Crude Oil Forecast and Technical Analysis Week of Jan 14-19
We have entered two short trades in Crude Oil and they both reached the targets. - See attached setups -
As I have mentioned in the channel, the bearish rally was triggered by weekend profit taking purposes. However, there are still concerns over rising U.S. production, and key issues with China that have to be resolved despite favorable trade talks earlier in the week. The market is underpinned by the OPEC-led production cuts.
Fundamentals which will support the Bullish Move
OPEC and Russia began reducing output by 1.2 million barrels per day on January 1. If they maintain their discipline, this move should trim the global supply glut and stabilize prices.
The US and China ended three-days of constructive trade talks which were productive enough to lead to the scheduling of further negotiations later this month. This news has created enough optimism to drive short-sellers out of the market. Positive developments on the trade talks will accelerate the bullish move.
Fundamentals which will support the Bearish Move
Concerns over the Global Growth – especially China – could add weight on the price. Most analysts have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts below 3 % for 2019.
Increasing U.S. production, which is expected to climb above 12 million bpd this month (Last two week’s EIA Data support this concern), the possibility OPEC and its allies will lose their discipline and US-China trade relations.
Technical Overview and Key Levels:
WTI Crude Oil prices rejected EMA 50 / Daily Resistance and pulled back. Crude Oil ended week at 51.59 in the upper Bollinger Band / H4 Chart.
The price is well above EMA 50 and EMA 100 / H4 Chart. Bullish move will continue as long as the WTI prices holds above 51.17.
The midterm bearish scenario would be triggered at the breakout of 51.17. As seen on the H4 Chart, we may see the prices testing the broken trend line where EMA 50/EMA 100 resides at 49.40-49.20.
A potential retest of this level can be used as buying opportunity.
As seen on the below chart, a potential Bullish Shark Pattern formation can be used as long opportunity. – I will publish the details of the pattern for the members.
We will try to use pullbacks as a buying opportunity and our target will be 54.80.
Have a nive trading week.
As I have mentioned in the channel, the bearish rally was triggered by weekend profit taking purposes. However, there are still concerns over rising U.S. production, and key issues with China that have to be resolved despite favorable trade talks earlier in the week. The market is underpinned by the OPEC-led production cuts.
Fundamentals which will support the Bullish Move
OPEC and Russia began reducing output by 1.2 million barrels per day on January 1. If they maintain their discipline, this move should trim the global supply glut and stabilize prices.
The US and China ended three-days of constructive trade talks which were productive enough to lead to the scheduling of further negotiations later this month. This news has created enough optimism to drive short-sellers out of the market. Positive developments on the trade talks will accelerate the bullish move.
Fundamentals which will support the Bearish Move
Concerns over the Global Growth – especially China – could add weight on the price. Most analysts have downgraded their global economic growth forecasts below 3 % for 2019.
Increasing U.S. production, which is expected to climb above 12 million bpd this month (Last two week’s EIA Data support this concern), the possibility OPEC and its allies will lose their discipline and US-China trade relations.
Technical Overview and Key Levels:
WTI Crude Oil prices rejected EMA 50 / Daily Resistance and pulled back. Crude Oil ended week at 51.59 in the upper Bollinger Band / H4 Chart.
The price is well above EMA 50 and EMA 100 / H4 Chart. Bullish move will continue as long as the WTI prices holds above 51.17.
The midterm bearish scenario would be triggered at the breakout of 51.17. As seen on the H4 Chart, we may see the prices testing the broken trend line where EMA 50/EMA 100 resides at 49.40-49.20.
A potential retest of this level can be used as buying opportunity.
As seen on the below chart, a potential Bullish Shark Pattern formation can be used as long opportunity. – I will publish the details of the pattern for the members.
We will try to use pullbacks as a buying opportunity and our target will be 54.80.
Have a nive trading week.
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