__SpecialFX__

Critical Area for Oil - Make or Break Levels

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
Oil             is on the verge of breaking a channel that dates back to the initial bullish move from late August

It's still very early on the in the 4H Candle, but a break here can expose lows at 37.73 and potentially trigger further selling pressure to even take out that support. A close of the 4H can provide a clear signal for Oil             here.
aslamhammad
a year ago
break is possible to 38$ :)
+1 Reply
jhakas
a year ago
oil is in falling seasonal months.. it will continue down till mid march... and ucad on rise... i am expecting 32
+1 Reply
__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
I agree. Although I find it interesting that several charts are showing potential signs of temporary CAD strength (GBPCAD, CADJPY, USDCAD), Yet Oil is not showing any signs of slowing down. I suppose the meeting on Friday will be the catalyst for direction for the next little while. One of the charts here is showing a fake out, trying to determine which one.
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jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
I follow your usdcad deals.. as you trade ucad really very nice.. but walk of usdcad is v. tricky... it is keep on making supports and rising up.. and then to wash sl. of buyers after some consolidation it make a dip and then up..

When market wants to take uj and ucad.. i see same consolidation.. and these both pairs are doing this from last 2 years.. and especially months of nov. dec. and jan. are extremely bullish months for both these pairs.. even though charts of ucad seems strange.. but i am bullish..

well now you can see reversals or change in trend in currencies.. euro back below 1.08.. and today gu also dumped down... uj already in bullish territory and ucad too... so soon aud and nu to join.. downside..
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__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
USDCAD Has certainly been a frustrating trade since I switched to the bearish side. I was a bit premature in calling the bat pattern last week. I was looking for that pattern to trigger the downside. All week I've been waiting for another high, which we got today, and now the bat pattern is active. This should be the final up in the pair. For most of the week, traders have been buying the push down to the trendline, which now marks the "stop run" area. My conviction on the short side is now higher then ever. If we do however take out today's high, it would mean my analysis is incorrect and I'll once again start looking at the bullish side.
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jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
check this weekly chart... just with 20 ema... see how nicely it is holding up ucad up... you can check last time when ucad fallen below it.. and then check its rise upside... and second time it fallen below that weekly 20 ema below 1.29.. and then you can see rise again...

So my point is if ucad holds that 20 ema on weekly... then i see ucad towards massive rise.. as you can see last time it fall below weekly ema was below 1.22 and then you can see rise of 1.34... and now ucad is in bullish months... i see ucad only buy on dips..

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__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
Sounds like I'm even more bullish than you are. I'm looking for a minor pull back to roughly 1.3150/1.3200 or maybe even where your 20 ema is. That would complete the correction, at which point I'll be looking to go long targeting the 1.37 area.
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jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
agree..!!! market will flush buyers sl. before rising... but i see fall limited towards.. do not expect fall below 1.32.. but just my view..!! Friday is a rising day for ucad.. usually it is bullish on fridays.. and on thursday it give dip... i will look for dip tomorrow... if it remain in consolidation up above 1.33 then i see new high on friday..
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__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
There you go, I think we're on the same page now!
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jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
yes we are both bullish.. but your deals are always awesome..!!
+1 Reply
jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
check this daily chart as well.... since it rose from 1.315.. it never close daily candle below 20 ema on daily chart... see how nicely it is holding up...

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__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
There is a scenario where the correction already completed at 1.3285 - but the fact that GBPCAD just started a new leg to resume it's downtrend, signals to me potential for further downside. So unless the GBPUSD completely falls apart, it allows for further correction in USDCAD. Personally I think it's best not to short USDCAD, rather wait for a lower level to enter long, or wait for the pair to clear this 1.34 area. Because just as clearly as your chart shows it holding the EMA, it also clearly shows the struggle to close higher than 1.3365 over the last few weeks, despite many attempts.
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jhakas __SpecialFX__
a year ago
agree.. usdcad is beast now a days.. every time it falls it rise on second day.. and thats resilience and I take that resilience of ucad bullish cuz i know it is in seasonal bullish months.. and u can see oil.. giving good signal...

But, this pair is dam bad in falling as well :) last time i saw 150 pips fall in some minutes and dam up again with new high..
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__SpecialFX__ PRO jhakas
a year ago
And I agree that the trends favor a bullish USD, but take a look at the Dollar Index - if there's ever a time for a pull back from a technical perspective, this would be it. Still over 2 weeks to the Dec Meeting, at this point I don't expect USD strength to kick in until mid next week at it's earliest.
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