timwest
Long

XAGUSD Silver - Daily - Update on the Uptrend

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
626 11 10
Friday Morning 8:47AM Jan 30, 2015

Sellers may look like they are in control with the large range decline yesterday, but they are not in control from a simple technical measure that I like to follow. If you track the levels where the market gets oversold and those levels are at higher and higher levels, then you are in an uptrend. This is what we are seeing in Silver             now. So, because the reading of -100 in CCI (11) is at 16.92 versus the previous levels of 15.67 and 15.45, we can say that the market is in an uptrend. I have also marked out the levels where the sellers have driven the market down to oversold (in light red).

After silver             finds its balance again after the latest round of selling on expiration week to stop out the weak speculators, silver             looks very strong to begin its upward march again to continue the 17.46% gain it had YTD back on the 22nd of January.

Also - I have plotted green lines to mark all of the levels that are good support areas from where buyers have driven the price of silver             up to overbought levels.

With rates falling to negative in the Eurozone, it makes the argument for owning metals that much more compelling, especially on top of endless quantitative credit-expansion. The quantity of currency floating around versus the quantity of metals available is shifting dramatically in favor of a longer term rally in the metals (silver-gold-platinum). Only one caveat is that lower oil             prices makes the production of gold             cheaper, which may spur additional production and supply to the market due to the increase profit margin from mining gold             .

If the price of silver             gets much under $16, then I will need to reign in my shorter term bullishness for silver             . I noted on the chart a more conservative target that was reached using the "Time at Mode Methodology" by eliminating the massive spike down to $14 overnight in Silver             back on December 1st. You can see the market topped out at that level and is pulling back towards the most frequent price around the $16.50 area.

Tim 9:03AM Friday, January 30, 2015 16.88 last

Subscribe to my indicator package KEY HIDDEN LEVELS $20/mo or a discount for a year and join in the trading room KEY HIDDEN LEVELS here at TradingView.com
Great breakdown, this strategy has given great results over time, as usual, you bring a compelling point with this bullish case.
+1 Reply
WeeMee
2 years ago
nice chart Tim, thanks for sharing.

what do you mean when you say buy against green? i'm still learning forex speak :)
Reply
timwest PRO WeeMee
2 years ago
Oh - It means to buy against the green support lines I have drawn. I designate those green lines as areas where buyers were driving the price up and therefore, we can expect or at least test to see if they are still there on the way back down. So, "buy against green" means buy dips back to those levels.
Reply
WeeMee timwest
2 years ago
thanks, now it all makes sense.
Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
Silver up to 17.055 as I type.... a decent advance already.
Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
And the long entry triggered on the dip after I published this chart.
+1 Reply
17.219, nice ;)
Still more to come.
Reply
Patladj.
2 years ago
If you bought at 2015-01-05 you are a buyer.
Speaking of which many of them also did so. I'd say: all of them :)

I project Gold to drop down to $800, Silver to $9, EURUSD at least to 0.98. USDCHF recover back to 1.02, OIL drown to $35, BTCUSD down to $10.
Reply
timwest PRO Patladj.
2 years ago
@Patladj - I hope you produce charts with entries and I'll follow your ideas.
Reply
timwest PRO
2 years ago
Within a fraction of a penny of the target getting reached. Sometimes you get lucky - once in awhile.
Reply
luke1827 PRO
2 years ago
Great call Tim. I'm long from 17.1 on XAGUSD and looking to join in the fun.

Aggressive Long Silver Trade with 2.5:1 Reward to Risk
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out