast:
snapshot


Longer-term forecast remains intact and in force as well, with 21.02 as target, defined last year:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
- Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
Comment: 02 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to fall, carving lower-lows as per forecast. There is a market-wide expectation of an inverted Head-and-Shoulder pattern formation. Watch for incursion below 37.73 as decreasing probability of such pattern formation - 30.58 remains the next probable level of attainement:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 03 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

... Shoulders chopped and heads rolling?

Don't get faked out: A push-back from the next target level at 38.63 may rally to 45.82 and resume its primary bearish tack.
snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 08 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price rallies as per dashed line forecast; Look for resistance near 45.82:
snapshot


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 11 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 12 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for this reciprocal ab=cd symmetry developing towards limited bullish target:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 15 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price completes the reciprocal ab=cd symmetry, nears 45.82 target:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 22 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

Price remains tethered to dashed forecast line. Now rolls from 48.55/48.73 range defined defined this past 18 AUG 2016 in Twitter:
snapshot


Long-term target remains bearish as seen in WEEKLY chart, where a 1.5 year old target remains intact and in force:
snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Comment: 28 AUG 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As a correlative analysis, looking at the $XLE, here is a potential risk pathway:
snapshot


Critical levels are illustrated perstill-speculative inverted H&S levels - Regardless, this remains a net-bearish proposition.

Returning to the $USOil-60-Min. chart, one can expect the most immediate target to remain relevant, especially in the $XLE risk narrative where a decline to a lower-low defining the second inverted shoulder would remain consistent with the short-term bear.

Overall, large vascillations in $USOil may result if $XLE pathway comes true.

Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, StockTwits, LinkedIn, TradingView)
Comment: 28 AUG 2016 - ADDENDUM:

For an alternate, moderate forecast, consider the following chart, in which 81.81 aligns 0.618-Fib along a pertinent R/S level:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GDDBBRPi/l

Again, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains net-bearish in the long-term as far as $USOil is concerned, despite a possible interim short-term correction in the broader energy asset class represented by this $XLE chart.

Best,

David Alcindor
Comment: Here is the correct URL:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/L3rRNjAi/

David
Comment: 01 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Again, price remains tethered to overall forecast trajectory - Current precipitous decline remains in line with short term forecast - See following 1-hour chart:
snapshot


... As well as long-term forecast:
snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
CROW Signal Service provider
CROW Code Instructor
Comment: 03 SEP 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Watch for these levels, as price is expected to carve lower-lows:
snapshot


Regards,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter)
CROW Signal Provider
CROW Code Instructor
Totally agree !!

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+1 Reply
Nice analysis. Combined fib and RSI indicator.
+1 Reply
Thanks for sharing but I guess $30 should be a stronger support level than the Fib retracement level at this moment. Lets see and good luck :)
+2 Reply
Many thanks for this analysis.
Good to see that there are more people that use negative divergences (or negative reversals as I call them). I've been studying this way of using the RSI a bit. I thought that once the RSI becomes overbought a negative divergence/reversal loses its validity. Although in this case they obviously worked very well anyway. Do you also use them for price projection?
+1 Reply
Hello @plok - Glad you do too. Yes, price projection is also another use I have for these as well - David
+1 Reply
tradez 4xForecaster
good job! oil went down today.
+1 Reply
@tradez - Yes, expect upcoming price action to find support and then resistance at range defined in the following chart:
snapshot


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
tradez 4xForecaster
Does this mean this is the bottom for oil? How did you come to this conclusion?
+1 Reply
@tradez - Not quite bottom yet ... Price is likely to find support at range illustrated below:
snapshot


David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
Expected support range = 29.14/28.37

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
David,

Good call!

What do you think Dan's idea that oil is forming a minor wave (iv) right now, and a (v) is coming to complete the slide @ $25? Here is the link:
OIL - CLOSE TO FORMING SIGNIFICANT LOW


Al
+1 Reply
Hello @coolingla - Wave experts on the famous http://www.ElliottWave.com site are calling a near completion of the 4th wave, and a target to $25.00.

This is the trend and target that other traders happen to display on their charts. Turns out that most of the Linked-In, Twitter and Facebook and TradingView traders obtain their lessons or directional opinions from the same source (ww.ElliottWave.com), as I have seen this pattern reiterated here and there, just as that site released it.

Since this site is free, I recommend any serious trader to drink from the expert source. Anything else is second-hand mastication ... No disrespect to any EW traders or prognosticians, but they too had to learn directly from that site or from someone edified from that site.

My 2-cent opinion here is to read:

1 - Elliott Wave from Robert Prechter
2 - Intermarket analyses from Mr. Ashraf Laidi and Mr. Eswar Prasad
3 - Demographic-based forecasts from Mr. Harry S. Dent

Look their name up in Amazon.com for good reads, or their names in Twitter for more information and daily streams of quite edifying information.

Again, no disrespect to anyone on this site, but raised hats and due credit go to the authors of these technical tools.

Best,


David Alcindor
+5 Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
That's a lot of info, thanks David. I already have a copy of Prechter's book. I read it many times but can't seem to master EW regardless. EW seems to be too subjective. Still, I had some minor success combining EW with MACD. I like Harmonic patterns better.

Back to USOIL, forgive me for being slow but I still got a little confused. So basically you don't agree with that $25 price target from EW analysis, correct? Based on your analysis, USOIL should first go up to $42 and then back down to $21 right? If $21 is reached, then I can imagine the whole market will be in hell.

Appreciate your further input.

Al
+1 Reply
Hello @coolingla - Yes, price is expected to find support as shown in recent analyses and rally to about 40+ (Look for the confluence of structures, Fib and drawn range).

EW is by no means subjective. However, those who make a habit of interpreting it on their own (such as myself), will tend to confuse others. So, it is best to check with the source FIRST and foremost, and to kindly include the reference of authors if shared publicly.

I have depended on the wave analyses for quite some time, and have become adept at it, but by no means no versed enough to go on my own without some eyeballs from the http://www.ElliottWave.com site ... I recommend that you follow heir analyses on a daily basis, either by drawing your own conclusion and then checking on theirs, or simply by going through the tedious steps of letting it sink.

You will soon discover that there is no subjective data, but only misinterpretations. It is a very difficult language to acquire at first, until it starts "speaking" to you visually.

I can definitely recommend Constance ("Connie") Brown's own book on the matter, which tends to simplify the task a bit, althgough her market geometry overlays may look intimidating at first.

Please, let me know how I can help you guide through this literary jungle. I would probably tend to refer you to the authors as sources, but if you have any particular queries about technical analyses, books or what not, feel free to ask.

Best,


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
I really appreciate your generosity in sharing! Tradingview is great only because of guys like you.

Respectfully,
Al
Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
David,

I just realized you might be confused by my saying "Dan's idea that oil is forming a minor wave (iv) right now, and a (v) is coming to complete the slide @ $25?".

To be clear, his (iv) and (v) are minor wave within wave 5. Essentially, you guys have the same wave count, just a little bit different on price target. Since I respect Dan a lot, I felt compelled to clear this up.

+2 Reply
@coolingla - Yes, Dan and other EW traders have the same detailed wave count as the one that was originally released by the author's site. I have no doubt that Dan counts as many well-versed wave counter out there, and that man of them are right in their interpretation. I am simply stating that the analysis was released by that site, and verification of the proper wave count is best done against that site, as a matter of due diligence, and not as a matter of casting doubt on anyone.

It is tantamount to setting your clock against a universal reference site. Again, no disrespect. I rely on precise wave counts, precise targets and precise forecasting, all of which depend on sources I use as constant references (i.e.: EW site for wave count and my Model for target and forecasting ... Any other attempt at delivering my analyses would simply be too random and risky an exercise).

David Alcindor
+3 Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
Got you.

Again congratulations to your precise count. It's amazing your $21 target seems all the more likely after a full year!
+1 Reply
@coolingla - Thank you.

Once you accept that time is irrelevant to market geometries, then forecasting becomes a clearer path and the target a more promising home.

D.
+4 Reply
hovedguy 4xForecaster
Looks like we are on the same page :)

snapshot
+1 Reply
Great analysis. What do you think about Brent?
Thanx
Reply
Hi David... I'm amazed with your genius analysis and your generosity. sorry for my question, but just wandering, will you provide signal service? if yes, how to contact you?
+1 Reply
Hello @ccake28 - Thank you for your kind compliments. I do not plan on developing any service, unless TradingView had such a signaling service, then perhaps I would use that and share - I might develop a small group to coach, teach and consult traders in the near future, but this would have to be a paid activity that I can ensure constant contact over the year, so it would have to be a limited group of dedicated traders. Still thinking about it.

Thank you.

David
+1 Reply
ccake28 4xForecaster
Hi David. Yes, I mean a paid service. May I have your contact (email or Skype, etc) to explore any possibility? or you can skype me @ccake28. Thanks
+1 Reply
I will probably find a site where I can manage discussions and provide live interactive lessons, coaching and signals. This is an announcement I would make on TradingView, though.
Reply
ewpnx1 PRO 4xForecaster
Hello @4xForecaster , Please let me know when you finalize any plans. It would be a really great to learn the way you see markets. Thanks a lot for being around.
+1 Reply
Thank you, @ ewpnx1 - Will do.

David
Reply
David,

It seems more and more likely to me that this is the final wave (v) of 5 push down. There isn't gonna be another (iv) of 5 up to $35-40 and then a (v) of 5 down to $21-$25.

I suspected this is the case all along as the sell off from 6/23/2015 to 8/24/2015 was so fast and powerful that only a (iii) of 5 could explain it.

What do you think?

+1 Reply
Hello @coolingla - Do you have a chart to go along with your description ... I am a 100% visual person, and I need that visual support to follow what you are mentioning ... Please, feel free to post your chart.

David
Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
David,

Here is my first ever Tradingview chart. My question is on there too :-)

USOIL Wave Count Since 2009
+2 Reply
Hello @coolingla - First, congratulation for posting your first chart. I am also very honored this is occurring on this thread. Takes a lot of thinking to bring your thoughts on a chart, and a lot of courage for sharing it publicly, so again thank you!

Looking strictly at the plots you have in your chart, a Geo will tend to have an internal inflection, which is defined in your chart by the circled iii-iv leg. This leg is typically a geometric center for the actual 2-3 Leg of the Geo. So, if a Geo is indeed forming, your circle v would have to become Point-3 of that Geo.

In fact, as drawn, the preceding circled v and following circled v on either sides of your cicled iii would be Point-1 and Point-3, respectively.

Ultimately, this would place Point-5 in the vicinity of the target, namely near 21.02.

Is this making sense?

David
+2 Reply
coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks for the encouragement David!

A few questions:

1. Geo mean Geometric Structures?
2. Still don't understand this sentence "In fact, as drawn, the preceding circled v ... of your cicled iii would be Point-1 ..., respectively."
3. If we got a pop to $40-42 before the final leg down, then this $40-42 circled vi would overlap with circled i (my circled iii on the chart), but is that allowed in EW theory?

BTW, if you offer a class, I will definitely take it.

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@coolingla - Let me answer your questions sequentially:

1 - The Geo refers to a specific pattern, which I have shared on TradingView. If there are terms you are not too sure about, feel free to Google my alias: 4xForecaster followed by the term you are looking for.

2 - In your chart, one of the lower point you drew is named "iii" within a circle. The one to its left is named v within a circle, and the one to its right is named v within a circle. If a Geo was to develop, the v to the left would be Point-1 of the Geo, whereas the one to the right would be Point-3 of the Geo.

3 - Yes, overlaps are allowed within Elliott Wave Principle, as long as it is occurring at the fourth wave of an impulse, which is what is occurring here. Whereas in any other times, wave-iv is not allowed to penetrate the territory of wave-1, in this case, it is perfectly allowed. This is a triangle geometry that one should seek when counting waves.

Yes, I might start asking questions as to what people are needing to be covered as technical topics. I do things a bit differently, so a solid knowledge of conventional technical analysis would be recommended, so that one may appreciate the more precise ways I predict the trends and forecast targets.

Thank you for raising all these important questions.

Best,

David
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coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
David, I really appreciate your help. I will spend some time reading your past postings.

I know I need these areas covered: a big picture overview of technical analysis, the relationship between the various techniques used and lastly how to balance technical analysis with fundamental analysis (I am much more of a value investor than a trader. However, I found fundamental analysis only approach is frequently inadequate).

.

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@coolingla - I am very glad you are able to make the distinction between fundamental and technical analysis. I am a pure technician. However, when it comes to Forex, I still find great value in following market-moving events, such as central bank rates, as well as keeping tab on correlations between Forex, commodities, rate diffentials - I always recommend traders and investors alike to read Ashraf Laidi's as well as Eswar Prasad books on intermarket analysis.

It will not matter to understand all of these topics all at once. What matter is to get a basic sense of correlation. Once one realizes that it has greater value than any of the superfluous price-massaging news, curiosity for more defensive knowledge will prevail.

David
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Why 33.57? and why not 34.82 (January 2016)
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Hello @Codefox - Thank you for this great technical question.

In essence, you are witnessing a perfect technical Fibonacci versus a structural event.

The 33.57 represents a structural higher-high failure followed by a structural lower-low, so the resistance is expected to be the strongest at that particular level. In contrast, at 34.82, a technical event occurred as a signal for imminent reversal (highlighted in GREEN 0.618-Fib). However, the technical Fibonacci level is distinct and separate from the structural event.

Also, if you look at the price attempt at breaking above 33.57, a second failure occurred again on February 22nd.

Is this making sense?

Best,

David
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Codefox 4xForecaster
thank you for your answer! I understand what you mean but what do you think about that
snapshot
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Hello @Codefox - I base my trades on probability levels. Bullish Divergences are not as consistent as Positive Divergences, so not a signal I ever use.

David
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Codefox 4xForecaster
ok thank you!
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Thanks for your timely updates and reminder of the larger picture. For now, have a great weekend!
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If you look at the daily you posted. The RSI on the previous local top is higher, than the RSI now, and the price of Oil is higher -> Divergence. Something tells me that this is a higher probability of a being a good candidate of exiting on the coming local top (for short term traders)
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Hello 2use - I am not sure which timeframe you are referring to, and what "local" means, considering that the RSI is a ranging (amplitude and longitude) indicator. Feel free to post the chart you are using to point to the area you are referring to.

David
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Hi David. Oil price was very close to your target, however it has reversed before reaching $42.57 target. So are you still expecting the price to reach $42.57 target or do you think the reversal has started? Thanks :)
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Hello @ccake28,

Price reached the 0.618-Fib mark. Whether it creeps up to the structure at 42.57 is not as important at this point Asti whether it signals a new reversal signal.

Yes, it could still hit that 42.57 mark with still high-probability, but a break below the recently formed structural low would be a good sign of possible (not as good as probable) reversibility.

Best,

David
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smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
Your analysis is amazing as always, thanks David, very inspiring! 
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
 
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smitheric1970 PRO smitheric1970
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ccake28 4xForecaster
Thanks so much David, your analysis is second to none as always.
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David,

Are you saying the recent USOIL top on 3/22 @ $41.87 looks more like the reversal point (which leads to your $21 prediction) now since the parity has been hit?

The Dollar looks like it's about to drop again one last time, maybe that will provide the possibility of USOIL touching $42.57?

Al
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Hello @coolingla - Thank you for this requesting this clarification - Sorry if I was not that clear ... What I meant was that the parity suggests in IMMINENT reversal in price, with $UKOil tending to lead, and now weakening, thus allowing $USOil to "catch up" with its value, and soon leading to the DOWN-side.

For the time being, I still see a probable target hit at 42.57 ... This is likely to occur when/once $UKOil value < $USOil, this causing the relative strength chart to point downward and pushing price down to the PARITY level and BELOW, towards the 0.92 RS value.

Is this answering your question?

David Alcindor
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coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
Yes, of course. Thanks.

But then that imminent USOIL catch up will most likely mean two things:

1. SPX will move even higher to 2100 area before its final break down to complete the ending diagonal 5
2. Dollar will drop again one last time

Is my logic right?

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Hi David, re your recent "postscript", you will be updating more once you completely developed the course, or for the moment you have opened the door for traders to nominate themselves, so that you will review their trade ideas for some time?
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4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - I can only take 12 traders at a time, based on my experience that it takes to coach, review trades and share the lessons on a group as well as a one-on-one basis. At this point, I am making a list of traders interested in the lessons, and I will select the traders based on their recent posted traders, comments, so that most of the traders are at a similar level of competency - David
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Hi David! Phenomenal forecasting as usual. Thank you for the update. I hope you are well. Kind regards Iefan
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Thank you @iefan - Keep a close eye on the $USoil and $GBPCAD correlation ... High-probability target in $GBP vs. $CAD rests at geometry's top, which corresponds to 0.386-Fib.

Please, feel free to share this free analysis within this and other community of traders.

Thank you for your kind compliments - Much appreciated.

David Alcindor
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Hello David, USOIL Broke Above and Closed Above 42.57. Does the price of oil hit 50.90 next or do we see price retracing to 33.57 from here?
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Whao mate, amazing outlook. Never seen this type analysis before. Thank you for sharing :)
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Thanks Man You are the best
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Hi David

In your last Comment you draw a 5 waves , but wave 4 may never end in the price territory of wave 1 , correct ?
Sorry for the question but this let me a little confused.
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Hello @Olla2314 - I am not sure which chart you are referring to.

HOWEVER, Elliott Wave Principle has exceptions to this rule, which occurs in certain ending geometries, such as the ending diagonal, in which Wave-4 is allowed to enter the territory of Wave-1 ... This typically would occur within the one-lesser degree of a 5th wave, or within the one-lesser degree of a C-Wave ending the A-B-C correction.

Here is a link to the Elliott Wave lesson itself:
https://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2013/01/28/Ending-Diagonal-A-Pattern-to-Send-Shivers-Down-the-Spine-of-Investors.aspx

Best,

David Alcindor
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Olla2314 4xForecaster
Thanks so much David for the clarification.
I appreciate it so much.
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Olla2314 Olla2314
Hi David

In your last comment on 21 April you draw a 5 waves path in a ending diagonal in a bull market so , if I understand correctly, you supposed a corrective wave to approx. 38$, Is this right ?
But could be correct also a view like this that seems to me in contrast with yours ? What's wrong in mine ?
Sorry for not using the correct label for the waves but I'm in a learning process.

I see this
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Hello Olla2314 - I am not sure what you are referring to in your chart. Feel free to provide a visible outline, as I see several plotted points, named A, B, a, b, c, and 1, 2, 3.

In any case, the geometry I offer is really tertiary to the forecast. The original forecast defined in February 2015 is a bearish point at 21.02, at a time when price was at about 60-70. In the interim, as price drove its way down there, a nadir was reached below the 30 handle. From that level, I offered an interim forecast, stating that it would likely reverse near the 42.57 level, and more recently offered a refinement of a 42.57 to 44.75 range.

The geometry I overlay in this and any other cases where a forecast is formulated by the Predictive/Forecasting Model is simply to offer a probable pathway that would outline the contours of the geometry. Some pattern traders might see a butterfly, a Bat or some other classic pattern, but this is really not what matters.

What matters is the value spewed out by the Model, which in this case is 42.57/44.75 range, which defines a high-probability reversal in the context of a larger timeframe in which the same Model called for a 21.02 target, which remains unanswered - See chart below:

$USOil - 4-Hour Chart:
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$USOil - DAILY chart:
snapshot



In other words, as the Model has no visible geometry by which to manifest, but only expresses itself via targets, the geometry I use are simply to offer a probable price pathway that would correspond to, and complies to the targets offered by the Model. If you perceive another way to express a geometry, it remains that the Model is the leading indicator of where price is likely to go, reach and reverse.

In this case, the 42.57/44.75 range is the interim level where a reversal is expected, whereas the 2102 level is the bearish targets that is awaiting, defined over a year ago.

In any case, I'd like to see what geometry you are referring ... Feel free to re-post with the outlines that bring up the shape you are referring to.

Best,

David Alcindor
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Olla2314 4xForecaster
Thanks David , clear explanation.
I will redrawing a better chart when I come back home next week.
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thedon80 4xForecaster
Hi David, do you still see a reversal or has it been invalidated? cheers Mark
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update please
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u saying its going back to 20s?
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This is a masterpiece!
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Much appreciated - David
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Yahia.Awes 4xForecaster
You are welcome!
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wonderful! weekly and daily calculations perfectly! with the order below completely agree.
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Hi David hope you are fine what is zoar view on the oil now
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4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
Hello manijeh.kazemi.33,

Unless the Predictive/Forecasting Model tells me otherwise, the LT trend remains bearish, and the original target defined over a year ago (04 FEB 2015) remains intact and in force, still eyeing 21.02.

The current chart grows into the anatomy of a bear, with internal "signs and symptoms" that favor a decline. The interim target I have provided, which got hit dead-on at 51.58/51.70 remains a solid handle, and the breach of which would require a revision of a short-term chart, but not necessarily contradict the long term bearish target of 21.02

snapshot


Is this answering our question?

Thank you for posting here.

Best,

David Alcindor
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manijeh.kazemi.33 4xForecaster
thank you for your analysis I Love it
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smitheric1970 PRO 4xForecaster
Wow, David, nice job! How did you know that it would fall right through the 42 level support structure?
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Superb David!
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Thanks for the update David! Do you think that prices will drill straight through the April supply/demand exchange; or do you expect an rally/consolidation?
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4xForecaster PRO smitheric1970
Hello, smitheric1970:

I struggled to answer your question, as I do not abide to the concept of "supply and demand" - In fact, I wrote a long rant on it the erased it, simply stating that there could not be such a thing as "supply" or "demand", since these concepts call for some spontaneous and coordinated responses from "persons" (i.e.: buyers or sellers).

I have abandoned the concept of public participation in the financial markets, and only then did it start to make sense, and did my analyses started to become correct in direction, strength and extent of the market, as well as specific targets. What I did end up doing was to abandon the notion that price is the leading indicator.

Students of my course seldom look at price first. In fact, my entire lessons are based on the study of composite, modified indicators that reveal a whole lot more information about where price could go. The behavior of indicators I analyze have a better probability of being right than my own attempt at trying to be right with price.

You just asked, and I sincerely appreciate your kind compliments from it: " ... How did you know that it would fall right through the 42 level support structure? "

I could not have know this without the use of the Predictive/Forecasting Model which is the core and the only tool I use. Price comes last only to anchor a price to the forecast, otherwise it remains out of sight, out of mind, and really out of consideration all together. What the "Model" teaches, besides being right more often than I could ever be myself without it, is the discipline of abandoning all that is taken for granted:

Here is what "we", as institutionally-fed retail traders have been ingesting:

1 - Price is the only true reflection of the market activity: Wrong per my analyses ... I have lost more money trading price by itself, by structures or by patterns alone.
2 - Volume reflects the true interest of the market: Wrong. We now know too well by Wyckoff, that volume can to the very least "decode" an institutional footprint, but large volumes do not mean large price action, and vice-versa, therefore the correlation of the two do not and cannot amount to some reflection of buyers and sellers, since the real actors are intermediary "hands" from market makers.
3 - RSI and other indicators cannot be interpreted as "oversold" or "overbought" when these conditions imply an imminent reversal. In fact, hourly, daily weekly and even monthlu charts will show that RSI can dwell and squat in the "conditions" for days, weeks and months at a time, without showing any sign of respite. So, the temporality that is implied in "overbought" or "oversold", which implies that a correction to the normal range is imminent, is simply absurd and misleading to us, the retail traders.

I could go on and one about misleading concept (divergences in RSI is my biggest pet-peeve, since bullish/bearish divergences are in fact counter-trending to their names, and only after sustained repetitions, or given a specific condition, which I teach in the CROW ode course, would call for a decline in price following a so-called bearish divergence - instead, I urge retail traders to abandon these concepts at once and learn more about positive/negative divergences instead, which are less frequent and thus more valuable, in addition to being quite consistent.

I started to trader in 1997 - I believe I may have lost all the money, time and energy (not counting time away from wife and kids) wasting all of these limited resources against so little gain. I did learn something though, but it was once I was willing to abandon all of the things I had held so closely that I would have been shouting madly at anyone who would have tried to convince me of the contrary, as I am now doing to my general audience (I have about 15,640 followers across TradingView, Twitter, StockTwits, Facebook and LinkedIn), most of whom must think that I am indeed mad and crazy.

However, I simply post what my CROW Code tells me to post, even when I can't even believe it. When I am asked about my opinion, I really do not have one, as I have learned to step aside and stand behind my "Model", or CROW Code ... CROW stands for "Constant Rescaling Of Wavelets", which looks for a conditions in the Model which defines the direction of the market, the strength behind price action (Predictive Analysis), and the extent to which price will move (forecasting) - Hence, this Predictive/Forecasting Model provides a range of probabilities, in addition to telling me whether the underlying timeframe is one that is in control of the rest.

I can be quite chatty on this subject, but it took me many years of research, testing on real price (I only test on real accounts, so that I can control all variables, including emotions) to finally come to the conclusion that one cannot posibly make a trading decision without feeling putting one whole reputation on the line. So, with this model, which literally takes all of the guesswork out and provides the consistency I need, I can say that I really do not have to have an opinion, a desire or a wish as to the market. It simply tells me three things: A "Watch", an "Alert" and a "Signal", right at the moment that is the most important development of the "CROW".

I hope this answers and exceeds, and perhaps preempts other questions you might have had. I am very passionate about what I do, and I am quite opiniated against what has kept me ignorant and in constant losing streaks. The one indicator that caused me the most pain has been price. The worse lessons I have gained from professional traders and coach were those that are the most published, and thus the least scrutinized.

I rant alot about price, and those who now feel the need to gag for hearing me say that "price is the carrot at the end of the stick held by institutional hands" might have to change their spotted shirts once more.

I am very appreciative of your inquiries and following my posts, so please feel free to comment and add further query. I will be shorter next time, now that I have hopefully divulge a bit more of my so called madness.

Best regards,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Olla2314 4xForecaster
Dear David

Could you suggest some books to increase also my "madness" ? :-)
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Hello @Olla2314 - Unless someone can help prove myself wrong, there are no book or lesson I could ever find that gives a step-by-step method to help predict market action or forecast specific targets - Google used for this purpose was:

"lesson book forecast financial market"

There are studies done to suggest what might or might not work, and there are commercial venues selling their own signals, whether they reveal their method or not is not clear.

My method is simply unconventional, turns off a lot of the conventional traders seeking safety in price, and tends to kindle interest in others who have "max'ed out" on generic technical courses and feel that "there's got to be something else better than this carrot cake", so to speak.

David
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Hi David Excellent analysis. Do you expect a bounce once your target is reached at 39.68 or do you think price will slice on thru to your short term target of 30.58? Great work.
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Hello muskie32 - Reasonable expectation in terms of pathway:
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The targets are generated through quantitative data ("CROW Code"), compared to generic Fibonacci projection levels.

David
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coolingla PRO 4xForecaster
Highly unlikely oil will go down to $30 any time soon. $51 is my first target, likely be reach by 10/31/2016.

Let's see what happens in the next 1-2 months.
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coolingla PRO coolingla
Looking back 3 months later, I am sorry to say the author is dead wrong.

And my prediction of $51 is dead right.
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David, in which way do the recent oil movements affect your analysis? Regards
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@abail - I have moved all predictive/forecasting comments to a private signal service. By agreement with TradingView, I cannot offer link or message about it ... Sort of a catch-22, if I even mention about it as in this mere comment.

If and once TradingView offers a private paid room with anonymous members, as I had to do off site, I might be able to speak more of the service. Until then, I might chime in from time to time, but not as overtly and frequently as before.

Feel free to recommend to TradingView that it starts offering a "signal Service" option by its members, as I'd love to keep all of my charting and analyses "within the same house", so to speak.

Warmest regards,


David Alcindor
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David I would be really interested in what update CROW would have on WTI, seems to be diverging from prediction? Is it possible for an update? thanks
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Hello @muskie32 - I have received too many private requests from clients and too many conflicting "warnings" from TradingView about my Forex/stocks/commodity signal service service, that I feel I have to reduce or simply stop my updates, until a more accommodating environment is offered by TradingView.

Understandably, TradingView has to continue to expand by membership, and then keep its members "withing the walls" that it has worked so hard to build. Hence, when traders, instructors and coaches such as myself need to expand their services, it may come a time when there is too little leg-room for it ... Until TradingView makes room for it.

On one hand, I want to use TradingView environment to keep all of my information in here including a signal service in which Forex and commodity predictive analyses and forecasts are first released to clients - But TradingView does not yet host such possibility (i.e.: a private forum in which I release this information, where traders can remain anonymous from one another, which is what ha been the request of most of my clients and students ... Even their aliases is requested to remain unseen from other TradingView users.

Yet on the other hand, TradingView will not allow me to provide any links or references to services I offer outside of TradingView.

My interest is to channel clients to TradingView and keep services all under one and same "TradingView roof". While I continue to support cheerfully the products and services of TradingView, I have to also allow my services to grow and thrive with little impediment. The conflict in which I am left forces me to keep all updates off site, and to delay or completely stop all updates in TradingView, as I am not allowed to promote these services, even if they ultimately generate inbound links and new membership to TradingView.

Until they offer a coveted place in which traders, teachers and coaches such as myself are encouraged to bring in new TradingView clients and offer "in-house" paid services, I have no other choice but to keep a respectful distance from TradingView. I will continue to use their amazing and ever-improving charts.

I hope you understand this conflict, which I know will be resolved in time, as TradingView continues to expand into a more inclusive and accommodating environment.

Warmest regards,


David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster
- Check Twitter.com new hashtag: #CROWSignalService for recent performance records of my services.
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