XAGUSD: Sell opportunity and multi-year trading plan.

Silver is on a 4 week rebound following the 11.650 bottom made last month. On the 1W chart, this move has recovered 50% of the losses (trading just above the 0.5 Fibonacci) sustained since the decline from the 18.950 Top late in February. This is the reason that the 1W technical indicators are back to being neutral (RSI = 45.325, MACD = -0.562, ADX = 21.014, STOCHRSI = 50.488).

On a bigger scale we can see that since 2014, Silver (XAGUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down, making sharp Lowers Highs and Lower Lows. The current sequence is similar to the one is 2014. After a Lower High and a secondary Top, the price collapsed to a Lower Low. The rebound that followed (where we are at now) stopped on the 1W MA50 (blue trend line) which happened to also be near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

This makes us believe that the top is around the 0.618 Fibonacci and that a new decline may follow for a new Lower Low. We are setting a more reasonable Target Zone though at 11.650 - 12.500.




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