XAGUSD Silver - Daily - Update on the Uptrend

FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
642 11 11
Friday Morning 8:47AM Jan 30, 2015

Sellers may look like they are in control with the large range decline yesterday, but they are not in control from a simple technical measure that I like to follow. If you track the levels where the market gets oversold and those levels are at higher and higher levels, then you are in an uptrend. This is what we are seeing in Silver             now. So, because the reading of -100 in CCI (11) is at 16.92 versus the previous levels of 15.67 and 15.45, we can say that the market is in an uptrend. I have also marked out the levels where the sellers have driven the market down to oversold (in light red).

After silver             finds its balance again after the latest round of selling on expiration week to stop out the weak speculators, silver             looks very strong to begin its upward march again to continue the 17.46% gain it had YTD back on the 22nd of January.

Also - I have plotted green lines to mark all of the levels that are good support areas from where buyers have driven the price of silver             up to overbought levels.

With rates falling to negative in the Eurozone, it makes the argument for owning metals that much more compelling, especially on top of endless quantitative credit-expansion. The quantity of currency floating around versus the quantity of metals available is shifting dramatically in favor of a longer term rally in the metals (silver-gold-platinum). Only one caveat is that lower oil             prices makes the production of gold             cheaper, which may spur additional production and supply to the market due to the increase profit margin from mining gold             .

If the price of silver             gets much under $16, then I will need to reign in my shorter term bullishness for silver             . I noted on the chart a more conservative target that was reached using the "Time at Mode Methodology" by eliminating the massive spike down to $14 overnight in Silver             back on December 1st. You can see the market topped out at that level and is pulling back towards the most frequent price around the $16.50 area.

Tim 9:03AM Friday, January 30, 2015 16.88 last

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Great call Tim. I'm long from 17.1 on XAGUSD and looking to join in the fun.

Within a fraction of a penny of the target getting reached. Sometimes you get lucky - once in awhile.
If you bought at 2015-01-05 you are a buyer.
Speaking of which many of them also did so. I'd say: all of them :)

I project Gold to drop down to $800, Silver to $9, EURUSD at least to 0.98. USDCHF recover back to 1.02, OIL drown to $35, BTCUSD down to $10.
timwest Patladj.
@Patladj - I hope you produce charts with entries and I'll follow your ideas.
17.219, nice ;)
Still more to come.
And the long entry triggered on the dip after I published this chart.
+1 Reply
Silver up to 17.055 as I type.... a decent advance already.
nice chart Tim, thanks for sharing.

what do you mean when you say buy against green? i'm still learning forex speak :)
Oh - It means to buy against the green support lines I have drawn. I designate those green lines as areas where buyers were driving the price up and therefore, we can expect or at least test to see if they are still there on the way back down. So, "buy against green" means buy dips back to those levels.
WeeMee timwest
thanks, now it all makes sense.
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