TimStuyts
Short

Oil update and price action projection

FX:USOIL   Crude Oil (WTI)
736 14 16
In my previous post I mentioned several scenario's and now it is more clear in terms of what to expect. The bearish move in Oil             boosted our USDCAD             long but now I will start really focusing on trading Oil             .

I showed 3 strong zones in the chart, 42-38-35. I expect to see a response to all of these zones and will therefore be trading these levels from lower time frames. I will take partial profit at intra day targets and move the rest of the position to break even. I think that Oil             is making an ABC correcting on the higher time frames with wave A at 51.5 and wave B currently in progress. So this is why I will keep 50% on the table once I start buying because I see 60 as minimum target IF we see the reversal.

Follow me for updates because I will update once price hits these zones because oil             will most likely present trades for both bulls and bears in the near future.

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Comment: First possible trade set-up.
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Comment:
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Comment: I adjusted my wave count to a better fit of recent price action. If price consolidates on lower time frames after Friday's response to 40.60 I will buy the third leg higher. Keep in mind that I'm looking for a continuation towards 60 once this correction from 51.50 ends and therefore will keep 50% open once price hits my daily targets in case price breaks higher from here. (keep an open mind)
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So you think a good chance oil bounces here to 42.90?
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TimStuyts tbuckle
Yes I do think that is likely, I personally was busy shorting dollar index during FOMC and used a pending buy for oil at 41.70 because of the dynamic of this instrument. Now I will look to add by means of the example I showed in the chart. A 1-2-3 pattern so I can place my stop at break even for the first position. For minimum target I think 42.90 and 43 are likely but I will keep at least 50% open because for me there are three main reversal zones for a move towards 60. I will update tomorrow when we have some more price action out of this 42 zone.
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tbuckle PRO TimStuyts
Thank you for the response kind sir. Do you think the $ will sink much further?
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TimStuyts tbuckle
I expected at least an ABC down and FOMC gave us that wave C down with minimum target 96.70. However I need to see more price action because we have only 3 waves up from the low of 91.875. So it all depends on the structure of lesser degree. I will update my bigger picture analysis tomorrow.
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What do you think about oil already completing the ABC zigzag correction and oil is on its way to re-test the lows
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TimStuyts CJ_pips
I don't know but I'm not interested in selling here and am looking for a buy confirmation by means of a 1-2-3 reversal pattern from this zone from lower time frames (15min and manage the position accordingly). If we move lower I'll let it go and wait for the next reversal zone.
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still a chance to bounce here or is that in the toilet?
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TimStuyts tbuckle
You mean go higher? Certainly possible but I need to see some kind of consolidation first before I'm a potential buyer. If it is ideal I trade, otherwise I stay aside. Plenty of opportunities in the market so I'm not wasting my time on less than ideal set-up;-)
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TimStuyts tbuckle
and by consolidation I mean a 1-2-3 reversal where 1 is the first reversal, 2 the consolidation and 3 the continuation. You can look for this on any time frame you prefer.
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tbuckle PRO TimStuyts
great advice!
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TomPower tbuckle
Looks like 38.86 and the 50 next
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it seems the down trend is over. my stop loss was activated with nice profit.... i know is really early to say, but in 15 min i saw a divergence at 39.8 and now it seems an important impulse with consolidation for up trend continuation, we can see also the 1, 2, 3 reversal...at any case i am waiting to see if the trend line will be broken to buy set up after consolidation. what do you think Tim?
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TimStuyts andreas1
Good job Andreas. I personally wasn't able to trade Oil this week because of my exposure in several Forex pairs. The good thing is that those pairs all moved in my favor. Nevertheless I agree with your view, the 1-2-3 reversal buy after divergence was the way to go from the low of 39.80. I will wait for an impulse and buy after a consolidation, this will happen in case the low is in place. Either just before or after the break out of the channel.
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Thank you for your prompt reply and comments!
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