IvanLabrie
Long

USOIL: Weekly uptrend signal pending confirmation

TVC:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
If we see oil             hit the 47.99 handle before the close on Friday, we can expect a sizeable rally to take place. If we do break above the monthly resistance above, validating this signal, the targets are, in order of probability: 58.21, 65.63 and 80.67.
Right now, this would appear like a mad man's delusion, but, it's what the chart shows as logical, and probable if all trade parameters are followed.
The next step, if you took the long when I called it, is to let the trade run, for the next two weeks, examining activity to validate the uptrend, or discard it.

Stay tuned for updates,

Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Leave a comment below if you caught the entry from my previous 2 ideas.
Comment: We hit the range expansion threshold today in the weekly chart. Daily close was right above the Jackson Hole key level, so we have good odds of continuing higher.
Good luck!
Comment: We'll add to $USOIL by Friday
snapshot
Price has to hit 51.76 within the next 3 weeks (including this one), target is over 58...
Comment: Daily target for today might not get hit:

snapshot


We can either close half, or simply wait and add if it dips.
Trade active: The weekly chart has a valid long setup here, stop at June 24th's daily low (Brexit).
2.72R potential or more. Risk 0.5-1%
Comment: Holding this position for the long term.
Additionally I'm taking swing trades without closing it.

This is good: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/russians-and-saudis-pledge-joint-effort-to-limit-oil-production

Add to it EIA data on Wednesday and we'll have a massive surge.
Where is a good entry now? Do you think it goes back to 46.2?
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO vahid.aliz
You can buy dips, stop has to be under 44.93, you could half at market now, and add if it falls a bit under 46.17.
Risk 0.5-1% on the first entry, and the same amount on the second one, if we fall under 46.17 in the next 3 sessions (I doubt it).
Then, once we break 47.99, you can hold it and aim for the weekly targets on chart.
Reply
vahid.aliz IvanLabrie
Thanks.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO vahid.aliz
Did you buy today under 47?
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vahid.aliz IvanLabrie
Yes, I bought at 46.6 and closed at 47.5, It was a good trade. Looking to enter again. Thank you Ivan.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO vahid.aliz
You'll have to sacrifice the entry a bit to join, probably not giving any good chance for people who see the 'trendline break' now. Late comers...
You can enter if price goes under your exit, place a stop at your previous entry. This way you risk your profit only.
Size of the trade should be equal.

If price never comes under your entry, within 3 bars, just enter at market, and trim size to fit a 0.5-1% risk with stop at your previous entry.
Reply
I am long as well and find your idea very interesting. I am still largely in my education phase a lot so have nothing of value to add here, but just that I have followed you and look forward to your updates!
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SharkbaitAl
Cool, thanks for the comment.
When did you enter? Followed my previous post setup?
If so, we can hold patiently for now. Good luck to us all.
Reply
SharkbaitAl IvanLabrie
I bought in on the re-test of yesterday's bullish pit close around 46.65. I had a tight stop loss and it worked out well. Unfortunately I had not seen your other ideas or would have saved another buck. But better late than never, looking forward to seeing how this plays out (patiently, lol)
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SharkbaitAl
Yes, that's a good entry still.
It shouldn't really go back under the blue box (monthly mode resistance).
+1 Reply
SharkbaitAl IvanLabrie
Thanks Ivan, I will keep my eye open for that range...I actually had 47.25-46.75 marked as a potential resistance zone so pretty proud of myself lol.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SharkbaitAl
Good, you can find a few patterns on your own, but it needs a lot of forward testing, to find a workable method.
So it's either that, or using someone else's system.
Reply
SharkbaitAl IvanLabrie
Yes I have learned that the hard way unfortunately...a month or so ago it cost me nearly all of my profits from the previous 3 months to realize I had been on a good streak but still very much a beginner. So it's been back to learning and publishing private ideas for the purpose of forward testing, taking only a few small positions when my set-up is confirmed by other reputable members or when the risk/reward is very good. I still have a long way to go but I am excited for it.
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SharkbaitAl
You will find it's a balancing act: r/r vs win rate, vs amount of trades generated per X time period. The system part, then the execution is a whole different level.
Good luck, if you have any questions let me know.
Reply
SharkbaitAl IvanLabrie
Thanks, that is a helpful way to look at it. Luckily I enjoy math (I am actually currently a math teacher) so kind of enjoy doing these calculations/analyses! I appreciate your comments/feedback and your offer. Good luck to you as well, I will keep in touch -- Alex
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO SharkbaitAl
Cool, well, the method I use, is largely derived from statistics in a way, and in psychology and observing connections between fundamental events and repeatable chart patterns. But, the statistics is a big part of how you apply the trading system, and how to account for its performance, so you have a nice headstart there. :)
Cheers!
+1 Reply
In at 45.84. $75 would certainly be nice!
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footprint analysis
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IvanLabrie PRO RuhailKhan
Hi, what do you mean?
Reply
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