Fundamentals & Sentiment
WTI:
In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside.
USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY is near 155. Also, today's US MoM Retail Sales are expected to be worse than last month - a good environment to trade into the event.
If the Retail Sales come out stronger than expected, it's better to close the position or tighten stops.
Technical & Other
- According to seasonals DXY should stay flat for the next 3 weeks
- WTI sold off sharply on Friday, so the mean reversion of that move makes sense.
Setup: TC(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: UP
Long-term: Uptrend
Min target: range highs
Risk: 0.77%
Entry: Market
WTI:
In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside.
USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY is near 155. Also, today's US MoM Retail Sales are expected to be worse than last month - a good environment to trade into the event.
If the Retail Sales come out stronger than expected, it's better to close the position or tighten stops.
Technical & Other
- According to seasonals DXY should stay flat for the next 3 weeks
- WTI sold off sharply on Friday, so the mean reversion of that move makes sense.
Setup: TC(RTF)
Setup timeframe: 4h
Trigger: 1h
Medium-term: UP
Long-term: Uptrend
Min target: range highs
Risk: 0.77%
Entry: Market
Trade closed manually:
Closed at -0.5R not long after the NY open. After going for the initial stop, market still grew on good business inventory data