IvanLabrie
Long

Oil WTI: At a critical juncture

TVC:USOIL   WTI Crude Oil
If we don't see bearish follow through within the next 3 sessions we can expect further upside in crude.
I'm long small with a wide stop, and looking to add and tighten the stops soon.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Good progress. I'll add to longs aggressively on a break of today's high after the close, and will tighten the stop loss to today's low.
Comment: Testing lower levels of support. I'm out but will reenter on a new daily high.
Trade closed manually
Trade active: Clearly, bulls now in control, let's see for how long.
Trade closed manually
Comment: (oil could remain sideways, in a triangle here, but, if it breaks resistance above, it could rally really strongly)

This is when fundamentals kick in, OPEC members will likely fight for market share with higher prices, so we can expect to remain range-bound for a long time.
Comment: (buy airlines)
Trade closed manually: Good spot to exit oil longs, maybe half, and buy back lower.
Comment: Good time for both the buy, and the sell. We have to wait for 3 days, which matches the open after the OPEC news date.
Comment: The Obama news might create some volatility: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/siding-saudi-arabia-obama-vetoes-sept-11-bill-passed-unanimously-congress

I'll be looking closely at oil, to jump back in the long. I expect the trend to turn wildly bullish after we break up from this range. For now, it seems like the monthly resistance needs time to break:

snapshot


It can break it by the end of the month, or in 2 more months, as a minimum, it can also take more time than that, but when it breaks up, it has between 46% and 140% upside. So, buy dips to the bottom of the range, sell partially at the top.
Price probably won't go too far down due to fundamentals.
Comment: *buy dips at the bottom of the range
Comment: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-19/at-500-million-a-pop-it-s-an-oil-gamble-that-has-no-precedent

This might be relevant.
Next week will be interesting,

Oil Tumbles To $44 Handle After Saudis Confirm "No Decision" Next Week, Fed Crackdown On Bank Commodity Holdings

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-23/oil-tumbles-44-handle-after-saudis-confirm-no-decision-next-week
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thanks Ivan :)
+1 Reply
Welcome, good luck!
Reply
The hard flush down to clear out the longs?
+1 Reply
Yes, precisely.
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