MQP INFINITE REGRESSION #005 PART 5, SILVER OPTIONS DELTA
THIS IS WHY I AM CHOOSING GOLD OVER SILVER (#004 OVER #005) TO EXECUTE THE COMING PRECIOUS METALS SPIKE.
1. Please read previous gold and silver posts for background.
2. The newest relative low silver put in itself is a problem, it almost always precedes a lower low.
3. That low is sitting at 24.40 for spot silver (roughly speaking 22.63 SLV).
4. While first spike for silver looks like 28.75 for spot (roughly 26.67 for SLV).
5. While the second and third spike for silver looks like 31.xx and 34.xx (as of right now, I don't know what SLV would be, you can do the math).
6. While gold curves are still showing 1950 and 2070 for first and second spikes.
7. Gold have been showing theses spike PRIOR TO THE JUNE CRUSH FROM 1865.
8. And the opportunity to change gold's curves are disappearing by every 4-hour bar.
9. Gold's floor looks like 1786 right this second with a bearish surprise at 1768 (THIS WOULD BE A SCREAMING BUY).
10. So 1950/1768 is 10.3% while 28.75/24.40 is 17.8%.
11. If you are trading w/ zero leverage, silver is the obvious choice.
12. If you haven't realized by now, to get to 50:1/100:1 would've have taken 2 steps even if silver curves held at 31.50 and 40.50 for the 2 spikes.
13. That's why I have stated that THE EXPIRATION FOR THE OPTIONS SHOULD BE 8/27 AND NOT 9/07.
14. All things considered gold still offer the best RISK/REWARD bc gold prices are more stable to than silver prices.
15. And yes, I have looked at the option prices.
16. This is not saying that you can't get a better return with 17% silver move over 10% gold move right now (and NO YOU CAN'T, I CHECKED).
17. This is saying that EVEN IF YOU COULD, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE W/O A DOUBT MATERIALLY MORE MEANINGFUL TO CHOOSE SILVER OVER GOLD.
18. EX: When I checked last, I was getting 12X for the gold move and 10X for the silver move (in terms of options return)
19. That number changes by the day.
20. But considering inherently volatility in silver, I need At least 15X in silver return TO EVEN CONSIDER SILVER OVER GOLD.
21. Meaning if silver was showing 14.5X, I WOULD W/O A DOUBT CHOOSE GOLD OVER SILVER.
22. This is basically what is meant by options delta (not just vol in general, but HOW MANY PEOPLE WAGERING ON THAT VOL, essentially how big of a surrpise of it would be).
1. Please read previous gold and silver posts for background.
2. The newest relative low silver put in itself is a problem, it almost always precedes a lower low.
3. That low is sitting at 24.40 for spot silver (roughly speaking 22.63 SLV).
4. While first spike for silver looks like 28.75 for spot (roughly 26.67 for SLV).
5. While the second and third spike for silver looks like 31.xx and 34.xx (as of right now, I don't know what SLV would be, you can do the math).
6. While gold curves are still showing 1950 and 2070 for first and second spikes.
7. Gold have been showing theses spike PRIOR TO THE JUNE CRUSH FROM 1865.
8. And the opportunity to change gold's curves are disappearing by every 4-hour bar.
9. Gold's floor looks like 1786 right this second with a bearish surprise at 1768 (THIS WOULD BE A SCREAMING BUY).
10. So 1950/1768 is 10.3% while 28.75/24.40 is 17.8%.
11. If you are trading w/ zero leverage, silver is the obvious choice.
12. If you haven't realized by now, to get to 50:1/100:1 would've have taken 2 steps even if silver curves held at 31.50 and 40.50 for the 2 spikes.
13. That's why I have stated that THE EXPIRATION FOR THE OPTIONS SHOULD BE 8/27 AND NOT 9/07.
14. All things considered gold still offer the best RISK/REWARD bc gold prices are more stable to than silver prices.
15. And yes, I have looked at the option prices.
16. This is not saying that you can't get a better return with 17% silver move over 10% gold move right now (and NO YOU CAN'T, I CHECKED).
17. This is saying that EVEN IF YOU COULD, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE W/O A DOUBT MATERIALLY MORE MEANINGFUL TO CHOOSE SILVER OVER GOLD.
18. EX: When I checked last, I was getting 12X for the gold move and 10X for the silver move (in terms of options return)
19. That number changes by the day.
20. But considering inherently volatility in silver, I need At least 15X in silver return TO EVEN CONSIDER SILVER OVER GOLD.
21. Meaning if silver was showing 14.5X, I WOULD W/O A DOUBT CHOOSE GOLD OVER SILVER.
22. This is basically what is meant by options delta (not just vol in general, but HOW MANY PEOPLE WAGERING ON THAT VOL, essentially how big of a surrpise of it would be).