The upper chart is a seasonal chart with the 2020 and 2022 VIX levels overlaid on one another. It can be observed that there is a strong correlation and they are following the same approximate path starting in late April. This was found by looking at a seasonal overlay of the past years courtesy of the Seasonality (advanced) indicator created by TradingView user @apozdnyakov .
Below the seasonal chart is a continuous chart highlighting the seasonal periods as well as an S&P 500 chart for reference. The price of the S&P in 2020 went up from mid August until the end of August and then dropped in September. The VIX was going up with price at this time as the Softbank gamma squeeze was underway. It’s doubtful that a similar scenario will play out this year but you know never. The main thing to consider is that the VIX is on track to bottom out and then rise to a higher level for some selling which should begin in the late August early September period.
There is still upside left in the S&P but it should find a short-term top as VIX bottoms out.
This is more of an interesting observation, a very speculative prediction, and something to keep an eye on rather than something to base a trade off of. The fact that the 2020 period was the Softbank squeeze lowers the probability of recurrence.
Below the seasonal chart is a continuous chart highlighting the seasonal periods as well as an S&P 500 chart for reference. The price of the S&P in 2020 went up from mid August until the end of August and then dropped in September. The VIX was going up with price at this time as the Softbank gamma squeeze was underway. It’s doubtful that a similar scenario will play out this year but you know never. The main thing to consider is that the VIX is on track to bottom out and then rise to a higher level for some selling which should begin in the late August early September period.
There is still upside left in the S&P but it should find a short-term top as VIX bottoms out.
This is more of an interesting observation, a very speculative prediction, and something to keep an eye on rather than something to base a trade off of. The fact that the 2020 period was the Softbank squeeze lowers the probability of recurrence.