US Oil - Long

This is an ideal buying area for Oil, Buy volume on the 4 hr has been outpacing sell volume, typically what i want to see at trend reversals. Stop loss around $63 looks fine. A close below 65, i would start to look toward the $40 area. However, if the long plays out targets are T1:85 ish T2: 95ish T3: 110 ish

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Looking good, $77-78 by end of month

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the end of month prediction likely wont be accurate. I still like the trade as long as the stop loss region holds. Time horizon for the targets above is a few months out toward the end of the year.

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Patience will be needed with this trade, however i still like the look of it. Expecting this long idea to work out over the next 4-6 months. Macro issues support the long narrative imo when it comes to shale growth falling.

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Approaching $77 as anticipated, typically the area to shave some off after a 15% swing trade. If you have followed along that is a nice sell area. On a high time frame basis i do think the major resistance band will break given time.

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At resistance as expected. Holding from a buy area of $65 is still a great look. I think we push break upwards out of this resistance band. But short-term drawdown to $71-73 wouldnt shock me.

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Resistance broke, if it retests i expect $76 followed by a move to $83

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$83 has been hit. Looking on a weekly time frame i believe this move still has legs to run. However, looking at the 4 hour time frame RSI has bearish divergences hinting this rally might be exhausted in the short term. Tempted to close this trade.

However, being in since $66 has been about a 25% gain. I do like this long over the next few months. A small correction first would not surprise me.

Comment:

Target 1 has been hit: recommending closing 75% of the trade for a 30% gain. Will let the rest ride toward target 2. Appreciate those who have followed along.

Trade closed: target reached