LastBattle
Long

Too slippery to fall

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
1006 35 11
Pretty clear by now, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) have been developing a megaphone-like consolidation since January, 2015.
The new lows made just a week ago is positively diverged, without having new lows on RSI which is a big buy signal.

Open: 46.61
S/L: 45.20
T/P: 54.11/ 58.77

Dollar analysis:
Dollar pullback


In my opinion, the Baker Hughes             Rig count is nothing more than a distraction of what the market intends to do. I'm bullish in oil             in the short term and long term. It does not matter if the rig count decline in speed/velocity or not, the market will always have their excuse of why its going up after; when technicals have long confirmed that.
One step at a time?
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This could be very bullish with a break of red upper trendline
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you could be very right
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your take? oil bottomed out? given that there's predictions of 35$-40$ range?
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if only if this channel is right, price would want 34-35 depending how fast it wants to go
IMHV
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Short term there's chance to bounce above 58 , but in mid term 35~40 in my opinion is still not out of the woods yet.
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imo KING DOLLAR can still move yet high (only thing remains to be seen is if its the final high) but the idea you laid out about *setting up the divergence* makes perfect sense to me.

Cheers!
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jangseohee SPYderCrusher
you mean this one i suppose ^_^
it is a baseless hypothesis
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hehe oops yeah got confused, d'oh :D
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LastBattle SPYderCrusher
max pullback I'm expecting for DXY is until 93 :) Not too much...
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jangseohee LastBattle
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LastBattle jangseohee
yeah.. looks great :)
retesting that
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jangseohee LastBattle
Fed look at the charts :-)
and history does repeats in cycle
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Yes...yes .... aaaannnd agree
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LastBattle jangseohee
when the old fat lady sings :D
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My 2 cents : It´s a mistake to be precise for very long term charts . It should be used as reference. And the history reference is still USD bearish. If we take the USD for even longer timeframe, USD lost 99% of its value.
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that statistic is mis-cited -- dollar may have lost 99% of purchasing power relative to some moment 60 yrs ago, but in the same period wages are vastly higher, standard of life is vastly higher, medical treatments are vastly improved, life expectancy is much higher -- the list goes on and on. It's a misnomer to pretend we live in this world where the dollar is worth nothing and everything else is commensurately the same as the past.

ps: dollar is going higher :D
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Realisto_FX PRO SPYderCrusher
Good luck :-) , I´m current short USD till proven otherwise
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definitely. And same to you
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Daily trend still targeting 54. No sell signal in the lower timeframe yet (1h~4h)
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hit that dynamic level at ~52 almost too beautifully to comprehend
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LastBattle SPYderCrusher
That panic leg coming out of the Yemen war was totally unexpected :D Of course, it calls for panic dump too.

I was just expecting a slow and sluggish rise to 52~54.
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jangseohee LastBattle
hi Lastbattle, no worries, in fact it is still possible because of the latest price development
a potential inverted IHS? As long as 46 holds, it is not that bleak
but more often than not this one time incident is what i call Knee Jerk reaction (not even a black swan), once the attack is over, they find that "Oops" the oil supply become 2x oversupply, this will drive the price even lower :-)

When price is in a steady downtrend, no amount of good news can reverse it but only causing temporary spike, v.v.
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LastBattle jangseohee
I'll still follow trends and technicals, ignoring that over supply issue completely. Look at the spike today because of the slight dip in oil production, which completely overshadow the glut supply issue.
Most often, the intention of the market may already be written on charts. It just need a reason to justify (a.k.a the mentality of the majority of traders out there: "Why does this rally? If there's no reason, why would they sell/buy it") BUT... are they really reading the news if sometimes the price rallied even on bearish analysis prediction? I've witness this many times after moving on from Bitcoin to other markets like oil/stocks.

Some examples:
Greece debt being extended:
Another classic example of buy the rumor, sell the news.

FXCM missed its quarter, but why did it rally?:
FXCM breakout



Overall its in a steady downtrend, but this megaphone is in the process of reversing it. After all we already had 60% drop in price so far.
$20 said by anal-yst like Citibank is simply a bear's wet dream in my opinion :D

My believe is that oil must be higher than what it takes to pump it out.
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Updates...

4 hour:
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Daily capped at max 77:
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jangseohee LastBattle
so is this up - a retracement of a downtrend or the double bottom has set it?
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First take profit target is almost there.
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Good to take a bit of profit here, near resistance of 54...
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shoot I mean to send this earlier.....but yeah:

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LastBattle SPYderCrusher
yep :) nailed it
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Watch this level... I might take profit fully if it fails.
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jangseohee LastBattle
you are right
i thought i see another wedge
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I think (fingers crossed!) oil can run a little farther...

apologize in advance for outside link spam:

1.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585915732220710912
2.) https://twitter.com/SPYder_Crusher/status/585551333702393856
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LastBattle SPYderCrusher
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/crude-pops-after-smaller-expected-api-inventory-build-cushing-capacity-concerns-rema

Shorting 54 for the past 3 months have been SUPER easy for traders on the past few months.
With a relatively good fundamental reason, I'm guessing that a short squeeze might take us up 54 this time.

I think 58 is possible depending on what happen on US market opening tomorrow.
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Short trade waiting... close to the top of the megaphone now
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